Mortality prediction

死亡率预测
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:评估重症监护病房(ICU)癌症患者死亡率预测量表的预测能力。
    方法:在2022年10月使用搜索算法对文献进行了系统回顾。搜索了以下数据库:PubMed,Scopus,虚拟健康图书馆(BVS)还有Medrxiv.使用QUADAS-2量表评估偏倚风险。
    方法:ICU接纳癌症患者。
    方法:研究包括患有活动性癌症的成年患者,并进入ICU。
    方法:无干预的综合研究。
    方法:死亡率预测,标准化死亡率,歧视,和校准。
    结果:分析了ICU中癌症患者的7种死亡风险预测模型。大多数型号(APACHEII,阿帕奇四世,SOFA,SAPS-II,SAPS-III,和MPMII)低估了死亡率,ICMM高估了它。APACHEII的SMR(标准化死亡率)值最接近1,表明与其他模型相比具有更好的预后能力。
    结论:由于缺乏明确的优越模型和现有预测工具的固有局限性,预测ICU癌症患者的死亡率仍然是一个复杂的挑战。对于基于证据的知情临床决策,重要的是要考虑医疗团队对每个工具的熟悉程度及其固有的局限性。开发新的仪器或进行大规模验证研究对于提高预测准确性和优化该人群的患者护理至关重要。
    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the predictive ability of mortality prediction scales in cancer patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs).
    METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted using a search algorithm in October 2022. The following databases were searched: PubMed, Scopus, Virtual Health Library (BVS), and Medrxiv. The risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 scale.
    METHODS: ICUs admitting cancer patients.
    METHODS: Studies that included adult patients with an active cancer diagnosis who were admitted to the ICU.
    METHODS: Integrative study without interventions.
    METHODS: Mortality prediction, standardized mortality, discrimination, and calibration.
    RESULTS: Seven mortality risk prediction models were analyzed in cancer patients in the ICU. Most models (APACHE II, APACHE IV, SOFA, SAPS-II, SAPS-III, and MPM II) underestimated mortality, while the ICMM overestimated it. The APACHE II had the SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) value closest to 1, suggesting a better prognostic ability compared to the other models.
    CONCLUSIONS: Predicting mortality in ICU cancer patients remains an intricate challenge due to the lack of a definitive superior model and the inherent limitations of available prediction tools. For evidence-based informed clinical decision-making, it is crucial to consider the healthcare team\'s familiarity with each tool and its inherent limitations. Developing novel instruments or conducting large-scale validation studies is essential to enhance prediction accuracy and optimize patient care in this population.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:在腹膜透析(PD)中整合人工智能(AI)和机器学习(ML)为优化治疗结果和指导临床决策提供了变革性机会。本研究旨在全面概述AI/ML技术在PD中的应用,关注其预测临床结果和加强患者护理的潜力。
    方法:本系统综述是根据PRISMA指南(2020年)进行的,在关键数据库中搜索有关PD中AI和ML应用程序的文章。纳入标准是严格的,确保高质量研究的选择。搜索策略包括与PD相关的MeSH术语和关键词,AI,ML。识别了793篇文章,九人最终符合入选标准。由于预期的研究异质性,该综述采用了叙事综合方法来总结研究结果。
    结果:9项研究符合纳入标准。这些研究的样本量各不相同,并采用了不同的AI和ML技术,反映了所考虑数据的广度。死亡率预测是一个反复出现的主题,证明AI和ML在预后准确性中的重要性。预测性建模扩展到技术故障,住院时间预测,和病原体特异性免疫反应,展示AI和ML在PD中应用的多功能性。
    结论:本系统综述强调了AI/ML在腹膜透析中的多种应用,展示它们提高预测准确性的潜力,风险分层,和决策支持。然而,限制,如样本量小,单中心研究,和潜在的偏见需要进一步的研究和外部验证。未来的观点包括将这些AI/ML模型集成到常规临床实践中,并探索其他用例以改善PD中的患者预后和医疗保健决策。
    BACKGROUND: The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in peritoneal dialysis (PD) presents transformative opportunities for optimizing treatment outcomes and informing clinical decision-making. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the applications of AI/ML techniques in PD, focusing on their potential to predict clinical outcomes and enhance patient care.
