Judgment

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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文的目的是更好地理解为什么专家在相同的品尝环境中对相同的葡萄酒给予不同的评分。这项研究侧重于专家(或法官)的个人特征,比如他们的性别,行业证书,和葡萄酒行业的职业,并检查法官如何回应他们的同龄人的特征。使用在2022年国际葡萄酒和烈酒大赛中评判的5395种葡萄酒的数据集,我们分析了来自不同评委的18224分。我们在法官级别估计了一系列等级方程,以了解为什么同一种葡萄酒从法官那里获得不同的分数。第一个模型利用数据集的面板结构,结合葡萄酒固定效果,并注重法官的个人特征。第二个模型包含了评审团队的特征,不包含葡萄酒固定效果。总的来说,贸易买家的得分低于非贸易买家,以及女性法官与男性法官相比。虽然证书本身不是一个非常重要的因素,它们确实有可能产生同伴效应。当法官被分配到葡萄酒大师评委的团队时,他们的评估往往更加慷慨。相反,当团队中的女法官人数增加时,它们也一直更加严重。估计结果在子数据集之间收敛,除了起泡酒。鉴于葡萄酒行业的女性化,就生产者而言,消费者,和专家,就社会福利而言,女法官的严厉程度可能是有益的。
    The aim of this article is to better understand why experts give different scores to the same wines in identical tasting environments. This research focuses on the personal characteristics of experts (or judges), such as their gender, industry credentials, and occupation within the wine industry, and examines how judges respond to their peers\' characteristics. Using a dataset of 5,395 wines judged in the 2022 International Wine and Spirits Competition, we analyse 18,224 scores from different judges. We estimate a series of grade equations at the judge level to understand why a same wine received different scores from judges. A first model makes use of the panel structure of the dataset, incorporates wine fixed effects, and focuses on the personal characteristics of judges. A second model encompasses characteristics of the judging team, without the inclusion of wine fixed effects. At large, on-trade buyers give lower scores than off-trade buyers, as well as female judges compared to male ones. While credentials are not a very significant factor per se, they do have the potential to generate peer effects. Judges tend to be more generous in their assessments when they are assigned to a team with Master of Wine judges. Conversely, they are also consistently more severe when the number of female judges on the team increases. Estimation results converge across sub-datasets, with the exception of sparkling wines. Given the feminisation of the wine industry, in terms of producers, consumers, and experts, the severity of female judges could be beneficial in terms of social welfare.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    可解释性是提高人工智能在医学中可信度的关键。然而,医生对模型可解释性的期望与这些模型的实际行为之间存在显著差距。这种差距是由于缺乏以医生为中心的评估框架的共识。需要定量评估有效的可解释性应为从业者提供的实际利益。这里,我们假设优越的注意力映射,作为一种模型解释的机制,应该与医生关注的信息保持一致,潜在地降低预测不确定性并提高模型可靠性。我们使用多模式变压器使用临床数据和磁共振成像来预测直肠癌的淋巴结转移。我们探索了注意力地图有多好,通过最先进的技术可视化,可以与医生的理解达成一致。随后,我们比较了两种不同的不确定性估计方法:仅使用预测概率方差的独立估计,以及考虑预测概率方差和量化一致性的人在环估计。我们的发现表明,与独立方法相比,人在环方法没有显着优势。总之,本案例研究未证实该解释在增强模型可靠性方面的预期益处.肤浅的解释可能弊大于利,误导医生依赖不确定的预测,这表明,在模型可解释性的背景下,不应高估注意力机制的当前状态。
    Explainability is key to enhancing the trustworthiness of artificial intelligence in medicine. However, there exists a significant gap between physicians\' expectations for model explainability and the actual behavior of these models. This gap arises from the absence of a consensus on a physician-centered evaluation framework, which is needed to quantitatively assess the practical benefits that effective explainability should offer practitioners. Here, we hypothesize that superior attention maps, as a mechanism of model explanation, should align with the information that physicians focus on, potentially reducing prediction uncertainty and increasing model reliability. We employed a multimodal transformer to predict lymph node metastasis of rectal cancer using clinical data and magnetic resonance imaging. We explored how well attention maps, visualized through a state-of-the-art technique, can achieve agreement with physician understanding. Subsequently, we compared two distinct approaches for estimating uncertainty: a standalone estimation using only the variance of prediction probability, and a human-in-the-loop estimation that