OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents a significant global health challenge, particularly among individuals with liver cirrhosis, with hepatitis C (HCV) a major cause. In people with HCV-related cirrhosis, an increased risk of HCC remains after cure. HCC surveillance with six monthly ultrasounds has been shown to improve survival. However, adherence to biannual screening is currently suboptimal. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of increased HCC surveillance uptake and improved ultrasound sensitivity on mortality among people with HCV-related cirrhosis post HCV cure.
METHODS: This study utilized mathematical modelling to assess HCC progression, surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment among individuals with cirrhosis who had successfully been treated for HCV. The deterministic compartmental model incorporated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages to simulate disease progression and diagnosis probabilities in 100 people with cirrhosis who had successfully been treated for hepatitis C over 10 years. Four interventions were modelled to assess their potential for improving life expectancy: realistic improvements to surveillance adherence, optimistic improvements to surveillance adherence, diagnosis sensitivity enhancements, and improved treatment efficacy Results: Realistic adherence improvements resulted in 9.8 (95% CI 7.9, 11.6) life years gained per cohort of 100 over a 10-year intervention period; 17.2 (13.9, 20.3) life years were achieved in optimistic adherence improvements. Diagnosis sensitivity improvements led to a 7.0 (3.6, 13.8) year gain in life years, and treatment improvements improved life years by 9.0 (7.5, 10.3) years.
CONCLUSIONS: Regular HCC ultrasound surveillance remains crucial to reduce mortality among people with cured hepatitis C and cirrhosis. Our study highlights that even minor enhancements to adherence to ultrasound surveillance can significantly boost life expectancy across populations more effectively than strategies that increase surveillance sensitivity or treatment efficacy.

OBJECTIVE: Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a recognized biomarker associated with poorer prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) is a highly sensitive technique that can determine the iodine concentration (IC) in tumour and provide an indirect evaluation of internal microcirculatory perfusion. This study aimed to assess whether the combination of DECT with laboratory data can improve preoperative MVI prediction.
METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled 119 patients who underwent DECT liver angiography at 2 medical centres preoperatively. To compare DECT parameters and laboratory findings between MVI-negative and MVI-positive groups, Mann-Whitney U test was used. Additionally, principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted to determine fundamental components. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to determine whether the principal component (PC) scores varied across MVI groups. Finally, a general linear classifier was used to assess the classification ability of each PC score.
RESULTS: Significant differences were noted (P < .05) in alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, normalized arterial phase IC, and normalized portal phase IC between the MVI groups in the primary and validation datasets. The PC1-PC4 accounted for 67.9% of the variance in the primary dataset, with loadings of 24.1%, 16%, 15.4%, and 12.4%, respectively. In both primary and validation datasets, PC3 and PC4 were significantly different across MVI groups, with area under the curve values of 0.8410 and 0.8373, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The recombination of DECT IC and laboratory features based on varying factor loadings can well predict MVI preoperatively.
CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing PCA, the amalgamation of DECT IC and laboratory features, considering diverse factor loadings, showed substantial promise in accurately classifying MVI. There have been limited endeavours to establish such a combination, offering a novel paradigm for comprehending data in related research endeavours.

BACKGROUND: Type C hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which is based on decompensated cirrhosis, has different laboratory tests, precipitating events, organ failure and clinical outcomes. The predictors of prognosis for type C HBV-ACLF patients are different from those for other subgroups. This study aimed to construct a novel, short-term prognostic score that applied serological indicators of hepatic regeneration and noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis to predict outcomes in patients with type C HBV-ACLF.
METHODS: Patients with type C HBV-ACLF were observed for 90 days. Demographic information, clinical examination, and laboratory test results of the enrolled patients were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a novel prognostic scoring system. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyse the performance of the model.
RESULTS: A total of 224 patients with type C HBV-ACLF were finally included. The overall survival rate within 90 days was 47.77%. Age, total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio (INR), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), white blood cell (WBC), serum sodium (Na), and aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) were found to be independent prognostic factors. According to the results of the logistic regression analysis, a new prognostic model (named the A3Twin score) was established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.851 [95% CI (0.801-0.901)], the sensitivity was 78.8%, and the specificity was 71.8%, which were significantly higher than those of the MELD, IMELD, MELD-Na, TACIA and COSSH-ACLF II scores (all P < 0.001). Patients with lower A3Twin scores (<-9.07) survived longer.
CONCLUSIONS: A new prognostic scoring system for patients with type C HBV-ACLF based on seven routine indices was established in our study and can accurately predict short-term mortality and might be used to guide clinical management.

