Lassa virus

拉沙病毒
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    感染拉沙病毒(LASV)可引起拉沙热,出血性疾病,估计死亡率为29.7%,但对许多人没有或轻微的症状。这里,为了研究人类遗传变异是否是LASV感染异质性的基础,我们进行了全基因组关联研究(GWAS)以及血清阳性率调查,人类白细胞抗原分型和高通量变异功能鉴定试验。我们分析了尼日利亚和塞拉利昂在7年内招募的533例拉沙热病例和1,986名人口对照组的拉沙热易感性和致命结局。我们在尼日利亚队列中的GRM7和LIF附近检测到了与拉沙热致命结局相关的全基因组显著变异。我们还表明,具有阳性选择和重叠LARGE1特征的单倍型,这是必需的LASV进入因子,在尼日利亚队列中与拉沙热风险降低相关,但在塞拉利昂队列中与拉沙热风险降低相关.总的来说,我们确定了可能影响严重拉沙热风险的变异和基因,证明GWAS如何提供对病毒发病机制的见解。
    Infection with Lassa virus (LASV) can cause Lassa fever, a haemorrhagic illness with an estimated fatality rate of 29.7%, but causes no or mild symptoms in many individuals. Here, to investigate whether human genetic variation underlies the heterogeneity of LASV infection, we carried out genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as well as seroprevalence surveys, human leukocyte antigen typing and high-throughput variant functional characterization assays. We analysed Lassa fever susceptibility and fatal outcomes in 533 cases of Lassa fever and 1,986 population controls recruited over a 7 year period in Nigeria and Sierra Leone. We detected genome-wide significant variant associations with Lassa fever fatal outcomes near GRM7 and LIF in the Nigerian cohort. We also show that a haplotype bearing signatures of positive selection and overlapping LARGE1, a required LASV entry factor, is associated with decreased risk of Lassa fever in the Nigerian cohort but not in the Sierra Leone cohort. Overall, we identified variants and genes that may impact the risk of severe Lassa fever, demonstrating how GWAS can provide insight into viral pathogenesis.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:关于拉沙热在孕妇中的流行病学证据有限,感染发生率,和风险因素。这些证据将促进治疗和疫苗试验的设计以及控制计划的设计。我们的研究试图通过估计孕妇拉沙热的血清阳性率和血清转换风险来解决其中的一些差距。
    结果:我们于2019年2月至12月在江户州进行了一项基于医院的前瞻性队列研究,尼日利亚南部,在产前诊所登记孕妇,并在分娩时跟进她们。评估样品的针对拉沙病毒的IgG抗体。该研究表明,拉萨IgG抗体的血清阳性率为49.6%,血清转换风险为20.8%。血清阳性与房屋周围的啮齿动物暴露密切相关,归因风险比例为35%。血清水平也有13.4%的血清水平。
    结论:我们的研究表明,50%的孕妇有感染拉沙的风险,35.0%的感染可以通过避免啮齿动物的暴露和促进侵染的条件以及人类与啮齿动物接触的风险来预防。虽然关于啮齿动物暴露的证据是主观的,需要进一步的研究来更好地了解人类与啮齿动物相互作用的途径;降低啮齿动物侵染风险和溢出事件风险的公共卫生措施可能是有益的。估计血清转换风险为20.8%,我们的研究表明,怀孕期间感染拉沙热的风险很大,虽然大多数这些血清转化可能不是新的感染,鉴于妊娠不良结局的高风险,它支持在怀孕期间预防和治疗拉沙热的需要。在我们的研究中,血清学转化的发生表明,在这一研究中获得的患病率,和其他队列可能低估了在怀孕时出现LASV暴露的育龄妇女的实际比例。此外,该队列中血清转化和血清转化的发生表明,这些参数需要考虑拉沙疫苗效力的发展,有效性,和实用新型。
    There is limited epidemiological evidence on Lassa fever in pregnant women with acute gaps on prevalence, infection incidence, and risk factors. Such evidence would facilitate the design of therapeutic and vaccine trials and the design of control programs. Our study sought to address some of these gaps by estimating the seroprevalence and seroconversion risk of Lassa fever in pregnant women.
    We conducted a prospective hospital-based cohort between February and December 2019 in Edo State, Southern Nigeria, enrolling pregnant women at antenatal clinic and following them up at delivery. Samples were evaluated for IgG antibodies against Lassa virus. The study demonstrates a seroprevalence of Lassa IgG antibodies of 49.6% and a seroconversion risk of 20.8%. Seropositivity was strongly correlated with rodent exposure around homes with an attributable risk proportion of 35%. Seroreversion was also seen with a seroreversion risk of 13.4%.
