global warming

全球变暖
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在全球变暖的情况下,湖泊正在迅速失去冰,但人们对冰层结构的变化知之甚少。冰结构是冰稳定性和安全性的关键调节器,影响冰上活动。这里,我们分析了21个瑞典湖泊的冰结构的时空变化,从55到69°N,超过五十年。我们发现了冰结构的区域差异,瑞典南部发生的变化最快。稳定的清澈冰层对变暖特别敏感,显示快速下降。在冰盖期间,温度超过冰点的天数被认为是冰结构的强大驱动力。由于在预测的空气温度变化下,不安全冰条件的发生率增加的风险很高,我们建议重建冰结构监测计划,向社会通报冰上风险增加,并将冰结构纳入安全准则。
    Lakes are rapidly losing ice under global warming, but little is known about ice structure changes. Ice structure is a key regulator of ice stability and thus safety, affecting activities on ice. Here, we analysed spatial and temporal variations in ice structure across 21 Swedish lakes, spanning from 55 to 69 °N, and over five decades. We found regional differences in ice structure, with fastest changes occurring in southern Sweden. The stable clear ice layer was particularly sensitive to warming, showing a rapid decline. The number of days when temperatures exceeded the freezing point during the ice cover period was identified as a strong driver for how ice was structured. Since there is a high risk for increased occurrences of unsafe ice conditions under predicted air temperature changes, we recommend re-establishing ice structure monitoring programmes, informing society on the increased risks of being on ice and including ice structure to safety guidelines.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候变化是一种现象,并将继续拥有,在不久的将来和遥远的将来对世界产生广泛的影响。关于人类健康,研究表明气候变化对与热有关的疾病的影响,心理健康,和媒介传播的传染病。通过文献回顾,本文旨在阐明气候变化对蜂窝织炎的当前和未来后果,一种与显著发病率相关的皮肤感染,死亡率,和成本。温度升高等因素,污染,海平面上升,自然灾害频率的增加对蜂窝织炎等感染的增加造成了惊人的风险。最后,鉴于这些趋势,本文将讨论个人可以实施的降低气候变化对蜂窝织炎影响的潜在策略.
    Climate change is a phenomenon that has had, and will continue to have, wide-ranging effects on the world in both the near and distant future. With regards to human health, research has demonstrated the impact of climate change on heat-related illness, mental health, and vector-borne infectious diseases. Through a review of the literature, this paper aims to elucidate both current and future consequences of climate change on cellulitis, a type of skin infection that is associated with significant morbidity, mortality, and cost. Factors such as elevated temperature, pollution, rising sea levels, and the increased frequency of natural disasters pose an alarming risk for the increased proliferation of infections such as cellulitis. Lastly, in light of these trends, this paper will address potential strategies individuals can implement to reduce the effects of climate change on cellulitis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    考虑到上个世纪全球变暖和极端气候事件加剧的背景,大规模的重新造林和植树造林被认为是缓解气候危机的有效策略。自1970年代以来,中国已经启动了几项旨在区域生态保护的植树造林计划,在2060年实现碳中和方面发挥重要作用。这项研究对主要种植的针叶树(Pinussylvestrisvar)的生长适宜性进行了详细分析。蒙古和油松)和阔叶(杨属。,中国北方半干旱的刺槐)。我们比较了1980年至2018年人工林的径向生长趋势及其对极端干旱的反应。随着时间的推移,大多数种植园的生长显著增加,但是阔叶在过去十年中显示出最近的增长下降,这可能与树龄和土壤水分减少有关。然而,在气候变暖的情况下,预计种植园的增长将继续增长。阔叶表现出更好的干旱后恢复,可能与它们的失水行为有关,比针叶树,表现出更好的抗旱性。针叶树的生长更多地取决于生长季节温度升高和降水条件更好,而阔叶主要对温暖的温度有反应。此外,干旱前的增长水平削弱了韧性成分,而干旱后的降水补偿了干旱引起的生长不足。生长和恢复力与树龄呈负相关,而较高的林分密度降低了生长。这种对生长和抗旱性的评估和预测表明,半干旱地区大多数种植园的可持续性,但是未来更温暖和更干燥的条件可能会导致森林健康的未来不确定,并降低其碳汇潜力。
    Given the context of significant global warming and the intensification of extreme climate events in the last century, large-scale reforestation and afforestation have been recognized as effective strategies to mitigate the climate crisis. Since the 1970s, China has launched several afforestation programs aimed at regional ecological protection, playing an important role in reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. This study provided a detailed analysis of the growth suitability of the main planted conifers (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and Pinus tabulaeformis) and broadleaves (Populus spp., Robinia pseudoacacia) in the semi-arid northern China. We compared the radial growth trends of plantations and their responses to extreme droughts from 1980 to 2018. Growth of most plantations has significantly increased over time, but broadleaves showed recent growth reductions in the past decade, which may be related to tree age and