BACKGROUND: Alpha-fetoprotein elevated gastric cancer (AFPGC) got growing interests for its aggressive nature and unfavorable prognosis. Here, a phase 1 dose escalation study was conducted to evaluate safety and efficacy of zimberelimab (GLS-010, anti-PD-1) plus lenvatinib and chemotherapy (XELOX) as the first-line treatment for AFPGC.
METHODS: Histologically confirmed HER2-negative, advanced GC patients with elevated serum AFP level (≥ 20 ng/ml) were screened. Using a 3 + 3 dose escalation design, patients were administered varying doses of lenvatinib (12, 16, 20 mg) with GLS-010 and XELOX. The primary endpoints were safety and determination of recommended phase II dose (RP2D). Secondary endpoints included overall response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS) and disease control rate.
RESULTS: Nine patients were enrolled with no dose-limiting toxicities observed. Most frequent treatment-related AEs were fatigue (55.6%), hand-foot syndrome (55.6%) and rash (55.6%), and no grade ≥ 4 AEs were reported. All patients exhibited disease control with ORR reaching 33.3%. The median PFS and OS reached 7.67 months (95% CI 4.07-11.27) and 13.17 months (95% CI 2.78-23.56), respectively. Serum AFP level was found correlated with therapeutic responses. Further 16s rRNA sequencing analysis demonstrated altered gut microbiota with elevated abundance of Lachnospiraceae bacterium-GAM79 and Roseburia hominis A2-183.
CONCLUSIONS: GLS-010 plus lenvatinib and XELOX demonstrated a manageable safety profile with promising efficacy for AFPGC. With RP2D of lenvatinib determined as 16 mg, further expansion cohort is now ongoing. Translational investigation suggested that serum AFP can be indictive for therapeutic responses and certain microbiota species indicating favorable responses to immunotherapy was elevated after the combinational treatment.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate α-fetoprotein (AFP) trajectories for prediction of survival outcomes after hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) treatment in large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
METHODS: From May 2014 to June 2020, 889 eligible patients with large HCC underwent HAIC were retrospectively enrolled from five hospitals. A latent class growth mixed (LCGM) model was applied to distinguish potential AFP level dynamic changing trajectories. Inverse-probability-of-treatment weighted (IPTW) analyses were performed to eliminate unmeasured confounders through marginal structural models. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to determine the overall survival (OS) in patients with large HCC. Performance of these serum markers for survival prediction was compared by areas under receiver operating characteristic analysis with the Delong test.
RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 23.7 (interquartile range, 3.8-115.3). A total of 1009 patients with large HCC, who underwent HAIC with AFP repeatedly measured 3-10 times, were enrolled in the study. Three distinct trajectories of these serum AFP were identified using the LCGM model: high stable (37.0%; n = 373), low stable (15.7%; n = 159), and sharp-falling (47.3%; n = 477). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses found that ALBI stage 2-3, BCLC-C stage and high-stable AFP trajectories were associated with OS. AFP trajectories yield the optimal predictive performance in all risk factors.
CONCLUSIONS: The AFP trajectories based on longitudinal AFP change showed outstanding performance for predicting survival outcomes after HAIC treatment in large HCC, which provide a potential monitoring tool for improving clinical decision-making.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between the concentration of maternal serum biomarkers and the risk of fetal carrying chromosome copy number variants (CNVs).
METHODS: Pregnant women identified as high risk in the second-trimester serological triple screening and underwent traditional amniotic fluid karyotype analysis, along with comparative genomic hybridization array (aCGH)/copy number variation sequencing (CNV-seq), were included in the study. We divided the concentration of serum biomarkers, free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (fβ-hCG), alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated estriol (uE3), into three levels: abnormally low, normal and abnormally high. The prevalence of abnormally low, normal and abnormally high serum fβ-hCG, AFP and uE3 levels in pregnant women with aberrant aCGH/CNV-seq results and normal controls was calculated.
RESULTS: Among the 2877 cases with high risk in the second-trimester serological triple screening, there were 98 chromosome abnormalities revealed by karyotype analysis, while 209 abnormalities were detected by aCGH/CNVseq (P＜0.001) . The carrying rate of aberrant CNVs increased significantly when the maternal serum uE3 level was less than 0.4 multiple of median (MoM) of corresponding gestational weeks compared to normal controls, while the carrying rate of aberrant CNVs decreased significantly when the maternal serum fβ-hCG level was greater than 2.5 MoM compared to normal controls. No significant difference was found in the AFP group.
CONCLUSIONS: Low serum uE3 level (<0.4 MoM) was associated with an increased risk of aberrant CNVs.

