截至2022年5月,人类猴痘(MPOX)疾病的新爆发在多个国家。2022年人类MPOX疾病传播超过109例,将疑似病例排除至2022年底。截至同一日期,2022年人类MPOX的死亡人数超过200例。人类MPOX并不是一种新的疾病,这种疾病曾经在非洲大陆的一些国家流行。尽管如此,这种疾病于2022年开始在世界许多国家传播。5月,英国记录了首例2022年人类MPOX病例。在那个日期之后,这种疾病开始在其他一些国家流行,比如美国,西班牙,和巴西。2022年人类MPOX是一种由病毒引起的病毒性疾病,MPOX病毒,这种病毒会在病人的皮肤上引起皮疹和损伤,以及在病人的嘴里。多种有效指标用于2022年人类MPOX的研究,例如人类MPOX(HIhMPOX)的群体免疫,人类MPOX的基本繁殖数(BRNhMPOX),和人MPOX的感染期。本研究的重点是对牛群免疫的研究,和2022年全球多个国家爆发人类MPOX的基本繁殖数。本研究采用了敏感室S的半分析方法,感染隔间I,恢复室R(SIR)大流行模型,包括用于研究群体免疫的死亡率,和2022年人类MPOX病的基本繁殖数。发现2022年人类MPOX疾病的群体免疫平均值等于0.2194,即多个国家为21.94%,相当于美国的35.52%,西班牙为30.99%。此外,发现2022年人类MPOX疾病的基本繁殖数的平均值在多个国家等于1.2810。从这些值可以得出结论,必须以有效的方式对全部易感人群的21.94%进行免疫接种,以防止疾病的传播。此外,基于以前的值,结论是,2022年MPOX疾病的状况正在作为大流行传播。
As of May 2022, a new outbreak of the human monkeypox (MPOX) disease appeared in multiple countries, where the 2022 human MPOX disease spread to more than 109 cases, excluding the suspected cases up to the end of 2022. The deaths of the 2022 human MPOX exceeded 200 cases up to the same date. The human MPOX is not a new disease, this disease was once endemic in some countries on the African continent. Despite this, this disease began to spread in a number of countries around the world in 2022. The first
case of the 2022 human MPOX was recorded in the United Kingdom in May. After that date, this disease began to become a pandemic in a number of other countries, such as the United States, Spain, and Brazil. The 2022 human MPOX is a type of viral disease caused by a viral virus, the MPOX virus, and this virus causes rashes and lesions over the skin of the patient, as well as in the mouth of the patient. Multiple effective indicators are employed for the study of the 2022 of the human MPOX, such as the herd immunity of the human MPOX (HIhMPOX), the basic reproduction number of the human MPOX (BRNhMPOX), and the infection period of the human MPOX. This study focuses on the study of the herd immunity of, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 outbreak of human MPOX in multiple countries around the world. This study employed the semianalytical method of the Susceptible compartment S, Infectious compartment I, Recovered compartment R (SIR) pandemic model including the mortality for the study of the herd immunity, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease. It is found that the average value of the herd immunity for the human MPOX disease in 2022 equals to 0.2194, that is, 21.94% for multiple countries, and equals to 35.52% for the United States, and 30.99% for Spain. Also, it is found that the average value of the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease equals to 1.2810 for multiple countries. It is concluded from these values that 21.94% of the total susceptible population has to be immunized in an effective way to prevent the spreading of the disease. Also, based on the previous values, it is concluded that the status of the 2022 MPOX disease is spreading as a pandemic.