目标:气候变化是一个重大的全球性问题,包括对空气质量和人类福祉的影响。这篇综述调查了不同气候变化情景下空气污染导致的非传染性疾病(NCDs)的预测。
方法:本系统评价是根据2020年系统评价和荟萃分析流程检查表的首选报告项目进行的。建立了人口暴露结果框架。人口是指所有年龄的全球总人口,感兴趣的是空气污染及其预测,结果是根据死亡率的健康指数,空气污染和疾病负担(BoD)引起的非传染性疾病的发生,发病率,残疾调整寿命年,多年的生命损失和多年的生活与残疾。
方法:WebofScience,搜索了OvidMEDLINE和EBSCOhost数据库,以查找2005年至2023年发表的文章。
方法:使用修改后的清单评估生态研究质量的量表对符合条件的文章进行了评估。
方法:搜索了两名审阅者,使用标准化方法独立筛选和选择纳入的研究。使用修改后的生态研究清单量表评估偏倚风险。结果是根据可归因于空气污染的非传染性疾病管理局的预测进行总结的。
结果:本综述包括来自不同国家的11项研究。大多数研究专门调查了各种空气污染物,特别是颗粒物<2.5µm(PM2.5),氮氧化物和臭氧。这些研究使用了耦合的空气质量和气候建模方法,主要使用浓度-响应函数模型预测健康影响。空气污染导致的非传染性疾病包括心血管疾病(CVD),呼吸道疾病,中风,缺血性心脏病,冠心病和下呼吸道感染。值得注意的是,在促进减少空气污染的情况下,由于空气污染导致的非传染性疾病管理局预计将减少,碳排放和土地利用与可持续社会经济学。相反,预计非传染性疾病管理局将在人口数量增加的情况下增加,社会贫困和人口老龄化。
结论:纳入的研究广泛报道了过早死亡率的增加,CVD和呼吸系统疾病可归因于PM2.5。未来的非传染性疾病预测研究应在预测气候变化时代空气污染造成的非传染性疾病的BoD时考虑排放和人口变化。
■CRD42023435288。
OBJECTIVE: Climate change is a major global issue with significant consequences, including effects on air quality and human well-being. This
review investigated the projection of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to air pollution under different climate change scenarios.
METHODS: This systematic
review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 flow checklist. A population-exposure-outcome framework was established. Population referred to the general global population of all ages, the exposure of interest was air pollution and its projection, and the outcome was the occurrence of NCDs attributable to air pollution and burden of disease (BoD) based on the health indices of mortality, morbidity, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost and years lived with disability.
METHODS: The Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCOhost databases were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2023.
METHODS: The eligible articles were evaluated using the modified scale of a checklist for assessing the quality of ecological studies.
METHODS: Two reviewers searched, screened and selected the included studies independently using standardised methods. The risk of bias was assessed using the modified scale of a checklist for ecological studies. The results were summarised based on the projection of the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution.
RESULTS: This
review included 11 studies from various countries. Most studies specifically investigated various air pollutants, specifically particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides and ozone. The studies used coupled-air quality and climate modelling approaches, and mainly projected health effects using the concentration-response function model. The NCDs attributable to air pollution included cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, coronary heart disease and lower respiratory infections. Notably, the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution was projected to decrease in a scenario that promotes reduced air pollution, carbon emissions and land use and sustainable socioeconomics. Contrastingly, the BoD of NCDs was projected to increase in a scenario involving increasing population numbers, social deprivation and an ageing population.
CONCLUSIONS: The included studies widely reported increased premature mortality, CVD and respiratory disease attributable to PM2.5. Future NCD projection studies should consider emission and population changes in projecting the BoD of NCDs attributable to air pollution in the climate change era.
UNASSIGNED: CRD42023435288.