BACKGROUND: The GALAD score has improved early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) detection rate. The role of the GALAD score in staging and predicting tumor characteristics or clinical outcome of HCC remains of particular interest.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic/prognostic performances of the GALAD score at various phases of initial diagnosis, tumor features, and 1-year mortality of HCC and compare the performance of the GALAD score with those of other serum biomarkers.
METHODS: This prospective, diagnostic/prognostic study was conducted among patients with newly diagnosed HCC at the liver center of Vajira Hospital. Eligible patients had HCC staging allocation using the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) categorization. Demographics, HCC etiology, and HCC features were recorded. Biomarkers and the GALAD score were obtained at baseline. The performance of the GALAD score and biomarkers were prospectively assessed.
RESULTS: Exactly 115 individuals were diagnosed with HCC. The GALAD score increased with disease severity. Between BCLC-0/A and BCLC-B/C/D, the GALAD score predicted HCC staging with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.868 (95%CI: 0.80-0.93). For identifying the curative HCC, the AUC of GALAD score was significantly higher than that of Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (0.753) and Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP-L3 (0.706), and as good as that of Protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II) (0.897). For detecting aggressive features, the GALAD score gave an AUC of 0.839 (95%CI: 0.75-0.92) and significantly outperformed compared to that of AFP (0.761) and AFP-L3 (0.697), with a trend of superiority to that of PIVKA-II (0.772). The performance to predict 1-year mortality of GALAD score (AUC: 0.711, 95%CI: 0.60-0.82) was better than that of AFP (0.541) and as good as that of PIVKA-II (0.736). The optimal cutoff value of GALAD score was ≥ 6.83, with a specificity of 72.63% for exhibiting substantial reduction in the 1-year mortality.
CONCLUSIONS: The GALAD model can diagnose HCC at the curative stage, including the characteristic of advanced disease, more than that by AFP and AFP-L3, but not PIVKA-II. The GALAD score can be used to predict the 1-year mortality of HCC.

BACKGROUND: The aim is to establish and verify reference intervals (RIs) for serum tumor markers for an apparently healthy elderly population in Southwestern China using an indirect method.
METHODS: Data from 35,635 apparently healthy elderly individuals aged 60 years and above were obtained in West China Hospital from April 2020 to December 2021. We utilized the Box-Cox conversion combined with the Tukey method to normalize the data and eliminate outliers. Subgroups are divided according to gender and age to examine the division of RIs. The Z-test was used to compare differences between groups, and 95% distribution RIs were calculated using a nonparametric method.
RESULTS: In the study, we observed that the RIs for serum ferritin and Des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were wider for men, ranging from 64.18 to 865.80 ng/ml and 14.00 to 33.00 mAU/ml, respectively, compared to women, whose ranges were 52.58 to 585.88 ng/ml and 13.00 to 29.00 mAU/ml. For other biomarkers, the overall RIs were established as follows: alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) 0-6.75 ng/ml, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) 0-4.85 ng/ml, carbohydrate antigen15-3 (CA15-3) for females 0-22.00 U/ml, carbohydrate antigen19-9 (CA19-9) 0-28.10 U/ml, carbohydrate antigen125 (CA125) 0-20.96 U/ml, cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) 0-4.66 U/ml, neuron-specific enolase (NSE) 0-19.41 ng/ml, total and free prostate-specific antigens (tPSA and fPSA) for males 0-5.26 ng/ml and 0-1.09 ng/ml. The RIs for all these biomarkers have been validated through our rigorous processes.
CONCLUSIONS: This study preliminarily established 95% RIs for an apparently healthy elderly population in Southwestern China. Using real-world data and an indirect method, simple and reliable RIs for an elderly population can be both established and verified, which are suitable for application in various clinical laboratories.