    Our study suggests that 50% of pregnant women were at risk of Lassa infection and that 35.0% of infections might be preventable by avoiding rodent exposure and conditions which facilitate infestation and the risk of human-rodent contact. While the evidence on rodent exposure is subjective and further studies are needed to provide a better understanding of the avenues of human-rodent interaction; public health measures to decrease the risk of rodent infestation and the risk of spill over events may be beneficial. With an estimated seroconversion risk of 20.8%, our study suggests an appreciable risk of contracting Lassa fever during pregnancy and while most of these seroconversions may not be new infections, given the high risk of adverse outcomes in pregnancy, it supports the need for preventative and therapeutic options against Lassa fever in pregnancy. The occurrence of seroreversion in our study suggests that the prevalence obtained in this, and other cohorts may be an underestimate of the actual proportion of women of childbearing age who present at pregnancy with prior LASV exposure. Additionally, the occurrence of both seroconversion and seroreversion in this cohort suggests that these parameters would need to be considered for the development of Lassa vaccine efficacy, effectiveness, and utility models.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:先前研究的证据表明拉沙热,西非流行的病毒性出血热死亡率很高,特别是在怀孕期间。虽然在疫苗开发方面有显著的创新,一些拉萨疫苗正在进行早期临床试验。了解拉沙抗体动力学和免疫反应将支持疫苗设计和开发。然而,目前没有证据表明妊娠拉沙(LASV)的抗体动力学。我们的研究试图估计LASVIgG抗体从母亲到孩子的胎盘转移的效率。
    结果:该研究利用了在2019年2月至12月期间在产前诊所登记并在分娩时随访的前瞻性医院孕妇队列的数据。评估了来自母子对的血液样品的抗拉沙病毒抗体。该研究表明LASVIgG的经胎盘转移为75.3%[60.0-94.0%],母体和脐带浓度之间存在显着正相关,并且具有良好的一致性。该研究还表明,与具有预先存在的抗体的女性相比,具有“从头抗体”的女性的转移可能更加可变。
    结论:该研究表明,母体抗体水平在确定拉沙抗体向新生儿的转移效率中起重要作用;虽然证据是初步的,该研究还表明,在急性或近期感染中,转移效率可能不太稳定,怀孕前接种疫苗的时间,也就是说,育龄妇女可能更适合保护孕妇及其新生儿。
    Evidence from previous studies suggest that Lassa fever, a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic to West Africa has high case fatalities, particularly in pregnancy. While there have been remarkable innovations in vaccine development, with some Lassa vaccines undergoing early clinical trials. An understanding of Lassa antibody kinetics and immune responses will support vaccine design and development. However, there is currently no evidence on the antibody kinetics of Lassa (LASV) in pregnancy. Our study sought to estimate the efficiency of transplacental transfer of LASV IgG antibodies from the mother to the child.
    The study made use of data from a prospective hospital-based cohort of pregnant women enrolled at the antenatal clinic and followed up at delivery between February and December 2019. Blood samples from mother-child pairs were evaluated for antibodies against Lassa virus. The study demonstrates a transplacental transfer of LASV IgG of 75.3% [60.0-94.0%], with a significant positive correlation between maternal and cord concentrations and a good level of agreement. The study also suggests that transfer may be more variable in women with \'de novo\' antibodies compared to those with pre-existing antibodies.
    The study shows that maternal antibody levels play an important role in determining transfer efficiency of Lassa antibodies to the new-born; and while the evidence is preliminary, the study also suggests that transfer efficiency may be less stable in acute or recent infection, as such timing of vaccination before pregnancy, that is in women of childbearing age may be more appropriate for protection of both pregnant women and their neonates.