reduced soil moisture. Nevertheless, under warmer climate scenarios, the growth of plantations is forecasted to continue increasing. Broadleaves showed a better post-drought recovery, probably linked to their anisohydric behavior, than conifers, which presented a better resistance to drought. Growth of conifers depended more on warmer temperature and better precipitation conditions during the growing season, whereas broadleaves mainly reacted to warm temperature. Additionally, pre-drought growth levels weakened resilience components, while post-drought precipitation compensated for drought-induced growth deficit. Growth and resilience were negatively related to tree age, while higher stand density reduced growth. This assessment and projections of growth and drought resilience indicate the sustainability of most plantations in semi-arid regions, but future warmer and drier conditions may lead to an uncertain future regarding forest health and reduce their carbon sink potential.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    有效的氮肥管理对于减少一氧化二氮(N2O)排放,同时确保行星边界内的粮食安全至关重要。然而,气候变化也可能与管理实践相互作用,以改变N2O排放和排放因子(EF),为估计缓解潜力增加了更多的不确定性。这里,我们开发了一个新的混合建模框架,该框架集成了一个机器学习模型和8个基于过程的模型,以预测不同气候和氮政策情景下的EF.我们的发现表明,EF是由环境变化动态调节的,包括气候,土壤性质,和氮管理实践。在低目标氮监管政策下,EF将从2010年的1.18%-1.22%增加到2050年的1.27%-1.34%,相对增加4.4%-11.4%,超过IPCC一级EF的1%。这一趋势在高氮输入的热带和亚热带地区尤为明显,其中EF可能增加0.14%-0.35%(相对增加11.9%-17%)。相比之下,高雄心政策有可能缓解气候变化导致的EF增加,可能导致EF略有下降。此外,我们的结果表明,由于变暖和区域干湿循环,全球EF预计将继续上升,即使在氮管理实践没有变化的情况下。氮肥对EF的这种不对称影响,在气候变化的推动下,强调迫切需要立即减少N2O排放并进一步评估缓解潜力。这种混合建模框架提供了一种计算有效的方法来预测各种气候中未来的N2O排放,土壤,和氮管理方案,促进社会经济评估和决策努力。
    Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N2O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process-based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low-ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%-1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%-1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%-11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier-1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%-0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%-17%). In contrast, high-ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying-wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N2O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N2O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio-economic assessments and policy-making efforts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    海洋热浪(MHW),由于气候变化,持续时间和强度增加,现在是对海洋生物的主要威胁,并可能对生态系统的结构和功能产生持久影响。然而,海洋分类群和生态系统对MHW的反应可能是高度可变的,使预测和解释生物学结果成为挑战。这里,我们回顾了生物对MHW的反应,从个体到生态系统,是由沿海海洋环境中的精细尺度空间变异性介导的(以下,局部梯度)。通过生态理论的视角观察观察到的反应,我们提出了一个由三个“弹性过程”(RP)组成的简单框架,通过该框架,局部梯度可以影响海洋分类单元对MHW的响应。局部梯度(1)影响个体直接经历的压力量,(2)促进个人和群体的当地适应和适应,(3)塑造社区组成,进而影响对MHW的反应。然后,我们合成了已知的精细梯度示例,这些示例影响了底栖基础物种对MHW的响应,包括海带森林,珊瑚礁,和海草草甸,并将这些不同的响应与RP联系起来。我们提供了一系列来自各种海洋生态系统的案例研究,以说明温度和其他共同发生的驱动因素梯度介导的MHW的不同影响。在许多情况下,这些梯度具有很大的效应大小,有几个局部梯度的例子会导致10倍或更多的影响差异(例如,生存,覆盖率)。这篇综述强调了高分辨率环境数据的必要性,以准确预测和管理MHW在持续气候变化背景下的后果。虽然当前的工具可能已经捕获了这些梯度中的一些,我们主张加强监测,并将当地环境异质性更精细地整合到气候模型中。这对于制定有效的保护战略和减轻未来的海洋生物多样性丧失至关重要。
    Marine heatwaves (MHWs), increasing in duration and intensity because of climate change, are now a major threat to marine life and can have lasting effects on the structure and function of ecosystems. However, the responses of marine taxa and ecosystems to MHWs can be highly variable, making predicting and interpreting biological outcomes a challenge. Here, we review how biological responses to MHWs, from individuals to ecosystems, are mediated by fine-scale spatial variability in the coastal marine environment (hereafter, local gradients). Viewing observed responses through a lens of ecological theory, we present a simple framework of three \'resilience processes\' (RPs) by which local gradients can influence the responses of marine taxa to MHWs. Local gradients (1) influence the amount of stress directly experienced by individuals, (2) facilitate local adaptation and acclimatization of individuals and populations, and (3) shape community composition