预测吉林省“十四五”期间卫生资源配置的发展,为促进其服务能力的提高提供科学依据。2015-2022年卫生资源数据来源于《吉林省统计年鉴》,以及医疗机构的数量,医疗床,卫生技术人员,执业(助理)医师,以注册护士和药师为评价指标,用Python构建的灰色预测模型对2023年至2025年的发展进行了预测。在十四五期间,吉林省卫生资源呈增长趋势,据预测,到2025年,医疗机构的数量,医疗床,卫生技术人员,执业(助理)医师,注册护士,吉林省的药师将分别达到28,999、196,328、262,219、101,273、129,586和9469。除了药剂师团队未能达到十四五计划的规划目标外,剩余的卫生资源可以满足规划要求。吉林省卫生资源配置水平不断提高,但它仍然面临医疗床位配置需要优化的问题,医生-护士比例需要提高,注册护士储备不足,药剂师团队有缺口,药学服务发展缓慢。
To predict the development of health resource allocation in Jilin Province during the 14th 5-Year Plan period, and to provide a scientific basis for promoting the improvement of its service capacity. The data of the health resource from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from the Jilin Statistical Yearbook, and the number of medical institutions, medical beds, health technicians, licensed (assistant) physicians, registered nurses and pharmacists were selected as evaluation indicators, and the grey prediction model constructed by Python was used to predict the development from 2023 to 2025. In the 14th 5-Year Plan period, the health resource in Jilin Province showed an increasing trend, and it is predicted that in 2025, the number of medical institutions, medical beds, health technicians, licensed (assistant) physicians, registered nurses, and pharmacists in Jilin Province will reach 28,999, 196,328, 262,219, 101,273, 129,586, and 9469, respectively. Except that the pharmacist team failed to meet the planning objectives of the 14th 5-Year Plan, the remaining health resources could meet the planning requirements. The allocation level of health resources in Jilin Province has been continuously improved, but it still faces the problems that the allocation of medical beds needs to be optimized, the doctor-nurse ratio needs to be improved, the reserve of registered nurses is insufficient, there is a gap in the pharmacist team, and the development of pharmacy services is slow.