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  • 文章类型: Clinical Trial Protocol
    背景:拉沙热(LF),由拉沙热病毒(LASV)引起的出血性疾病,是西非的地方病,每年造成5000人死亡。LF的真实患病率和发病率未知,因为感染通常是无症状的。临床表现多种多样,和监控系统不健全。启用拉萨研究计划的目的是估计五个西非国家的LASV感染和LF疾病的发病率。这里描述的核心协议协调了关键的研究组件,如资格标准,案例定义,结果衡量标准,和实验室测试,这将最大限度地提高国家间分析数据的可比性。
    方法:我们正在贝宁进行一项前瞻性队列研究,几内亚,利比里亚,尼日利亚(三个地点),和塞拉利昂,从2020年到2023年,有24个月的随访。每个站点将评估LASV感染的发生率,LF病,或者两者兼而有之。当评估两种发病率时,将从LF群组(nmin=5000/位点)中抽取LASV群组(nmin=1000/位点)。在招募期间,参与者将填写有关家庭组成的问卷,社会经济地位,人口特征,和LF历史,和血液样本将被收集以确定IgGLASV血清状态。LF疾病队列参与者将每两周联系一次,以确定急性发热病例。将从中抽取血液样本,使用RT-PCR检测活跃的LASV感染。症状和治疗数据将从LF病例的医疗记录中提取。LF幸存者将在四个月后进行随访,以评估后遗症,特别是感音神经性听力损失。LASV感染队列参与者将被要求每六个月提供一次血液样本,以评估LASV血清状态(IgG和IgM)。
    结论:来自本研究计划的西非LASV感染和LF疾病发病率数据将确定LF候选疫苗未来IIb期或III期临床试验的可行性。
    Lassa fever (LF), a haemorrhagic illness caused by the Lassa fever virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa and causes 5000 fatalities every year. The true prevalence and incidence rates of LF are unknown as infections are often asymptomatic, clinical presentations are varied, and surveillance systems are not robust. The aim of the Enable Lassa research programme is to estimate the incidences of LASV infection and LF disease in five West African countries. The core protocol described here harmonises key study components, such as eligibility criteria, case definitions, outcome measures, and laboratory tests, which will maximise the comparability of data for between-country analyses.
    We are conducting a prospective cohort study in Benin, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria (three sites), and Sierra Leone from 2020 to 2023, with 24 months of follow-up. Each site will assess the incidence of LASV infection, LF disease, or both. When both incidences are assessed the LASV cohort (nmin = 1000 per site) will be drawn from the LF cohort (nmin = 5000 per site). During recruitment participants will complete questionnaires on household composition, socioeconomic status, demographic characteristics, and LF history, and blood samples will be collected to determine IgG LASV serostatus. LF disease cohort participants will be contacted biweekly to identify acute febrile cases, from whom blood samples will be drawn to test for active LASV infection using RT-PCR. Symptom and treatment data will be abstracted from medical records of LF cases. LF survivors will be followed up after four months to assess sequelae, specifically sensorineural hearing loss. LASV infection cohort participants will be asked for a blood sample every six months to assess LASV serostatus (IgG and IgM).
    Data on LASV infection and LF disease incidence in West Africa from this research programme will determine the feasibility of future Phase IIb or III clinical trials for LF vaccine candidates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:拉沙病毒(LASV),急性病毒性出血性疾病拉沙热(LF)的原因,是西非特有的。人类感染主要发生在暴露于啮齿动物宿主的被感染粪便或尿液后,纳塔尔人。塞拉利昂接触LASV的患病率是粗略估计的,并且在很大程度上是未知的。这项横断面研究旨在建立塞拉利昂三个行政区的LASVIgG抗体的基线血清阳性率,并确定血清阳性和LASV暴露的潜在危险因素。
    结果:在2015年至2018年之间,来自凯内马的10,642名参与者,Tonkolili,和PortLoko地区参加了这项横断面研究。以前的LASV和LF流行病学研究支持将这些地区分类为“地方性”,\"\"出现,\"和\"非地方性\",分别。通过ELISA检测干血斑样本的LASV抗体,以确定参与者的血清阳性。表明以前接触过LASV。对每个参与者进行调查,以评估与LASV暴露风险较高相关的人口和环境因素。LASV抗体的总血清阳性率为16.0%。在凯内马,洛科港,和Tonkolili区,血清效价为20.1%,14.1%,和10.6%,分别。在多变量分析中,如果他们居住在凯内马区,LASV血清阳性的可能性更大,不管性别,年龄,或职业。环境因素导致LASV暴露风险增加,包括不良的住房建设和靠近灌木丛,林区,拒绝。
    结论:在这项研究中,我们确定了三个地区的基线LASV血清阳性率,这将为未来的流行病学提供信息。生态,以及塞拉利昂LF和LASV的临床研究。LASV和LF在两个空间上分布的异质性,和时间,会使疗效试验和干预方案的设计变得困难。对LASV的患病率进行更多的研究并确定潜在的高流行区域将大大提高对LF的认识并改善与LASV相关的针对性控制程序。
    Lassa virus (LASV), the cause of the acute viral hemorrhagic illness Lassa fever (LF), is endemic in West Africa. Infections in humans occur mainly after exposure to infected excrement or urine of the rodent-host, Mastomys natalensis. The prevalence of exposure to LASV in Sierra Leone is crudely estimated and largely unknown. This cross-sectional study aimed to establish a baseline point seroprevalence of IgG antibodies to LASV in three administrative districts of Sierra Leone and identify potential risk factors for seropositivity and LASV exposure.
