machine learning model

机器学习模型
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    滑坡是世界上最具破坏性的自然灾害之一。滑坡灾害的准确建模和预测已被用作滑坡灾害防治的重要工具。目的探讨耦合模型在滑坡敏感性评价中的应用。本文以威信县为研究对象。首先,根据构建的滑坡目录数据库,研究区域有345次滑坡。选择了12个环境因素,包括地形(海拔,斜坡,斜坡方向,平面曲率,和轮廓曲率),地质结构(地层岩性和与断裂带的距离),气象水文学(年平均降雨量和与河流的距离),和土地覆盖(NDVI,土地利用,和到道路的距离)。然后,单一模型(逻辑回归,支持向量机,和随机森林)和耦合模型(IV-LR,IV-SVM,IV-RF,FR-LR,FR-SVM,和FR-RF)基于信息量和频率比构建,并对模型的准确性和可靠性进行了比较分析。最后,讨论了最优模型下环境因素对滑坡敏感性的影响。结果表明,9种模型的预测精度在75.2%(LR模型)到94.9%(FR-RF模型)之间,耦合精度普遍高于单一模型。因此,耦合模型在一定程度上提高了模型的预测精度。FR-RF耦合模型的精度最高。在最优模型FR-RF下,距离道路,NDVI,土地利用是最重要的三个环境因素,占20.15%,13.37%,和9.69%,分别。因此,威信县有必要加强对道路附近山区和植被稀疏地区的监测,以防止人类活动和降雨造成滑坡。
    A landslide is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world. The accurate modeling and prediction of landslide hazards have been used as some of the vital tools for landslide disaster prevention and control. The purpose of this study was to explore the application of coupling models in landslide susceptibility evaluation. This paper used Weixin County as the research object. First, according to the landslide catalog database constructed, there were 345 landslides in the study area. Twelve environmental factors were selected, including terrain (elevation, slope, slope direction, plane curvature, and profile curvature), geological structure (stratigraphic lithology and distance from fault zone), meteorological hydrology (average annual rainfall and distance to rivers), and land cover (NDVI, land use, and distance to roads). Then, a single model (logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest) and a coupled model (IV-LR, IV-SVM, IV-RF, FR-LR, FR-SVM, and FR-RF) based on information volume and frequency ratio were constructed, and the accuracy and reliability of the models were compared and analyzed. Finally, the influence of environmental factors on landslide susceptibility under the optimal model was discussed. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the nine models ranged from 75.2% (LR model) to 94.9% (FR-RF model), and the coupling accuracy was generally higher than that of the single model. Therefore, the coupling model could improve the prediction accuracy of the model to a certain extent. The FR-RF coupling model had the highest accuracy. Under the optimal model FR-RF, distance from the road, NDVI, and land use were the three most important environmental factors, ac-counting for 20.15%, 13.37%, and 9.69%, respectively. Therefore, it was necessary for Weixin County to strengthen the monitoring of mountains near roads and areas with sparse vegetation to prevent landslides caused by human activities and rainfall.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19大流行对集装箱运输产生了重大影响。准确预测集装箱吞吐量对决策者和港口当局至关重要,特别是在COVID-19大流行的异常事件的背景下。在本文中,我们首先提出了单变量时间序列预测的混合模型,以提高预测精度,同时消除非线性和多变量的限制。接下来,我们比较了不同训练数据集扩展和预测范围的不同模型的预测精度。最后,我们分析了COVID-19大流行对集装箱吞吐量预测和集装箱运输的影响。为了说明和验证,对长三角地区的集装箱吞吐量进行了实证分析。误差指标分析表明,与其他模型相比,SARIMA-LSTM2和SARIMA-SVR2(配置2)具有最佳性能,并且可以在COVID-19大流行等异常事件的背景下更好地预测集装箱运输。结果还表明,随着训练数据集扩展的增加,提高了模型的准确性,特别是与标准统计模型(即SARIMA模型)相比。准确的预测可以帮助战略管理层和政策制定者更好地应对COVID-19大流行的负面影响。
    The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on container transportation. Accurate forecasting of container throughput is critical for policymakers and port authorities, especially in the context of the anomalous events of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we firstly proposed hybrid models for univariate time series forecasting to enhance prediction accuracy while eliminating the nonlinearity and multivariate limitations. Next, we compared the forecasting accuracy of different models with various training dataset extensions and forecasting horizons. Finally, we analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on container throughput forecasting and container transportation. An empirical analysis of container throughputs in the Yangtze River Delta region was performed for illustration and verification purposes. Error metrics analysis suggests that SARIMA-LSTM2 and SARIMA-SVR2 (configuration 2) have the best performance compared to other models and they can better predict the container traffic in the context of anomalous events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The results also reveal that, with an increase in the training dataset extensions, the accuracy of the models is improved, particularly in comparison with standard statistical models (i.e. SARIMA model). An accurate prediction can help strategic management and policymakers to better respond to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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