目的:为了预测舌鳞状细胞癌(SCC)患者的预后,本研究旨在建立一个临床有用且值得信赖的预后列线图.
方法:监测,流行病学,和最终结果(SEER)计划用于编制2010年至2015年之间的舌鳞状细胞癌患者的临床信息。使用在RStudio软件的帮助下创建的预后列线图来预测特定患者的癌症特异性存活(CSS)和总体存活(OS)的可能性。使用一致性指数(C指数)和决策曲线分析评估列线图的预测能力,将列线图校准为1-,2-,3-,5-,和10年的CSS和操作系统。
结果:本研究纳入了6453例患者。主要队列(3895)和验证队列(2558)均被随机分配。性,年龄,肿瘤淋巴结转移(TNM)分期,手术,化疗,和辐射是OS的重要危险因素,而年龄,TNM阶段,手术,化疗,和放疗是CSS的显著危险因素。此外,C指数和校准曲线表明,两个队列中的预后列线图预测和实际观察结果将非常一致。
结论:本研究中创建的预测列线图可以为舌癌患者提供定制治疗和生存风险评估。
OBJECTIVE: In order to predict the patients\' prognosis with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), this
study set out to develop a clinically useful and trustworthy prognostic nomogram.
METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program was used to compile clinical information on patients with tongue SCC between 2010 and 2015. The likelihood of Cancer-Specific Survival (CSS) and Overall Survival (OS) for specific patients was predicted using a prognostic nomogram created with the help of the RStudio software. The nomogram\'s predictive ability was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index) and decision curve analysis, and the nomogram was calibrated for 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS and OS.
RESULTS: Patients numbering 6453were enrolled in this
study. The primary cohort (3895) and validation cohort (2558) were each randomly assigned. Sex, age, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation were significant risk factors for OS, whereas age, TNM stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy were significant risk factors for CSS. Additionally, C-index and calibration curves indicated that the prognostic nomogram prediction and the actual observation in both cohorts would be very coherent.
CONCLUSIONS: The predictive nomogram created in this
study can offer patients with tongue SCC customized treatment and survival risk assessment.