    METHODS: This systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines (2020), searching key databases for articles on AI and ML applications in PD. The inclusion criteria were stringent, ensuring the selection of high-quality studies. The search strategy comprised MeSH terms and keywords related to PD, AI, and ML. 793 articles were identified, with nine ultimately meeting the inclusion criteria. The review utilized a narrative synthesis approach to summarize findings due to anticipated study heterogeneity.
    RESULTS: Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The studies varied in sample size and employed diverse AI and ML techniques, reflecting the breadth of data considered. Mortality prediction emerged as a recurrent theme, demonstrating the significance of AI and ML in prognostic accuracy. Predictive modeling extended to technique failure, hospital stay prediction, and pathogen-specific immune responses, showcasing the versatility of AI and ML applications in PD.
    CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review highlights the diverse applications of AI/ML in peritoneal dialysis, demonstrating their potential to enhance predictive accuracy, risk stratification, and decision support. However, limitations such as small sample sizes, single-center studies, and potential biases warrant further research and external validation. Future perspectives include integrating these AI/ML models into routine clinical practice and exploring additional use cases to improve patient outcomes and healthcare decision-making in PD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们的荟萃分析的目的是研究危重病患者营养风险(mNUTRIC)对危重病患者死亡率的影响。
    在PubMed,WebofScience,和科克伦图书馆到2023年8月26日。前瞻性或回顾性研究,患者>18岁,纳入了报告死亡率和mNUTRIC(mNUTRIC截止评分)的研究.QUIPS工具用于评估预后因素的偏倚风险。
    共有31项关于mNUTRIC评分的研究,纳入13,271例患者.曲线下的总面积(sAUC)为0.80(95%CI:0.76-0.83)说明mNUTRIC评分具有较强的区分度。合并敏感性为0.79(95%CI:0.74-0.84),合并特异性为0.68(95%CI:0.63-0.73)。在我们的亚组分析中,我们发现mNUTRIC的预测准确性在<5和>5的截止值之间没有明显的变化,sAUC值分别为0.82(95%CI:0.78-0.85)和0.78(95%CI:0.74-0.81)。分别。
    我们观察到mNUTRIC可以区分危重患者并预测其死亡率。
    CRD42023460292。
    PrakashJ,VermaS,什利瓦斯塔瓦·P,SaranK,KumariA,RajK,etal.改良的NUTRIC评分作为危重患者全因死亡率的预测因子:系统评价和荟萃分析。印度J暴击护理中心2024;28(5):495-503。
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of our meta-analysis was to look at the impact of modified nutrition risk in the critically ill (mNUTRIC) on mortality in patients with critical illness.
    UNASSIGNED: Literature relevant to this meta-analysis was searched in PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library till 26 August 2023. Prospective or retrospective studies, patients >18 years of age, studies that reported on mortality and mNUTRIC (mNUTRIC cut-off score) were included. The QUIPS tool was used to evaluate the risk for bias in prognostic factors.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 31 studies on mNUTRIC score, involving 13,271 patients were included. The summary area under the curve (sAUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83) illustrates the mNUTRIC score\'s strong discrimination. The pooled sensitivity was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.84) and pooled specificity was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.63-0.73). We found no discernible variation in the mNUTRIC\'s prediction accuracy among cut-off values of <5 and >5 in our subgroup analysis and sAUC values were 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78-0.85) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.74-0.81), respectively.
    UNASSIGNED: We observed that mNUTRIC can discriminate between critically ill individuals and predict their mortality.
    UNASSIGNED: CRD42023460292.
