Mortality prediction

死亡率预测
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    预测重症监护病房(ICU)评分系统在ICU管理中起着重要作用,因为它具有预测重要结局的能力。尤其是死亡率。在ICU中已经开发和使用了许多评分系统。这些评分系统主要基于电子健康记录(EHR)中包含的结构化临床数据,这可能会丢失叙述和图像中包含的重要临床信息。在这项工作中,我们利用多模态数据构建了基于深度学习的生存预测模型来预测ICU死亡率.研究了四组特征:(1)简化急性生理评分(SAPS)II的生理测量,(2)放射科医师预先定义的常见胸部疾病,(3)基于BERT的文本表示,(4)胸部X线图像特征。我们使用重症监护医学信息集市IV(MIMIC-IV)数据集来评估所提出的模型。我们的模型实现了0.7847的平均C指数(95%置信区间,0.7625-0.8068),大大超过SAPS-II特征的基线(0.7477(0.7238-0.7716))。消融研究进一步证明了预定义标签的贡献(2.12%),文本特征(2.68%),和图像特征(2.96%)。在相同的特征融合设置下,我们的模型获得了比传统机器学习方法更高的平均C指数,这表明深度学习方法在ICU死亡率预测中可以优于传统的机器学习方法。这些结果凸显了具有多模态信息的深度学习模型在增强ICU死亡率预测方面的潜力。我们将我们的工作公开在https://github.com/bionlplab/mimic-icu-malternatory。
    The predictive Intensive Care Unit (ICU) scoring system plays an important role in ICU management for its capability of predicting important outcomes, especially mortality. There are many scoring systems that have been developed and used in the ICU. These scoring systems are primarily based on the structured clinical data contained in the electronic health record (EHR), which may suffer the loss of the important clinical information contained in the narratives and images. In this work, we build a deep learning based survival prediction model with multi-modality data to predict ICU-mortality. Four sets of features are investigated: (1) physiological measurements of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, (2) common thorax diseases pre-defined by radiologists, (3) BERT-based text representations, and (4) chest X-ray image features. We use the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) dataset to evaluate the proposed model. Our model achieves the average C-index of 0.7847 (95% confidence interval, 0.7625-0.8068), which substantially exceeds that of the baseline with SAPS-II features (0.7477 (0.7238-0.7716)). Ablation studies further demonstrate the contributions of pre-defined labels (2.12%), text features (2.68%), and image features (2.96%). Our model achieves a higher average C-index than the traditional machine learning methods under the same feature fusion setting, which suggests that the deep learning methods can outperform the traditional machine learning methods in ICU-mortality prediction. These results highlight the potential of deep learning models with multimodal information to enhance ICU-mortality prediction. We make our work publicly available at https://github.com/bionlplab/mimic-icu-mortality.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    重症监护病房(ICU)是所有医院中最昂贵和最重要的部分。这项研究旨在预测死亡率并探索影响死亡率的关键因素。一般来说,在医疗保健系统中,对患者进行快速准确的ICU死亡率预测对护理质量起着关键作用,从而降低了成本并提高了患者的生存机会。在这项研究中,我们使用了一个医学数据集,包括患者的人口统计细节,潜在的疾病,实验室紊乱,还有LOS.由于需要准确的估计才能获得最佳结果,这里使用各种数据预处理作为初始步骤。此外,机器学习模型用于预测ICU出院的死亡风险。对于AdaBoost模型,这些指标被认为是AUC=0.966,灵敏度(召回)=87.88%,Kappa=0.859,F-measure=89.23%,AdaBoost,占最高比率。通过使用各种数据处理方案,我们的模型优于其他比较模型。所获得的结果表明,高死亡率可能是由糖尿病和高血压等基础疾病引起的,中度肺栓塞Wells评分风险,血小板血细胞计数小于100000(mcl),高血压(HTN),高水平的胆红素,吸烟,和GCS水平在6和9之间。
    The intensive care units (ICUs) are among the most expensive and essential parts of all hospitals for extremely ill patients. This study aims to predict mortality and explore the crucial factors affecting it. Generally, in the health care systems, having a fast and precise ICU mortality prediction for patients plays a key role in care quality, resulting in reduced costs and improved survival chances of the patients. In this study, we used a medical dataset, including patients\' demographic details, underlying diseases, laboratory disorder, and LOS. Since accurate estimates are required to have optimal results, various data pre-processings as the initial steps are used here. Besides, machine learning models are employed to predict the risk of mortality ICU discharge. For AdaBoost model, these measures are considered AUC= 0.966, sensitivity (recall) = 87.88%, Kappa=0.859, F-measure = 89.23% making it, AdaBoost, accounts for the highest rate. Our model outperforms other comparison models by using various scenarios of data processing. The obtained results demonstrate that the high mortality can be caused by underlying diseases such as diabetes mellitus and high blood pressure, moderate Pulmonary Embolism Wells Score risk, platelet blood count less than 100000 (mcl), hypertension (HTN), high level of Bilirubin, smoking, and GCS level between 6 and 9.
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