烟草(烟草)具有极高的经济价值,药用价值,科学研究价值和其他一些用途。虽然它已经在世界各地广泛种植,其适宜栖息地的分类和变化尚不清楚,尤其是在全球变暖的背景下。为了实现烟草的合理种植和可持续发展,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS平台,根据854个发生数据和22个环境因素,预测了烟草的当前(1970-2000年的平均值)和未来(2070年,2061-2080年的平均值)潜在适宜生境。结果显示,最温暖的四分之一(bio10)的平均温度,年降水量(生物12),9月的太阳辐射(Strad9),和粘土含量(粘土)是烟草分布的四个决定性环境变量。在当前的气候条件下,烟草的适宜生境主要分布在欧洲中南部,北美洲中南部,南美洲的大部分地区,中部非洲,南亚和东南亚,和澳大利亚的东南海岸,这些地区只有13.7%是高度适宜的。到2070年,SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5气候情景下的合适栖息地都将以SSP3-7.0情景下的最大增幅增加,而在SSP2-4.5气候情景下,合适的栖息地会减少。全球范围内,在四种不同的气候情景下,利比亚境内适宜栖息地的质心将不同程度地向东南迁移。在每种气候情景下,新生境的出现和旧生境的消失都会同时发生,以及每个领域的具体变化,结合当前气候条件下的预测结果,将为当前和今后烟草农艺措施的调整和合理栽培提供重要参考。
Nicotiana tabacum L. (tobacco) has extremely high economic value, medicinal value, scientific research value and some other uses. Though it has been widely cultivated throughout the world, classification and change of its suitable habitats is not that clear, especially in the context of global warming. In order to achieve rational cultivation and sustainable development of tobacco, current (average from 1970-2000) and future (2070, average from 2061-2080) potential suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were forecasted with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS platform based on 854 occurrence data and 22 environmental factors in this
study. The results revealed that mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), annual precipitation (bio12), solar radiation in September (Srad9), and clay content (CLAY) were the four decisive environment variables for the distribution of Nicotiana tabacum L. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats of Nicotiana tabacum L. were mainly distributed in south-central Europe, south-central North America, most parts of South America, central Africa, south and southeast Asia, and southeast coast of Australia, and only 13.7% of these areas were highly suitable. By the year 2070, suitable habitats under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios would all increase with the largest increase found under SSP3-7.0 scenario, while suitable habitats would reduce under SSP2-4.5 climate scenario. Globally, the center of mass of suitable habitats would migrate to southeast to varying degrees within Libya under four different climate scenarios. The emergence of new habitats and the disappearance of old habitats would all occur simultaneously under each climate scenario, and the specific changes in each area, combined with the prediction results under current climate conditions, will provide an important reference for the adjustment of agronomic practices and rational cultivation of Nicotiana tabacum L. both currently and in the future.