未经证实:腮腺炎是一种季节性传染病,总是发生在冬天和春天。在这项研究中,我们旨在分析其流行病学特征,可传播性,及其与气象变量的相关性。
UNASSIGNED:应用了季节性易感暴露/无症状恢复模型和下一代矩阵方法来估计与时间相关的繁殖数(Rt)。
UNASSIGNED:年发病率的季节性双峰主要在5月至7月和11月至12月。在Rt=1.091(范围:0至4.393)的中位数处存在高传播。Rt主要在2月至4月和9月至11月呈季节性分布。发现温度之间存在相关性(皮尔逊相关系数[r]范围:从0.101到0.115),平均相对湿度(r=0.070),平均局部压力(r=-0.066),以及新病例的数量。此外,平均局部压力(r=0.188),平均风速(r=0.111),空气温度(r范围:-0.128至-0.150),平均相对湿度(r=-0.203)和日照时间(r=-0.075)均与Rt相关。
UNASSIGNED:在厦门市发现了相对较高的可传播性,导致腮腺炎持续流行。气象因素,特别是空气温度和相对湿度,与其他因素相比,腮腺炎可能更密切相关。
UNASSIGNED: Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this
study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables.
UNASSIGNED: A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R t ).
UNASSIGNED: The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of R t = 1.091 (ranged: 0 to 4.393). R t was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged: from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged: -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with R t .
UNASSIGNED: A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.