布鲁氏菌病是由多种危险因素驱动的典型人畜共患病,包括环境。本研究旨在探讨环境因素对人类布鲁氏菌病高发地区的驱动作用。这提供了理解和意义减轻疾病传播风险之间的多系统之间的人-动物-环境界面的基础上,预防和控制布鲁氏菌病。基于人类布鲁氏菌病和环境变量的月度时间序列数据,应用带解释变量的季节自回归综合移动平均模型(SARIMAX)评估环境指标与人类布鲁氏菌病发病率(IHB)之间的关联。结果表明,在研究期间有明显的季节性波动,从4月到8月倾向于攀升。大气压力,降水,相对湿度,平均温度,日照时间,归一化植被指数显著驱动IHB。此外,最优模型为SARIMAX(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型,归一化植被指数(β=0.349,P=0.036)和平均温度(β=0.133,P=0.046)滞后6个月,降水滞后1个月(β=-0.090,P=0.004)。我们的研究表明,环境危险因素与人类布鲁氏菌病感染之间存在关联,这可以通过基于“一个健康”概念的综合预防和干预策略,在多系统界面中减轻环境驱动因素的传播风险。
Brucellosis is a typical zoonosis driven by various risk factors, including environmental ones. The present study aimed to explore the driving effect of environmental factors on human brucellosis in a high incidence rate area, which provides understanding and implications in mitigating disease transmission risk in a multi-system between the human-animal-environment interface for preventing and controlling brucellosis based on the One Health concept. Based on the monthly time series data of human brucellosis and environmental variables, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was applied to assess the association between environmental indicators and human brucellosis incidence (IHB). The results indicated distinct seasonal fluctuation during the study duration, tending to climb from April to August. Atmospheric pressure, precipitation, relative humidity, mean temperature, sunshine duration, and normalized difference vegetation index significantly drive IHB. Moreover, the well-fitting and predicting capability were performed and assessed in the optimal model was the SARIMAX (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model with the normalized difference vegetation index (β = 0.349, P = 0.036) and mean temperature (β = 0.133, P = 0.046) lagged in 6 months, and the precipitation lagged in 1 month (β = -0.090, P = 0.004). Our study suggests the association between environmental risk factors and human brucellosis infection, which can be contributed to mitigating the transmission risk in the environmental drivers in a multi-system interface through comprehensive prevention and intervention strategies based on the One Health concept.