Lumpy skin disease virus

结节性皮肤病病毒
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    提出了一种简单的方法,用于估计在传入一个国家时控制外来传染病流行所需的疫苗库规模。该方法适用于法国的块状皮肤病(LSD)流行病。所需疫苗库存的规模是根据一系列简单的方程计算的,这些方程使用一些三角函数,并考虑到疾病的传播,获得良好疫苗接种覆盖率所需的时间和受影响地区的牛密度。假设有7周的时间为所有动物接种疫苗,并且疾病的传播范围为7.3公里/周,740716头牛的疫苗接种足以在90%的模拟中控制法国的LSD流行(608196头牛将覆盖75%的模拟)。然后使用动态仿真模型验证了这种简单方法的结果,作为计算所需疫苗库存的参考。两种模型在不同场景下的差异,与为动物接种疫苗所需的时间有关,范围从7%到10.5%更多的疫苗使用简单的方法来覆盖90%的模拟,和从9.0%到13.8%的75%的模拟。该模型易于使用,可以适应不同国家的不同疾病的控制,只需使用一些简单的公式和很少的输入数据。
    A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.
    导出

    更多引用

    收藏

    翻译标题摘要

    我要上传

       PDF(Sci-hub)

       PDF(Pubmed)

公众号