UNASSIGNED: Lactate is a commonly used biomarker for sepsis, although it has limitations in certain cases, suggesting the need for novel biomarkers. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of plasma renin concentration and renin activity for mortality and kidney outcomes in patients with sepsis with hypoperfusion or hypotension.
UNASSIGNED: This was a multicenter, prospective, observational study of 117 patients with septic shock treated at three tertiary emergency departments between September 2021 and October 2022. The accuracy of renin activity, renin, and lactate concentrations in predicting 28-day mortality, acute kidney injury (AKI), and renal replacement requirement was assessed using the area under the ROC curve (AUC) analysis.
UNASSIGNED: The AUCs of initial renin activity, renin, and lactate concentrations for predicting 28-day mortality were 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55-0.77), 0.63 (95% CI, 0.52-0.75), and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.53-0.77), respectively, and those at 24 hrs were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.62-0.86), 0.70 (95% CI, 0.56-0.83), and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.54-0.79). Renin concentrations and renin activity outperformed initial lactate concentrations in predicting AKI within 14 days. The AUCs of renin and lactate concentrations were 0.71 (95% CI, 0.61-0.80) and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.46-0.67), respectively (P=0.030). The AUC of renin activity (0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.80) was also higher than that of lactate concentration (P=0.044).
UNASSIGNED: Renin concentration and renin activity show comparable performance to lactate concentration in predicting 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock but superior performance in predicting AKI.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of clinical examination, biomarkers, electrophysiology and brain imaging, individually or in combination to predict good neurological outcomes at 6 months after CA.
METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of the Korean Hypothermia Network Prospective Registry 1.0, which included adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients (≥18 years). Good outcome predictors were defined as both pupillary light reflex (PLR) and corneal reflex (CR) at admission, Glasgow Coma Scale Motor score (GCS-M) >3 at admission, neuron-specific enolase (NSE) <17 µg/L at 24-72 h, a median nerve somatosensory evoked potential (SSEP) N20/P25 amplitude >4 µV, continuous background without discharges on electroencephalogram (EEG), and absence of anoxic injury on brain CT and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI).
RESULTS: A total of 1327 subjects were included in the final analysis, and their median age was 59 years; among them, 412 subjects had a good neurological outcome at 6 months. GCS-M >3 at admission had the highest specificity of 96.7% (95% CI 95.3-97.8), and normal brain DWI had the highest sensitivity of 96.3% (95% CI 92.9-98.4). When the two predictors were combined, the sensitivities tended to decrease (ranging from 2.7-81.1%), and the specificities tended to increase, ranging from81.3-100%. Through the explorative variation of the 2021 European Resuscitation Council (ERC) and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) prognostication strategy algorithms, good outcomes were predicted, with a specificity of 83.2% and a sensitivity of 83.5% in patients by the algorithm.
CONCLUSIONS: Clinical examination, biomarker, electrophysiology, and brain imaging predicted good outcomes at 6 months after CA. When the two predictors were combined, the specificity further improved. With the 2021 ERC/ESICM guidelines, the number of indeterminate patients and the uncertainty of prognostication can be reduced by using a good outcome prediction algorithm.

Crohn\'s disease is a lifelong condition that can affect any segment of the gastrointestinal tract. Some people with Crohn\'s disease may be at higher risk of following a severe course of disease than others and being able to identify the level of risk a patient has could lead to personalised management.
To assess the prognostic test accuracy, clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of two tools for the stratification of people with a diagnosis of Crohn\'s disease by risk of following a severe course of disease.
The data sources MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched to inform the systematic reviews on prognostic accuracy, clinical impact of the prognostic tools, and economic evaluations. Additional data sources to inform the review of economic evaluations were NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects and the Health Technology Assessment Database.
Systematic reviews of electronic databases were carried out from inception to June 2019 for studies assessing the prognostic accuracy and clinical impact of the IBDX® (Crohn\'s disease Prognosis Test; Glycominds Ltd, Lod, Israel) biomarker stratification tool and the PredictSURE-IBD™ (PredictImmune Ltd, Cambridge, UK) tool. Systematic reviews of studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of treatments for Crohn\'s disease were run from inception to July 2019. Two reviewers independently agreed on studies for inclusion, assessed the quality of included studies and validated the data extracted from studies. Clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies precluded the synthesis of data for prognostic accuracy. A de novo economic model was developed to compare the costs and consequences of two treatment approaches - the \'top-down\' and \'step-up\' strategies, with step-up considered standard care - in people at high risk of following a severe course of Crohn\'s disease. The model comprised a decision tree and a Markov cohort model.