    UNASSIGNED: Prakash J, Verma S, Shrivastava P, Saran K, Kumari A, Raj K, et al. Modified NUTRIC Score as a Predictor of All-cause Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(5):495-503.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:总结有关使用机器学习(ML)进行姑息治疗实践和研究的可用文献,并评估已发表研究对最重要的ML最佳实践的依从性。方法:在MEDLINE数据库中搜索ML在姑息治疗实践或研究中的使用,并根据PRISMA指南筛选记录.结果:总的来说,22篇使用机器学习进行死亡率预测的出版物(n=15),数据注释(n=5),预测姑息治疗下的发病率(n=1),并预测对姑息治疗的反应(n=1)。出版物使用了各种监督或无监督模型,但主要是基于树的分类器和神经网络。两个出版物将代码上传到公共存储库,和一个出版物上传了数据集。结论:姑息治疗中的机器学习主要用于预测死亡率。与ML的其他应用类似,外部测试集和预期验证是例外。
    Objective: To summarize the available literature on using machine learning (ML) for palliative care practice as well as research and to assess the adherence of the published studies to the most important ML best practices. Methods: The MEDLINE database was searched for the use of ML in palliative care practice or research, and the records were screened according to PRISMA guidelines. Results: In total, 22 publications using machine learning for mortality prediction (n = 15), data annotation (n = 5), predicting morbidity under palliative therapy (n = 1), and predicting response to palliative therapy (n = 1) were included. Publications used a variety of supervised or unsupervised models, but mostly tree-based classifiers and neural networks. Two publications had code uploaded to a public repository, and one publication uploaded the dataset. Conclusions: Machine learning in palliative care is mainly used to predict mortality. Similarly to other applications of ML, external test sets and prospective validations are the exception.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    目的:中风的准确预测可能有助于适当的治疗和康复计划。在过去的几年里,几种机器学习(ML)算法被应用于卒中结局的预测.我们旨在研究基于机器学习的模型在预测卒中后死亡率方面的表现。以及确定最突出的死亡率因素。
    方法:我们在MEDLINE/PubMed和WebofScience数据库中搜索了有关机器学习在卒中死亡率预测中应用的原始出版物,在2011年1月1日至2022年10月27日之间发布。使用定制的QUADAS-2工具评估偏倚和适用性的风险。
    结果:在检索到的1015项研究中,共纳入28项研究。25项研究是回顾性的。ML模型显示了用于死亡率预测的AUC的有利范围(0.67-0.98)。在大多数文章中,这些模型适用于短期卒中后死亡率.模型中用于预测死亡率的解释性特征的数量在5到200之间,其中包括的变量有很大的重叠。年龄,高BMI和高NIHSS评分被认为是死亡率的重要预测因子.几乎所有研究在至少一个类别中都有很高的偏倚风险,并担心适用性。
    结论:使用机器学习,入院时可用的数据可能有助于卒中死亡率预测.尽管如此,目前的研究是基于很少的初步工作,具有高偏差风险和高异质性。因此,未来的前景,具有标准化报告的多中心研究对于牢固确定算法在卒中预测中的有用性至关重要。
    Accurate prognostication of stroke may help in appropriate therapy and rehabilitation planning. In the past few years, several machine learning (ML) algorithms were applied for prediction of stroke outcomes. We aimed to examine the performance of machine learning-based models for the prediction of mortality after stroke, as well as to identify the most prominent factors for mortality.
    We searched MEDLINE/PubMed and Web of Science databases for original publications on machine learning applications in stroke mortality prediction, published between January 1, 2011, and October 27, 2022. Risk of bias and applicability were evaluated using the tailored QUADAS-2 tool.
    Of the 1015 studies retrieved, 28 studies were included. Twenty-Five studies were retrospective. The ML models demonstrated a favorable range of AUC for mortality prediction (0.67-0.98). In most of the articles, the models were applied for short-term post stroke mortality. The number of explanatory features used in the models to predict mortality ranged from 5 to 200, with substantial overlap in the variables included. Age, high BMI and high NIHSS score were identified as important predictors for mortality. Almost all studies had a high risk of bias in at least one category and concerns regarding applicability.