Although patients with alpha-fetoprotein-negative hepatocellular carcinoma (AFPNHCC) have a favorable prognosis, a high risk of postoperative recurrence remains. We developed and validated a novel liver fibrosis assessment index, the direct bilirubin-gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio (DGPRI). DGPRI was calculated for each of the 378 patients with AFPNHCC who underwent hepatic resection. The patients were divided into high- and low-score groups using the optimal cutoff value. The Lasso-Cox method was used to identify the characteristics of postoperative recurrence, followed by multivariate Cox regression analysis to determine the independent risk factors associated with recurrence. A nomogram model incorporating the DGPRI was developed and validated. High DGPRI was identified as an independent risk factor (hazard ratio = 2.086) for postoperative recurrence in patients with AFPNHCC. DGPRI exhibited better predictive ability for recurrence 1-5 years after surgery than direct bilirubin and the gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet ratio. The DGPRI-nomogram model demonstrated good predictive ability, with a C-index of 0.674 (95% CI 0.621-0.727). The calibration curves and clinical decision analysis demonstrated its clinical utility. The DGPRI nomogram model performed better than the TNM and BCLC staging systems for predicting recurrence-free survival. DGPRI is a novel and effective predictor of postoperative recurrence in patients with AFPNHCC and provides a superior assessment of preoperative liver fibrosis.

UNASSIGNED: For decades, stratification criteria for first-line clinical studies have been highly uniform. However, there is no principle or consensus for restratification after systemic treatment progression based on immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). The aim of this study was to assess the patterns of disease progression in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not eligible for surgical intervention, following the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors.
UNASSIGNED: This is a retrospective study that involved patients with inoperable China liver stage (CNLC) IIIa and/or IIIb. The patients were treated at eight centers across China between January 2017 and October 2022. All patients received at least two cycles of first-line treatment containing immune checkpoint inhibitors. The patterns of disease progression were assessed using RECIST criteria 1.1. Different progression modes have been identified based on the characteristics of imaging progress. The study\'s main outcome measures were post-progression survival (PPS) and overall survival (OS). Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method to compare the difference among the four groups. Subgroup analysis was conducted to compare the efficacy of different immunotherapy combinations. Variations in the efficacy of immunotherapy have also been noted across patient groups exhibiting alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels equal to or exceeding 400ng/mL, in contrast to those with AFP levels below 400ng/mL.
UNASSIGNED: The study has identified four distinct patterns of progress, namely p-IIb, p-IIIa, p-IIIb, and p-IIIc. Diverse patterns of progress demonstrate notable variations in both PPS and OS. The group p-IIb had the longest PPS of 12.7m (95% 9.3-16.1) and OS 19.6m (95% 15.6-23.5), the remaining groups exhibited p-IIIb at PPS 10.5 months (95%CI: 7.9-13.1) and OS 19.2 months (95%CI 15.1-23.3). Similarly, p-IIIc at PPS 5.7 months (95%CI: 4.2-7.2) and OS 11.0 months (95%CI 9.0-12.9), while p-IIIa at PPS 3.4 months (95%CI: 2.7-4.1) and OS 8.2 months (95%CI 6.8-9.5) were also seen. Additional stratified analysis was conducted and showed there were no differences of immunotherapy alone or in combination in OS (HR= 0.92, 95%CI: 0.59-1.43, P=0.68) and PPS (HR= 0.88, 95%CI: 0.57-1.36, P=0.54); there was no significant difference in PPS (HR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.55-1.12, P=0.15) and OS (HR=0.86, 95% CI: 0.61-1.24, P=0.39) for patients with AFP levels at or over 400ng/mL. However, it was observed that patients with AFP levels above 400ng/mL experienced a shorter median progression of PPS (8.0 months vs. 5.0 months) after undergoing immunotherapy.
UNASSIGNED: In this investigation of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma among Chinese patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors, we identified four distinct progression patterns (p-IIb, p-IIIa, p-IIIb and p-IIIc) that showed significant differences in PPS and OS. These findings demonstrate the heterogeneity of disease progression and prognosis after immunotherapy failure. Further validation in large cohorts is necessary to develop prognostic models that integrate distinct progression patterns to guide subsequent treatment decisions. Additionally, post-immunotherapy progression in patients with AFP levels ≥400ng/mL indicates a shortened median PPS. These findings provide valuable insights for future personalized treatment decisions.