considers both the variance of prediction probability and the quantified agreement. Our findings revealed no significant advantage of the human-in-the-loop approach over the standalone one. In conclusion, this case study did not confirm the anticipated benefit of the explanation in enhancing model reliability. Superficial explanations could do more harm than good by misleading physicians into relying on uncertain predictions, suggesting that the current state of attention mechanisms should not be overestimated in the context of model explainability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医疗保健中优先级设置的原则通常是由受有关优先级设置的规范性文献影响的专家制定的。同时,它们的实施需要民主审议,政治压力,行政官僚主义。有时专家建议被民主拒绝。这就指向了一个问题:一方面,大多数人分享道德信仰的事实并不能固有地证实这种信仰。另一方面,在为他人辩护时,如果不参与他们的道德判断,我们就不能指望成功。在这项工作中,我们研究了在反射平衡过程中包含所谓的流行观点的可能性。在反射平衡过程中,我们通常对经过深思熟虑的判断感兴趣,而不仅仅是直觉。热门观点,可以说,往往达不到这个标准。为了缓解这种情况,我们建议通过将流行观点与呼应类似道德观点的理论框架联系起来来支持流行观点。我们使用疾病严重程度作为案例研究,并表明一组受欢迎的帐户可以提供值得考虑的判断,值得纳入公开知情的反思平衡过程。这似乎是寻求既规范合理又为公众所接受的优先原则的前进道路。我们的方法提供了一个通用框架,用于完善有关道德问题的流行观点的可用数据,包括当我们无法评估这些观点的考虑时。
    Principles for priority setting in health care are typically forged by experts influenced by the normative literature on priority setting. Meanwhile, their implementation is subject to democratic deliberation, political pressures, and administrative bureaucracy. Sometimes expert proposals are democratically rejected. This points towards a problem: on the one hand, the fact that a majority shares a moral belief does not inherently validate this belief. On the other hand, when justifying a position to others, we cannot expect much success without engaging with their moral judgments. In this work we examine the possibility of including so-called popular views in a reflective equilibrium process. In reflective equilibrium processes, we are usually interested in considered judgments rather than mere intuitions. Popular views, arguably, often do not meet this standard. To mitigate this, we propose to bolster popular views by linking them with theoretical frameworks echoing similar moral perspectives. We use illness severity as a case study and show that a set of popular accounts can provide considered judgments that merit inclusion in a publicly informed reflective equilibrium process. This is plausibly a way forward in the search for priority setting principles that are both normatively sound and acceptable to the public. Our method provides a general framework for refining available data on popular views on moral questions, including when we cannot assess the consideredness of such views.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:为了评估药品与报告事件之间的因果关系,需要提供相关信息。预定义了用于评估怀孕期间接触药品病例的信息元素,并将其用于新工具中,以评估信息质量。然而,这些预定义信息元素的存在或不存在与这些病例的整体临床质量相关的程度,根据药物警戒专家的评估,仍然不确定。
    目的:我们旨在验证一种评估真实世界妊娠药物警戒病例报告中信息临床质量的新方法。
    方法:从自发报告中评估有关药品暴露和妊娠相关结局的病例报告的临床质量,文学,畸胎学信息服务(英国和瑞士),荷兰怀孕药物登记册,Gilenya怀孕登记和诺华的增强PV计划。评估是通过基于信息的存在和相关性的新型标准化工具进行的,根据专家的判断。与专家评估相比,该新颖工具已被验证为黄金标准,表示为接受者工作特征曲线下的面积。之后,使用交叉表格计算敏感性和特异性.评分者间的变异性是通过加权科恩的卡帕来确定的。
    结果:纳入了186例病例报告。通过新方法评估的临床质量评分分为三类,临界值为45%(差到中等)和65%(中等到优秀)。差到中、中到优的灵敏度分别为0.93和0.96,分别。特异性分别为0.52和0.73。新开发的方法的评分者间变异性为0.65(95%置信区间0.53-0.78),金标准评估为0.40(95%置信区间0.28-0.52)。
    结论:本研究中使用信息元素的存在和相关性描述的工具是第一个设计的,用于评估妊娠药物警戒数据中病例报告信息质量的验证和标准化方法。与与妊娠相关的药物警戒数据专家进行的质量评估相比,这种方法赋予了较小的评估者之间的差异。
    BACKGROUND: To assess the causal relationship between a medicinal product and a reported event, relevant information needs to be present. Information elements for assessing cases of exposure to medicinal products during pregnancy were predefined and used in a new tool to assess the quality of information. However, the extent in which the presence or absence of these predefined information elements is associated with the overall clinical quality of these cases, as evaluated by pharmacovigilance experts, remains uncertain.
    OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a novel method to assess the clinical quality of information in real-world pregnancy pharmacovigilance case reports.
    METHODS: The clinical quality of case reports regarding medicinal product exposure and pregnancy-related outcomes was appraised from spontaneous reports, literature, Teratology Information Services (UK and Switzerland), The Dutch Pregnancy Drug Register, the Gilenya pregnancy registry and the Enhanced PV programme of Novartis. Assessment was done by means of the novel standardised tool based on the presence and relevance of information, and by expert judgement. The novel tool was validated compared to the expert assessment as the gold standard expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, after which the sensitivity and specificity were calculated using cross-tabulations. Inter-rater variability was determined by means of weighted Cohen\'s kappa.
    RESULTS: One hundred and eighty-six case reports were included. The clinical quality score as assessed by the novel method was divided into three categories with cut-off values of 45% (poor to intermediate) and 65% (intermediate to excellent). Sensitivity was 0.93 and 0.96 for poor to intermediate and intermediate to excellent, respectively. Specificity was respectively 0.52 and 0.73. Inter-rater variability was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.53-0.78) for the newly developed approach, and 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.28-0.52) for the gold standard assessment.
    CONCLUSIONS: The tool described in this study using the presence and relevance of elements of information is the first designed, validated and standardised method for the assessment of the quality of information of case reports in pregnancy pharmacovigilance data. This method confers less inter-rater variability compared with a quality assessment by experts of pregnancy-related pharmacovigilance data.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究旨在更好地理解和阐明有经验的临床促进者在评估从事临床实习的护生时通常使用的评估前判断过程。
    背景:在澳大利亚的背景下,临床协调员是注册护士,主要是教育,监视器,支持和评估护理学生在临床实习中的小组,而无需承担患者负担。临床协调员的职责和范围在国际和机构环境中可能有所不同。然而,尽管存在这些差异,但本文的核心概念仍将是相关的,因为主持人对在安置期间对个别护理学生的表现做出预评估判断的信心的重要性已得到普遍认可。护理学生经常被评估他们提供的安全实践,以患者任务为导向的结果和专业行为。在正式评估之前清楚地阐明成绩判断对于确保学生的渐进式学习至关重要。文献报道,许多临床促进者对做出表现判断的艺术缺乏信心,并呼吁在护理专业学生的临床评估中进行有针对性的专业培训和支持。为了更好地理解和解决这个问题,临床促进者需要对个别护生在安置体验期间的评估前表现判断有共同的理解.
    方法:采用定性案例研究,通过半结构化访谈收集的数据。15名澳大利亚临床促进者参加了会议,每个人都有超过六个月的经验。
    方法:通过解释-建构主义范式分析访谈笔录。主题分析揭示了主题,然后通过应用认知连续理论进行演绎描述。
    结果:数据综合过程中出现了六种评估前判断模式:1)识别模式,2)承认不确定性,3)了解关键参与者,4)验证或反驳信息,5)基准性能和6)上下文信息。通过认知连续理论的演绎应用验证了每种模式。
    结论:了解有经验的临床主持人如何做出评估前的绩效判断,有可能增加对绩效判断决策的信心。反过来,对判断的信心将增加临床促进者给护生提供可以解释和证明的反馈的能力。预评估判断框架还提供了一个初步模型,用于向护理以外的学科的临床教育工作者传授准确的表现判断的艺术。
    OBJECTIVE: This study aims to better understand and articulate the pre-assessment judgement processes commonly used by experienced clinical facilitators when assessing nursing students undertaking clinical placement.
    BACKGROUND: In the Australian context, clinical facilitators are registered nurses who primarily educate, monitor, support and assess groups of nursing students on clinical placements without carrying a patient load. The duties and scope of clinical facilitators may differ across international and institutional contexts. However, the core concepts of this paper will be relevant despite these differences as the importance of facilitators\' confidence in making pre-assessment judgements of individual nursing student performance while on placement is universally acknowledged. Nursing students are often assessed on their provision of safe practice, patient task-orientated outcomes and professional behaviour. Clearly articulating performance judgements prior to formal assessment is vital to ensure progressive learning of students. Literature reports that many clinical facilitators lack confidence in the art of making performance judgements and call for targeted professional training and support in the clinical assessment of nursing students. To better understand and address this problem, clinical facilitators need a shared understanding of how individual nursing students\' pre-assessment performance judgements are reached during placement experiences.