which then influences responses to MHWs. We then synthesize known examples of fine-scale gradients that have affected responses of benthic foundation species to MHWs, including kelp forests, coral reefs, and seagrass meadows and link these varying responses to the RPs. We present a series of case studies from various marine ecosystems to illustrate the differential impacts of MHWs mediated by gradients in both temperature and other co-occurring drivers. In many cases, these gradients had large effect sizes with several examples of local gradients causing a 10-fold difference in impacts or more (e.g., survival, coverage). This review highlights the need for high-resolution environmental data to accurately predict and manage the consequences of MHWs in the context of ongoing climate change. While current tools may capture some of these gradients already, we advocate for enhanced monitoring and finer scale integration of local environmental heterogeneity into climate models. This will be essential for developing effective conservation strategies and mitigating future marine biodiversity loss.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    通过一种独特的,低振动圆形输送系统,植物传感器捕获光检测和测距(激光雷达)单元和热像仪在同一路线上移动,在一块块苹果树周围,七个MalusxdomesticaBorkh。\'Gala\'每个街区的苹果树。该季节进行了四次测量。此外,在收获时,在三天内记录了18个读数的昼夜课程。数据作为[i]原始数据(从右侧和左侧扫描的3块树木的3D点云和热图像)提供,[ii]用来自热相机的温度数据注释的冠层的经处理的3D点云,和[iii]手动分割水果的3D点云,代表空间分辨的水果表面温度(FST)。在每个测量日期和昼夜课程期间提供手动FST读数。水果数据捕获1236FST,提供温度分布作为3D点云和一个手动记录的参考FST每个水果。此外,测量每个水果的水果大小和颜色,尽管第一次约会,当水果太小而无法读取颜色时。天气数据是从位于果园的车站提供的。数据的使用可以是(a)在开发基于原始数据的3D点云处理的方法中,参考FST数据完成。此外,(b)经过预处理的水果表面温度点云可用于与全球变暖有关的生态生理研究,优化水果生产系统,和其他。因为传感器和树木是从相同的角度和距离测量的,天篷的时间序列分析是可能的。
    By means of a unique, low vibration circular conveyor system, plant sensors capturing light detection and ranging (LiDAR) unit and thermal camera were moved on the same route, around blocks of apple trees, with seven Malus x domestica Borkh. \'Gala\' apple trees in each block. Measurements took place four times during the season. Additionally at harvest, diurnal courses were recorded with 18 readings during three days. The data are provided as [i] raw data (3D point clouds of 3 blocks of trees scanned from right and left sides and thermal images), [ii] processed 3D point clouds of canopies annotated with temperature data from the thermal camera, and [iii] manually segmented 3D point clouds of fruit, representing the spatially-resolved fruit surface temperature (FST). Manual FST readings are provided on each measuring date and during diurnal courses. The fruit data are capturing 1236 FST, providing temperature distribution as 3D point cloud and one manually recorded reference FST per fruit. Additionally, fruit size and colour were measured for each fruit, despite for the first date, when fruit were too small for colour readings. Weather data are provided from a station located in the orchard. Usage of data could be (a) in developing methodology for 3D point cloud processing based on raw data, accomplished with reference FST data. Furthermore, (b) the pre-processed point clouds of fruit surface temperature can be reused in ecophysiological studies related to global warming, optimizing fruit production systems, and other. Because the sensors and trees were measured from the same angle and distance, time series analysis of the canopies would be possible.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管文献中有关于不同颜色的发光二极管(LED)对不同生物的影响的研究,关于这些影响如何随温度升高而变化的信息有限。在这项研究中,蓝色的影响,绿色,红色和白色LED灯对斑马鱼早期发育过程的影响(Daniorerio(Hamilton,1822))进行了全面调查。此外,模拟全球变暖,研究了温度升高一度如何影响这一过程。为此,斑马鱼胚胎,将其放置在4hpf(受精后小时)的孵化器中,其内部分为四个区域,在三个不同的温度(28、29和30°C)下保持120h。选择保持在黑暗环境中的组作为对照。对照组的温度也以与其他组相同的速率升高。结果表明,在暴露期结束时,温度和浅色导致身体畸形增加。幼虫脑中HSP70和8-OHdG生物标志物的组织病理学损伤和免疫阳性信号,增加氧自由基,凋亡细胞和脂质在整个身体的积累,运动活动的增加,心率和血流量下降,并检测到超过30种代谢物水平的显著变化。此外,已经确定许多代谢途径受到影响,尤其是谷胱甘肽,维生素B6和嘧啶代谢。此外,据观察,温度升高一度会使这种负面影响恶化。结论是,蓝光是最接近对照组的光,并且比其他颜色的光危害小。研究表明,蓝光产生的结果与对照组中的结果最相似。
