红树林双壳类动物,阿纳达拉·结核病和阿纳达拉·西米尼斯,对哥伦比亚太平洋沿岸红树林生态系统和经济至关重要。在这项研究中,这些双壳类动物当前和未来的潜在分布是考虑气候变化而建模的。考虑到IPCC在其第六次报告中提出的新的气候情景(SSP1,SSP2和SSP5),预测了未来的模型(2030和2050)。我们的发现揭示了哥伦比亚太平洋沿岸的地区,尤其是纳里尼奥,考卡,考卡山谷南部,还有乔科,这些双壳类动物具有很高的环境适应性。然而,2050年的预测,特别是在悲观的SSP5情景下,表明气候变化的潜在不利影响。到2030年和2050年,该物种可能会更倾向于哥伦比亚太平洋沿岸的西南分布。在某些地区,双壳类动物和红树林之间可能会发生气候引起的时空错配。这些见解对于这些物种的有效保护和管理策略至关重要。
The mangrove bivalves, Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis, are pivotal for the Colombian Pacific coast mangrove ecosystems and economies. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of these bivalves is modeled considering climate change. The future models (2030 and 2050) were projected considering the new climate scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) proposed by the IPCC in its sixth report. Our findings reveal areas in the Colombian Pacific coast, notably Nariño, Cauca, southern Valle del Cauca, and Chocó, with high environmental suitability for these bivalves. However, the 2050 projections, especially under the pessimistic SSP5 scenario, indicate potential adverse impacts from climate change. By 2030 and 2050, the species might lean more toward a southwesterly distribution in the Colombian Pacific coast. Climate-induced spatiotemporal mismatches could occur between the bivalves and the mangroves in some areas. These insights are crucial for effective conservation and management strategies for these species.