    METHODS: A qualitative case study was used, with data collected via semi-structured interviews. Fifteen Australian clinical facilitators participated, each with over six months of experience.
    METHODS: Interview transcripts were analysed through an interpretive-constructivist paradigm. Thematic analysis revealed themes that were then deductively described through the application of the Cognitive Continuum Theory.
    RESULTS: Six modes of pre-assessment judgement emerged from the data synthesis process: 1) Recognising patterns, 2) Acknowledging uncertainty, 3) Understanding key players, 4) Verifying or refuting the information, 5) Benchmarking performance and 6) Contextualising information. Each mode is validated through the deductive application of the Cognitive Continuum theory.
    CONCLUSIONS: Understanding how experienced clinical facilitators make pre-assessment performance judgements has the potential to increase confidence in performance judgement decisions. In turn, confidence in judgements will increase clinical facilitator\'s capacity to give nursing students feedback that can be explained and justified. The pre-assessment judgement framework also provides a preliminary model for teaching the art of reaching accurate performance judgements to clinical educators in disciplines beyond nursing.
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  • 文章类型: Case Reports
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:研究表明,新的护理毕业生在临床推理中挣扎,尽管他们在整个教育过程中都有一些相关的技能发展。问题仍然存在,“早期关注护理课程中的临床推理是否可以提高护理专业学生的临床推理能力?”
    目的:这项试点研究调查了第一学期护理专业学生如何看待案例研究在临床推理技能发展中的使用以及与NCSBN临床判断测量模型(NCJMM)相关的案例研究的益处。
    方法:将案例研究和书面思考引入了第一学期护理专业学生的便利样本(n=45)。对书面反思进行了定性分析。
    结果:学生发现案例研究增强了他们的知识,并为他们作为护士的临床实践做好了准备。
    结论:研究结果表明,早期引入案例研究是开发与NCJMM相一致的临床推理的有意义的教学策略。
    BACKGROUND: Research indicates new nursing graduates struggle with clinical reasoning, despite some related skill development throughout their education. The question remains, \"Could an earlier focus on clinical reasoning in nursing programs enhance nursing students\' clinical reasoning?\"
    OBJECTIVE: This pilot study investigated how first-semester nursing students perceive the use of case studies in clinical reasoning skill development and the perceived benefits of case studies related to the NCSBN Clinical Judgment Measurement Model (NCJMM).
    METHODS: Case studies and written reflections were introduced to a convenience sample (n = 45) of first-semester nursing students. Qualitative analysis was conducted on written reflections.
    RESULTS: Students found case studies enhanced their knowledge and prepared them for clinical practice as a nurse.
    CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest early introduction of case studies is a meaningful teaching strategy to develop clinical reasoning aligned with the NCJMM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:为学生准备下一代国家委员会执照考试-注册护士(NCLEX-RN),护士教育者需要制定教学策略来培养学生的临床判断力。
    目的:本研究考察了展开基于案例的学习(CBL)对本科护理专业学生毕业后临床判断的影响。
    方法:采用前瞻性队列设计。在美国一所护理学校,比较了正在展开的CBL(n=140)和非CBL(n=126)队列之间的学生对Lasater临床判断规则的自我报告反应。
    结果:虽然研究队列中学生的反应相似,在正在展开的CBL队列中,学生的临床判断有改善的趋势.此外,展开CBL显着提高了学生进行重点观察的感知能力。
    结论:研究结果支持在整个本科护理课程中早期引入和一致使用不断发展的CBL,以便学生有足够的机会和背景在课堂上培养临床判断能力。
    To prepare students for Next Generation National Council Licensure Examination-Registered Nurse (NCLEX-RN), nurse educators need to develop teaching strategies to foster students\' clinical judgment.
    This study examined the effects of unfolding case-based learning (CBL) on baccalaureate nursing students\' clinical judgment upon graduation.
    A prospective cohort design was adopted. Students\' self-reported responses to the Lasater Clinical Judgment Rubric were compared between the unfolding CBL (n = 140) and non-CBL (n = 126) cohorts at a school of nursing in the United States.
