背景:在联邦AWB到期后,很少有州制定攻击性武器禁令(AWB)。州AWB以及邻近州立法的有效性,在降低攻击武器(AWs)的局部流行率或降低整体射击杀伤力方面尚不清楚。
方法:我们查询了枪支暴力档案(2014-2021),以确定美国枪支伤害和死亡人数。比较了有和没有AWB的州之间的射击死亡率,根据国家枪支法律数据库的报告。有关回收枪支的数据是从ATF枪支追踪数据库获得的,用于估计武器流行率。回收的枪支根据口径(7.62毫米,5.56mm,0.223卡)。我们进行了空间加权线性回归模型,对州和年份具有固定影响,以评估地理上聚集的州立法与枪支结果之间的关联。
结果:从2014年到2021年,美国枪击受害者的死亡率为8.06%,在有和没有AWB的州之间没有差异。在没有AWB的州,AWs占枪支总数的比例为5.0%,在有AWB的州为6.0%(平均差[95%CI]=-0.8%[-1.6%至-0.2%],P=0.03)。AWB州的大多数回收枪支都来自非AWB州。在调整后的模型上,州级AWB和枪支案件死亡之间没有关联;然而,与AWB状态相邻与病死率较低相关(P<0.001).与美国其他地区相比,边界共享的AWB集群州的AW患病率和死亡率较低。
结论:孤立状态的AWB与射击病死率或AWs的患病率无关,但是多个相邻状态之间的AWB可能与两个结果相关联。
BACKGROUND: Few states established assault weapon bans (AWBs) after the federal AWB expired. The effectiveness of state AWBs as well as neighboring state legislation, in reducing the local prevalence of assault weapons (AWs) or in reducing overall shooting lethality is unknown.
METHODS: We queried the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2021) to identify US firearm injuries and fatalities. Shooting
case fatality rates were compared among states with and without AWBs, as reported in the State Firearm Laws Database. Data on recovered firearms was obtained from the ATF Firearms Trace Database and used to estimate weapon prevalence. Recovered firearms were classified as AWs based on caliber (7.62 mm, 5.56 mm, 0.223 cal). We performed spatially weighted linear regression models, with fixed effects for state and year to assess the association between geographically clustered state legislation and firearm outcomes.
RESULTS: From 2014 to 2021, the US shooting victim
case fatality rate was 8.06% and did not differ among states with and without AWBs. The proportion of AWs to total firearms was 5.0% in states without an AWB and 6.0% in states with an AWB (mean difference [95% CI] = -0.8% [-1.6% to -0.2%], P = 0.03). Most recovered firearms in AWB states originated from non-AWB states. On adjusted models, there was no association between state-level AWB and firearm
case fatality; however, adjacency to states with an AWB was associated with lower
case fatality (P < 0.001). Clustered AWB states with shared borders had lower AW prevalence and fatality rates than the rest of the US.
CONCLUSIONS: Isolated state AWBs are not inversely associated with shooting
case fatality rates nor the prevalence of AWs, but AWBs among multiple neighboring states may be associated with both outcomes.