    Between 2015 and 2018, over 10,642 participants from Kenema, Tonkolili, and Port Loko Districts were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Previous LASV and LF epidemiological studies support classification of these districts as \"endemic,\" \"emerging,\" and \"non-endemic\", respectively. Dried blood spot samples were tested for LASV antibodies by ELISA to determine the seropositivity of participants, indicating previous exposure to LASV. Surveys were administered to each participant to assess demographic and environmental factors associated with a higher risk of exposure to LASV. Overall seroprevalence for antibodies to LASV was 16.0%. In Kenema, Port Loko, and Tonkolili Districts, seroprevalences were 20.1%, 14.1%, and 10.6%, respectively. In a multivariate analysis, individuals were more likely to be LASV seropositive if they were living in Kenema District, regardless of sex, age, or occupation. Environmental factors contributed to an increased risk of LASV exposure, including poor housing construction and proximity to bushland, forested areas, and refuse.
    In this study we determine a baseline LASV seroprevalence in three districts which will inform future epidemiological, ecological, and clinical studies on LF and the LASV in Sierra Leone. The heterogeneity of the distribution of LASV and LF over both space, and time, can make the design of efficacy trials and intervention programs difficult. Having more studies on the prevalence of LASV and identifying potential hyper-endemic areas will greatly increase the awareness of LF and improve targeted control programs related to LASV.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Only one recommendation currently exists for the treatment of Lassa fever (LF), which is ribavirin administered in conjunction with supportive care. This recommendation is primarily based on evidence generated from a single clinical trial that was conducted more than 30 years ago-the methodology and results of which have recently come under scrutiny. The requirement for novel therapeutics and reassessment of ribavirin is therefore urgent. However, a significant amount of work now needs to be undertaken to ensure that future trials for LF can be conducted consistently and reliably to facilitate the efficient generation of evidence.
    We convened a consultation group to establish the position of clinicians and researchers on the core components of future trials. A Core Eligibility Criteria (CEC), Core Case Definition (CCD), Core Outcome Set (COS) and Core Data Variables (CDV) were developed through the process of a multi-stakeholder consultation that took place using a modified-Delphi methodology.
    A consensus position was achieved for each aspect of the framework, which accounts for the inclusion of pregnant women and children in future LF clinical trials. The framework consists of 8 core criteria, as well as additional considerations for trial protocols.
    This project represents the first step towards delineating the clinical development pathway for new Lassa fever therapeutics, following a period of 40 years without advancement. Future planned projects will bolster the work initiated here to continue the advancement of LF clinical research through a regionally-centred, collaborative methodology, with the aim of delineating a clear pathway through which LF clinical trials can progress efficiently and ensure sustainable investments are made in research capacity at a regional level.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    迫切需要研究以降低拉沙热(LF)的发病率和死亡率,包括临床试验,以测试新疗法,并验证目前唯一的治疗建议的疗效和安全性,利巴韦林,临床证据基础薄弱。为了帮助建立适应发展的基础,标准化临床试验方法,我们进行了系统评价,以确定LF的临床特征和结局,并描述了LF在科学文献中的定义和评估.