Sixteen publications, including eight original studies (n = 1478), were deemed relevant to the review of prognostic accuracy. Documents supplied by the companies marketing the prognostic tools were also reviewed. No study meeting the eligibility criteria reported on the sensitivity or specificity of the IBDX biomarker stratification tool, whereas one study provided estimates of sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value for the PredictSURE-IBD tool. All identified studies were observational and were considered to provide weak evidence on the effectiveness of the tools. Owing to the paucity of data on the two tools, in the base-case analysis the accuracy of PredictSURE-IBD was assumed to be 100%. Accuracy of IBDX was assumed to be 100% in a scenario analysis, with the cost of the tests being the only difference between the analyses. The incremental analysis of cost-effectiveness demonstrated that top-down (via the use of PredictSURE-IBD in the model) is more expensive and generates fewer quality-adjusted life-years than step-up (via the standard care arm of the model).
Despite extensive systematic searches of the literature, no robust evidence was identified of the prognostic accuracy of the biomarker stratification tools IBDX and PredictSURE-IBD.
Although the model indicates that standard care dominates the tests, the lack of evidence of prognostic accuracy of the two tests and the uncertainty around the benefits of the top-down and step-up treatment approaches mean that the results should be interpreted as indicative rather than definitive.
This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019138737.
This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 23. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Crohn’s disease is a condition in which parts of the digestive system become inflamed (swollen). People of any age can develop Crohn’s disease. It is a lifelong condition for which there is no cure. In the UK, Crohn’s disease affects about 1 in every 650 people. Any part of the digestive system can be affected, and the severity of the disease can vary from person to person. Symptoms come and go, and there can be times when there are no symptoms at all. Common symptoms of Crohn’s disease are diarrhoea, stomach-ache and blood in faeces. Treatment is given to reduce or control symptoms and to try to stop inflammation from coming back. Some people with Crohn’s disease are more likely than others to have more relapses and to develop complications of Crohn’s disease that might require surgery. This project looked at how well two tools worked at identifying people with Crohn’s disease who might develop complications or need surgery. Identifying those who have a higher chance of experiencing complications of Crohn’s disease could help them and their doctor to choose their treatment, with the goal of reducing the number of relapses and the risk of surgery in the longer term. In addition, the review assessed whether or not the tools offered value for money. We found limited evidence of how well the tools worked in identifying people who were more likely to develop complications of Crohn’s disease. The lack of evidence on the tools meant that the cost-effectiveness analysis could only assess the value for money of the treatment that is given in clinical practice at this time or of more intensive treatments for people who are more likely to develop complications. The analysis found that current standard care offers more value for money than intensive treatments for people with a higher chance of developing complications of Crohn’s disease.

BACKGROUND: Using the \'surprise\' question \'Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next year?\' may improve physicians\' prognostic accuracy and identify people appropriate for palliative care.
OBJECTIVE: Determine the prognostic accuracy of general practitioners asking the \'surprise\' question about their patients with advanced (stage IV) cancer.
METHODS: Prospective cohort study.
METHODS: Between December 2011 and February 2012, 42 of 50 randomly selected general practitioners (Bologna area, Italy) prospectively classified 231 patients diagnosed with advanced cancer according to the \'surprise\' question and supplied the status of each patient 1 year later.
RESULTS: Of the 231 patients, general practitioners responded \'No\' to the \'surprise\' question for 126 (54.5%) and \'Yes\' for 105 (45.5%). After 12 months, 104 (45.0%) patients had died; 87 (83.7%) were in the \'No\' group. The sensitivity of the \'surprise\' question was 69.3%; the specificity was 83.6%. Positive predictive value was 83.8%; negative predictive value was 69.0%. The answer to the \'surprise\' question was significantly correlated with survival at 1 year. Patients in the \'No\' group had an odds ratio of 11.55 (95% confidence interval: 5.83-23.28) and a hazard ratio of 6.99 (95% confidence interval: 3.75-13.03) of being dead in the next year compared to patients in the \'Yes\' group (p = 0.000 for both odds ratio and hazard ratio).
CONCLUSIONS: When general practitioners used the \'surprise\' question for their patients with advanced cancer, the accuracy of survival prognosis was very high. This has clinical potential as a method to identify patients who might benefit from palliative care.