    Although there are studies in the literature on the effects of different coloured light-emitting diodes (LEDs) on different organisms, there is limited information on how these effects change with temperature increase. In this study, the effects of blue, green, red and white LED lights on the early development process of zebrafish (Danio rerio (Hamilton, 1822)) were comprehensively investigated. In addition, to simulate global warming, it was examined how a one-degree temperature increase affects this process. For this purpose, zebrafish embryos, which were placed at 4 hpf (hours post fertilization) in an incubator whose interior was divided into four areas, were kept at three different temperatures (28, 29 and 30 °C) for 120 h. The group kept in a dark environment was chosen as the control. The temperature of the control group was also increased at the same rate as the other groups. The results showed that at the end of the exposure period, temperature and light colour caused an increase in body malformations. Histopathological damage and immunopositive signals of HSP 70 and 8-OHdG biomarkers in larval brains, increase in free oxygen radicals, apoptotic cells and lipid accumulation throughout the body, increase in locomotor activity, decrease in heart rate and blood flow, and significant changes in more than thirty metabolite levels were detected. In addition, it has been determined that many metabolic pathways are affected, especially glutathione, vitamin B6 and pyrimidine metabolism. Moreover, it has been observed that a one-degree temperature increase worsens this negative effect. It was concluded that blue light was the closest light to the control group and was less harmful than other light colours. The study revealed that blue light produced results that were most similar to those seen in the control group.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    小型哺乳动物动物区系在生态系统动态中起着关键作用,并作为关键的生物多样性指标。然而,最近的研究引起了人们对气候变化引起的哺乳动物数量减少的担忧。因此,人们非常重视研究各种大型旗舰哺乳动物物种的保护。然而,小型哺乳动物,例如猪s(Mustelidae:Arctonyx)在亚洲气候变化的影响方面仍未得到充分研究。本研究全面分析了气候变化对两种大陆猪of的影响,利用集合物种分布模型。调查结果揭示了关于结果的问题,因为只有52%的IUCN范围被认为适合大猪Badger(Arctonyxcollaris),而只有17%适合北猪Badger(Arctonyxalbogularis)。值得注意的是,预测表明,在未来的气候情景下,这两种物种的合适区域可能会减少26%以上,在SSP585的高排放情景中,预计下降最严重。这些下降转化为明显的栖息地碎片化,特别是影响A.collaris,其贴片大幅收缩,与相对稳定的A.albogularis斑块形成对比。然而,尽管存在分歧,生态位重叠分析揭示了两个物种之间重叠的有趣增加,表明潜在的生态变化。该研究强调了将气候变化和栖息地碎片化考虑纳入保护战略的重要性,敦促重新评估自然保护联盟的A.albogularis地位。从这项研究中获得的见解对于通过确保适当的法律保障和维持可行的栖息地之间的生态走廊来改善保护措施至关重要。这对于整个亚洲大陆的猪s的保护至关重要。此外,强调积极努力的紧迫性,特别是在有适当栖息地的国家,可以帮助保护这些小型哺乳动物物种及其生态系统免受气候变化的有害影响。
    The small mammalian fauna plays pivotal roles in ecosystem dynamics and as crucial biodiversity indicators. However, recent research has raised concerns about the decline of mammalian species due to climate change. Consequently, significant attention is directed toward studying various big flagship mammalian species for conservation. However, small mammals such as the hog badgers (Mustelidae: Arctonyx) remain understudied regarding the impacts of climate change in Asia. The present study offers a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects on two mainland hog badger species, utilizing ensemble species distribution modeling. Findings reveal concerning outcomes, as only 52% of the IUCN extent is deemed suitable for the Great Hog Badger (Arctonyx collaris) and a mere 17% is ideal for the Northern Hog Badger (Arctonyx albogularis). Notably, projections suggest a potential reduction of over 26% in suitable areas for both species under future climate scenarios, with the most severe decline anticipated in the high-emission scenario of SSP585. These declines translate into evident habitat fragmentation, particularly impacting A. collaris, whose patches shrink substantially, contrasting with the relatively stable patches of A. albogularis. However, despite their differences, niche overlap analysis reveals an intriguing increase in overlap between the two species, indicating potential ecological shifts. The study underscores the importance of integrating climate change and habitat fragmentation considerations into conservation strategies, urging a reassessment of the IUCN status of A. albogularis. The insights gained from this research are crucial for improving protection measures by ensuring adequate legal safeguards and maintaining ecological corridors between viable habitat patches, which are essential for the conservation of hog badgers across mainland Asia. Furthermore, emphasizing the urgency of proactive efforts, particularly in countries with suitable habitats can help safeguard these small mammalian species and their ecosystems from the detrimental impacts of climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    全球变暖增加了极端气候事件发生的概率,复合极端事件对社会经济和环境的影响比个体极端事件更严重。