    纳入2021年4月15日前发表在同行评审文献中的疑似和确诊LF患者的主要临床研究和报告。出版物是在对摘要进行两阶段筛选后选出的,然后全文,在每个阶段由两名独立审稿人。数据被提取,已验证,并使用描述性统计数据进行总结。
    包括147种出版物,主要是病例报告(36%),案例系列(28%),和队列研究(20%);仅发现2项准随机研究(1%)。数据主要来自尼日利亚(52%的个人,41%的出版物)和塞拉利昂(42%的个人,31%的出版物)。结果证实了世界卫生组织对LF表现的表征。然而,更广泛的症状表现是显而易见的,如胃肠道疾病和其他神经系统和肌肉骨骼疾病,通常不包括作为LF的指标。实验室确诊病例的总病死率为30%(在109份出版物中报告了1896/6373)。
    系统评价是在出版物有限的疾病的临床表征中的重要工具。本文的结果提供了对与临床试验设计相关的疾病谱的更完整的理解。这篇综述表明,需要在LF研究界进行协调,以产生协调的研究方法,这有助于为新疗法建立强有力的证据基础,并培养将其纳入临床护理的信心。
    Research is urgently needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality of Lassa fever (LF), including clinical trials to test new therapies and to verify the efficacy and safety of the only current treatment recommendation, ribavirin, which has a weak clinical evidence base. To help establish a basis for the development of an adaptable, standardised clinical trial methodology, we conducted a systematic review to identify the clinical characteristics and outcomes of LF and describe how LF has historically been defined and assessed in the scientific literature.
    Primary clinical studies and reports of patients with suspected and confirmed diagnosis of LF published in the peer-reviewed literature before 15 April 2021 were included. Publications were selected following a two-stage screening of abstracts, then full-texts, by two independent reviewers at each stage. Data were extracted, verified, and summarised using descriptive statistics.
    147 publications were included, primarily case reports (36%), case series (28%), and cohort studies (20%); only 2 quasi-randomised studies (1%) were found. Data are mostly from Nigeria (52% of individuals, 41% of publications) and Sierra Leone (42% of individuals, 31% of publications). The results corroborate the World Health Organisation characterisation of LF presentation. However, a broader spectrum of presenting symptoms is evident, such as gastrointestinal illness and other nervous system and musculoskeletal disorders that are not commonly included as indicators of LF. The overall case fatality ratio was 30% in laboratory-confirmed cases (1896/6373 reported in 109 publications).
    Systematic review is an important tool in the clinical characterisation of diseases with limited publications. The results herein provide a more complete understanding of the spectrum of disease which is relevant to clinical trial design. This review demonstrates the need for coordination across the LF research community to generate harmonised research methods that can contribute to building a strong evidence base for new treatments and foster confidence in their integration into clinical care.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: In 2018, the total number of Lassa fever cases in Nigeria was significantly higher than that observed in previous years. Hence, studies had attempted to determine the underlying cause. However, reports using phylogenetic methods to analyze this finding ruled out the emergence of potentially more transmissible Lassa virus strains or an increase in human-to-human viral transmission as the cause underlying the increase in cases. Two years later, the situation seems even worse as the number of confirmed cases has reached an all-time high according to situational reports released by the Nigerian Center for Disease Control.
    OBJECTIVE: Considering the increasing trend of Lassa fever cases and related mortality, the major objective of this study is to map mutations within the genomes of Lassa virus isolates from 2018 and 2019 using the reference sequence available at the National Center for Biotechnology Information as a benchmark and compare them to the genomes of viruses isolated during 1969-2017. This study would also attempt to identify a viral marker gene for easier identification and grouping. Finally, the time-scaled evolution of Lassa virus in Nigeria will be reconstructed.
    METHODS: After collecting the sequence data of Lassa virus isolates, Bayesian phylogenetic trees, a sequence identity matrix, and a single nucleotide polymorphism matrix will be generated using BEAST (version 2.6.2), Base-By-Base, and DIVEIN (a web-based tool for variant calling), respectively.
    RESULTS: Mining and alignment of Lassa virus genome sequences have been completed, while mutational analysis and the reconstruction of time-scaled maximum clade credibility trees, congruence tests for inferred segments, and gene phylogeny analysis are ongoing.
    CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study would further the current knowledge of the evolutionary history of the Lassa virus in Nigeria and would document the mutations in Nigerian isolates from 1969 to 2019.
    UNASSIGNED: DERR1-10.2196/23015.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in parts of west Africa. New treatments are needed to decrease mortality, but pretrial reference data on the disease characteristics are scarce. We aimed to document baseline characteristics and outcomes for patients hospitalised with Lassa fever in Nigeria.
    We did a prospective cohort study (LASCOPE) at the Federal Medical Centre in Owo, Nigeria. All patients admitted with confirmed Lassa fever were invited to participate and asked to give informed consent. Patients of all ages, including newborn infants, were eligible for inclusion, as were pregnant women. All participants received standard supportive care and intravenous ribavirin according to Nigeria Centre for Disease Control guidelines and underwent systematic biological monitoring for 30 days. Patients\' characteristics, care received, mortality, and associated factors were recorded using standard WHO forms. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to investigate an association between baseline characteristics and mortality at day 30.