    While students\' responses were similar between the study cohorts, a trend was noted for improved clinical judgment among students in the unfolding CBL cohort. Furthermore, unfolding CBL significantly enhanced students\' perceived proficiency in conducting focused observation.
    The findings support early introduction and consistent use of the unfolding CBL throughout the undergraduate nursing program so that students have ample opportunities and contexts to cultivate clinical judgment skills in the classroom.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:无论是隐式还是显式,专业判断是高收入国家实施的许多护士人员配备系统的核心组成部分,用于为员工队伍规划和员工部署提供信息。虽然大量研究已经评估了护士人员配备系统的技术和操作要素,没有研究系统地研究了专业判断的作用及其对决策的贡献。
    目的:探讨在英格兰和威尔士的护士配置系统中护士职业判断的运用。
    方法:跨病例比较设计集中于威尔士的三个大学健康委员会和英格兰的三个国家健康服务信托基金的成人住院服务。数据生成是在2021年1月至2023年3月之间通过利益相关者访谈进行的,人员配置会议的意见,以及文件和文物的分析。观察是在临床领域进行的,但根据COVID-19的限制,仅限于3例。分析是由翻译动员理论提供的。
    结果:在护士配置系统中部署了两种职业判断:临床护士的判断和高级护士管理者的判断。研究强调了专业判断与数据之间的反身关系,以及组织对人的信任以及对人数的信任的情况。护士的专业判断是数据生成的核心,它的解释和语境化。医疗机构依靠临床护士和高级护士经理的专业判断来做出降低风险的运营决策。在现实世界中,对组织地位的理解优先于正式数据。专业判断削弱了劳动力规划的权威,数据是一个主要的演员。护士表示担心战略决策优先考虑安全和效率,正式的测量系统没有捕捉到护理质量或员工福祉的重要方面,这使得很难表达他们的专业判断。
    结论:人员配置系统的实施是资源密集型的。鉴于推荐任何具体方法的证据有限,未来研究的重点是优化现有系统。如果护士要运用他们的专业判断来主动影响护理条件,以及应对风险缓解的挑战,需要与商定的护理标准和词汇相一致的稳健的护理测量系统,通过该词汇可以阐明这些判断。
    结论:卫生系统依赖于护士的专业判断来决定运营人员配置,但是对于劳动力规划,数据优先于专业判断。
    BACKGROUND: Whether implicit or explicit, professional judgement is a central component of the many nurse staffing systems implemented in high-income countries to inform workforce planning and staff deployment. Whilst a substantial body of research has evaluated the technical and operational elements of nurse staffing systems, no studies have systematically examined the role of professional judgement and its contribution to decision-making.
    OBJECTIVE: To explore nurses\' use of professional judgement in nurse staffing systems in England and Wales.
    METHODS: A cross-case comparative design centred on adult in-patient services in three University Health Boards in Wales and three National Health Service Trusts in England. Data generation was undertaken between January 2021 and March 2023 through stakeholder interviews, observations of staffing meetings, and analysis of documents and artefacts. Observations were undertaken in clinical areas but limited to three cases by COVID-19 restrictions. Analysis was informed by translational mobilisation theory.
    RESULTS: Two kinds of professional judgement were deployed in the nurse staffing systems: the judgement of clinical nurses and the judgement of senior nurse managers. The research highlighted the reflexive relationship between professional judgement and data, and the circumstances in which organisations placed trust in people and when they placed trust in numbers. Nurses\' professional judgement was central to the generation of data, its interpretation and contextualisation. Healthcare organisations relied on the professional judgements of clinical nurses and senior nurse managers in making operational decisions to mitigate risk, where real-world understanding of the status of the organisation was privileged over formal data. Professional judgement had attenuated authority for the purposes of workforce planning, where data was a master actor. Nurses expressed concerns that strategic decision-making prioritised safety and efficiency, and formal measurement systems did not capture important aspects of care quality or staff wellbeing, which made it difficult to articulate their professional judgement.
    CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of staffing systems is resource intensive. Given limited evidence on which to recommend any specific methodology, the priority for future research is to optimise existing systems. If nurses are to deploy their professional judgement to proactively influence the conditions for care, as well as responding to the challenges of risk mitigation, there is a need for robust systems of nursing measurement aligned with agreed standards of care and a vocabulary through which these judgements can be articulated.
    CONCLUSIONS: Health systems depend on nurses\' professional judgement for operational staffing decisions, but data is privileged over professional judgement for workforce planning.
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