利用耦合模型比对项目第六阶段(CMIP6),我们预测了未来两个时期在三个共享社会经济路径(SSP)下中国复合极端降水-高温事件的时空变化,并分析了暴露人群的变化并确定了影响因素。从结果来看,我们可以看到,CMIP6有效地再现了降水模式,但表现出偏见。复合事件的频率在SSP中上升,特别是在高辐射强迫下,具有较强的长期上升趋势。此外,经济发达地区,特别是中国东南沿海和华北平原,将成为频繁和激烈的复合极端事件的热点,而其他地区将减少暴露。最后,在长期的未来(2070-2100),人口暴露于复合事件的变化值得注意,强调人口因素对气候因素的影响越来越大。这凸显了人口与气候之间的相互作用在塑造暴露模式方面的重要性。
    Global warming has increased the probability of extreme climate events, with compound extreme events having more severe impacts on socioeconomics and the environment than individual extremes. Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we predicted the spatiotemporal variations of compound extreme precipitation-high temperature events in China under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) across two future periods, and analyzed the changes in exposed populations and identified influencing factors. From the result, we can see that, the CMIP6 effectively reproduces precipitation patterns but exhibits biases. The frequency of compound event rises across SSPs, especially under high radiative forcing, with a stronger long-term upward trend. Furthermore, the economically developed areas, notably China\'s southeastern coast and North China Plain, will be hotspots for frequent and intense compound extreme events, while other regions will see reduced exposure. Finally, in the long-term future (2070-2100), there is a noteworthy shift in population exposure to compound events, emphasizing the increasing influence of population factors over climate factors. This highlights the growing importance of interactions between population and climate in shaping exposure patterns.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    氮(N)循环是一个复杂的生物地球化学过程,包括N的几种化学形式的转化。地球上生命对N的需求是显而易见的。然而,在整个不同的生物地球化学过程中,活性氮(Nr)物种的释放会导致大气污染。几种人类活动产生了许多物种,包括氨,一氧化二氮(N2O),一氧化氮,和硝酸盐。这种变化的主要原因是氮基肥料的使用,工业活动,和化石燃料的燃烧。N2O对地球上的环境可持续性构成重大威胁,其全球变暖潜力约为二氧化碳的298倍。它对环境有直接或间接的影响,农业生态系统,和地球上的人类生命。太阳能,水力发电,地热,必须使用风力涡轮机来减少Nr排放。此外,企业应安装催化转化器,以尽量减少氮气排放。为了减少Nr排放,需要像肥料平衡这样的战略干预措施。这项工作将为研究人员提供全面的指导,学者,和政策制定者。此外,它还将协助社会工作者向公众强调Nr问题,以提高全球社会的认识。
    The nitrogen (N) cycle is an intricate biogeochemical process that encompasses the conversion of several chemical forms of N. Given its role in food production, the need for N for life on Earth is obvious. However, the release of reactive nitrogen (Nr) species throughout different biogeochemical processes contributes to atmospheric pollution. Several human activities generate many species, including ammonia, nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide, and nitrate. The primary reasons for this change are the use of nitrogen-based fertilizers, industrial activities, and the burning of fossil fuels. N2O poses a significant threat to environmental sustainability on our planet, with its global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO2. It has direct or indirect impacts on the environment, agroecosystem, and human life on earth. Solar, hydroelectric, geothermal, and wind turbines must be used to reduce Nr emissions. In addition, enterprises should install catalytic converters to minimize nitrogen gas emissions. To reduce Nr emissions, strategic interventions like fertilizer balancing are needed. This work will serve as a comprehensive guide for researchers, academics, and policymakers. Additionally, it will also assist social workers in emphasizing the Nr issue to the public in order to raise awareness within worldwide society.
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