    Between April 5, 2018, and March 15, 2020, 534 patients with confirmed Lassa fever were admitted to hospital, of whom 510 (96%) gave consent and were included in the analysis. The cohort included 258 (51%) male patients, 252 (49%) female patients, 426 (84%) adults, and 84 (16%) children (younger than 18 years). The median time between first symptoms and hospital admission was 8 days (IQR 7-13). At baseline, 176 (38%) of 466 patients had a Lassa fever RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) lower than 30. From admission to end of follow-up, 120 (25%) of 484 reached a National Early Warning Score (second version; NEWS2) of 7 or higher, 67 (14%) of 495 reached a Kidney Disease-Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) stage of 2 or higher, and 41 (8%) of 510 underwent dialysis. All patients received ribavirin for a median of 10 days (IQR 9-13). 62 (12%) patients died (57 [13%] adults and five [6%] children). The median time to death was 3 days (1-6). The baseline factors independently associated with mortality were the following: age 45 years or older (adjusted odds ratio 16·30, 95% CI 5·31-50·30), NEWS2 of 7 or higher (4·79, 1·75-13·10), KDIGO grade 2 or higher (7·52, 2·66-21·20), plasma alanine aminotransferase 3 or more times the upper limit of normal (4·96, 1·69-14·60), and Lassa fever RT-PCR Ct value lower than 30 (4·65, 1·50-14·50).
    Our findings comprehensively document clinical and biological characteristics of patients with Lassa fever and their relationship with mortality, providing prospective estimates that could be useful for designing future therapeutic trials. Such trials comparing new Lassa fever treatments to a standard of care should take no more than 15% as the reference mortality rate and consider adopting a combination of mortality and need for dialysis as the primary endpoint.
    Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, University of Oxford, EU, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les hépatites virales, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Lassa fever is endemic in several west African countries. Case-fatality rates ranging from 21% to 69% have been reported. The pathophysiology of the disease in humans and determinants of mortality remain poorly understood. We aimed to determine host protein biomarkers capable of determining disease outcome.
    In this observational study, we analysed left-over blood samples from patients who tested positive for Lassa fever at Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, between January, 2014, and April, 2017. We measured viral load, concentrations of clinical chemistry parameters, and levels of 62 circulating proteins involved in inflammation, immune response, and haemostasis. Patients with a known outcome (survival or death) and at least 200 μL of good-quality diagnostic sample were included in logistic regression modelling to assess the correlation of parameters with Lassa fever outcome. Individuals who gave consent could further be enrolled into a longitudinal analysis to assess the association of parameters with Lassa fever outcome over time. Participants were divided into two datasets for the statistical analysis: a primary dataset (samples taken between Jan 1, 2014, and April 1, 2016), and a secondary dataset (samples taken between April 1, 2016, and April 1, 2017). Biomarkers were ranked by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from highest (most predictive) to lowest (least predictive).
    Of 554 patients who tested positive for Lassa fever during the study period, 201 (131 in the primary dataset and 70 in the secondary dataset) were included in the biomarker analysis, of whom 74 (49 in the primary dataset and 25 in the secondary dataset) had died and 127 (82 in the primary dataset and 45 in the secondary dataset) had survived. Cycle threshold values (indicating viral load) and levels of 18 host proteins at the time of admission to hospital were significantly correlated with fatal outcome. The best predictors of outcome in both datasets were plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1; AUC 0·878 in the primary dataset and 0·876 in the secondary dataset), soluble thrombomodulin (TM; 0·839 in the primary dataset and 0·875 in the secondary dataset), and soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 1A (TNF-R1; 0·807 in the primary dataset and 0·851 in the secondary dataset), all of which had higher prediction accuracy than viral load (0·774 in the primary dataset and 0·837 in the secondary dataset). Longitudinal analysis (150 patients, of whom 36 died) showed that of the biomarkers that were predictive at admission, PAI-1 levels consistently decreased to normal levels in survivors but not in those who died.
    The identification of PAI-1 and soluble TM as markers of fatal Lassa fever at admission, and of PAI-1 as a marker of fatal Lassa fever over time, suggests that dysregulated coagulation and fibrinolysis and endothelial damage have roles in the pathophysiology of Lassa fever, providing a mechanistic explanation for the association of Lassa fever with oedema and bleeding. These novel markers might aid in clinical risk stratification and disease monitoring.
    German Research Foundation, Leibniz Association, and US National Institutes of Health.
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