    Using machine learning, data available at the time of admission may aid in stroke mortality prediction. Notwithstanding, current research is based on few preliminary works with high risk of bias and high heterogeneity. Thus, future prospective, multicenter studies with standardized reports are crucial to firmly establish the usefulness of the algorithms in stroke prognostication.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    心脏重症监护病房患者的医疗复杂性和高敏锐度使患者成为具有高发病率和死亡率的独特患者群体。虽然在其他环境中有许多预测死亡率的工具,心脏重症监护病房患者缺乏可靠的死亡率预测工具.人工智能和机器学习的不断进步也为死亡率预测的发展提供了潜在的资产。人工智能算法已被开发用于心电图解释的应用,具有有希望的准确性和临床应用。此外,已经开发了应用于心电图解释的人工智能算法来预测各种变量,例如结构性心脏病,左心室收缩功能障碍,和心房颤动。这些变量可用于新的死亡率预测模型,这些模型随患者临床病程的变化而变化,并可能导致更准确和可靠的死亡率预测。人工智能在死亡率预测中的应用将填补当前死亡率预测工具留下的空白。
    The medical complexity and high acuity of patients in the cardiac intensive care unit make for a unique patient population with high morbidity and mortality. While there are many tools for predictions of mortality in other settings, there is a lack of robust mortality prediction tools for cardiac intensive care unit patients. The ongoing advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning also pose a potential asset to the advancement of mortality prediction. Artificial intelligence algorithms have been developed for application of electrocardiogram interpretation with promising accuracy and clinical application. Additionally, artificial intelligence algorithms applied to electrocardiogram interpretation have been developed to predict various variables such as structural heart disease, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and atrial fibrillation. These variables can be used and applied to new mortality prediction models that are dynamic with the changes in the patient\'s clinical course and may lead to more accurate and reliable mortality prediction. The application of artificial intelligence to mortality prediction will fill the gaps left by current mortality prediction tools.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is commonly used in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate, prognosticate and assess patients. Since its validation, the SOFA score has served in various settings, including medical, trauma, surgical, cardiac, and neurological ICUs. It has been a strong mortality predictor and literature over the years has documented the ability of the SOFA score to accurately distinguish survivors from non-survivors on admission. Over the years, multiple variations have been proposed to the SOFA score, which have led to the evolution of alternate validated scoring models replacing one or more components of the SOFA scoring system. Various SOFA based models have been used to evaluate specific clinical populations, such as patients with cardiac dysfunction, hepatic failure, renal failure, different races and public health illnesses, etc. This study is aimed to conduct a review of modifications in SOFA score in the past several years. We review the literature evaluating various modifications to the SOFA score such as modified SOFA, Modified SOFA, modified Cardiovascular SOFA, Extra-renal SOFA, Chronic Liver Failure SOFA, Mexican SOFA, quick SOFA, Lactic acid quick SOFA (LqSOFA), SOFA in hematological malignancies, SOFA with Richmond Agitation-Sedation scale and Pediatric SOFA. Various organ systems, their relevant scoring and the proposed modifications in each of these systems are presented in detail. There is a need to incorporate the most recent literature into the SOFA scoring system to make it more relevant and accurate in this rapidly evolving critical care environment. For future directions, we plan to put together most if not all updates in SOFA score and probably validate it in a large database a single institution and validate it in multisite data base.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: The use of primary endocrine therapy (PET) in managing breast cancer in the elderly has become common practice. Whilst there appears to be no difference in overall survival in comparison with surgery, PET has been found to be inferior in local disease control with a limited duration of efficacy (2-3 years). The International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) state that PET may be considered in patients with a short life expectancy (<2 years) or considered unfit for surgery. Frequently, decision making for PET allocation is a subjective process by the clinician.
    METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed to establish what prediction models are available for all-cause mortality in the elderly, and what breast-specific models have been produced.
    RESULTS: 18 prognostic models were deemed eligible from 15 papers. 1 breast-specific model was found, 2 nursing home related and 15 for community-dwelling elders. Accuracy (as defined by discrimination; c-statistic or AUROC) ranged from 0.69 (moderate) to 0.86 (very good).
    CONCLUSIONS: This review highlighted a variety of validated prognostic indexes. Several models with very good accuracy were identified but most were validated in US-populations and relied on information from administrative datasets. One breast specific model by Stotter et al. was identified, specifically to aid treatment planning for frail elderly patients but had limited accuracy. The strength of an index will ultimately be on its clinical impact and influence on treatment decisions rather than its accuracy and as of yet no trials exploring this have been carried out.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:迄今为止,没有关于机器学习(ML)在烧伤护理中的评论。考虑到ML在医学中的增长以及烧伤护理的复杂性和挑战,这篇综述主要介绍ML在烧伤护理中的应用。目的是研究针对烧伤护理和研究各个方面的应用特征和影响。
    方法:MEDLINE,Cochrane系统评价数据库,ScienceDirect,并检索了相关主要文章和综述文章的引文综述,寻找涉及烧伤护理/研究和机器学习的研究.数据在研究设计上进行了抽象,研究规模,Year,人口,烧伤护理/研究的应用,ML技术,和算法性能。
    结果:15项涉及烧伤患者的回顾性观察研究符合纳入标准。在5105例急性热损伤患者中,171临床烧伤伤口,180个9聚体肽,研究中包括424种12聚体肽。研究集中在烧伤诊断(n=5),氨基糖苷类反应(n=3),住院时间(n=2),生存率/死亡率(n=4),烧伤愈合时间(n=1),烧伤患者的抗菌肽(n=1)。在这15项研究中,11使用人工神经网络。重要的是,所有研究都证明了ML在烧伤护理/研究中的益处,并且优于传统统计方法.然而,不同的作者对算法性能进行了不同的评估。特征选择因研究而异,但是具有类似应用程序的研究具有特定的特征,包括年龄,性别,存在吸入性损伤,全身表面积烧伤,如果有的话,不同程度的烧伤,感染,和烧伤患者以前的病史/状况。
    结论:可以确定烧伤治疗/研究中ML的共同特征基础,但ML的影响将需要在前瞻性观察研究和随机临床试验中进一步验证,建立通用的性能指标,以及关于临床和经济影响的高质量证据。只有这样,ML应用才能在烧伤护理/研究中得到改进和广泛接受。
    BACKGROUND: To date, there are no reviews on machine learning (ML) in burn care. Considering the growth of ML in medicine and the complexities and challenges of burn care, this review specializes on ML applications in burn care. The objective was to examine the features and impact of applications in targeting various aspects of burn care and research.
    METHODS: MEDLINE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, ScienceDirect, and citation review of relevant primary and review articles were searched for studies involving burn care/research and machine learning. Data were abstracted on study design, study size, year, population, application of burn care/research, ML technique(s), and algorithm performance.
    RESULTS: 15 retrospective observational studies involving burn patients met inclusion criteria. In total 5105 patients with acute thermal injury, 171 clinical burn wounds, 180 9-mer peptides, and 424 12-mer peptides were included in the studies. Studies focused on burn diagnosis (n=5), aminoglycoside response (n=3), hospital length of stay (n=2), survival/mortality (n=4), burn healing time (n=1), and antimicrobial peptides in burn patients (n=1). Of these 15 studies, 11 used artificial neural networks. Importantly, all studies demonstrated the benefits of ML in burn care/research and superior performance over traditional statistical methods. However, algorithm performance was assessed differently by different authors. Feature selection varied among studies, but studies with similar applications shared specific features including age, gender, presence of inhalation injury, total body surface area burned, and when available, various degrees of burns, infections, and previous histories/conditions of burn patients.
    CONCLUSIONS: A common feature base may be determined for ML in burn care/research, but the impact of ML will require further validation in prospective observational studies and randomized clinical trials, establishment of common performance metrics, and high quality evidence about clinical and economic impacts. Only then can ML applications be advanced and accepted widely in burn care/research.
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