BACKGROUND: The global incidence target for the elimination of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs (PWID) is <2/100. In Norway, the hepatitis C epidemic is concentrated in PWID. Immigrants are the second most important risk group for chronic infection. We modelled the incidence of hepatitis C among active PWID, and the prevalence of chronic infection among active PWID, ex-PWID and immigrants in Norway until 2022.
METHODS: We built a stochastic compartmental model, which was informed using data from national data sources, literature, and expert opinion. We report median values with 95% credible intervals (CrI).
RESULTS: The model estimated 30 (95% Crl: 13-52) new infections among active PWID in 2022, or 0.37/100 (95% Crl: 0.17-0.65), down from a peak of 726 (95% Crl: 506-1,067) in 2000. Across all groups, the model estimated 3,202 (95% Crl: 1,273-6,601) chronically infected persons in 2022. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSIONS: Norway provides an example of the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination in a setting with a concentrated epidemic, high coverage of harm reduction services and no treatment restrictions. Continued momentum is needed to further reduce the transmission and burden of hepatitis C in Norway.

In trials of infectious disease interventions, rare outcomes and unpredictable spatiotemporal variation can introduce bias, reduce statistical power, and prevent conclusive inferences. Spillover effects can complicate inference if individual randomization is used to gain efficiency. Ring trials are a type of cluster-randomized trial that may increase efficiency and minimize bias, particularly in emergency and elimination settings with strong clustering of infection. They can be used to evaluate ring interventions, which are delivered to individuals in proximity to or contact with index cases. We conducted a systematic review of ring trials, compare them with other trial designs for evaluating ring interventions, and describe strengths and weaknesses of each design. Of 849 articles and 322 protocols screened, we identified 26 ring trials, 15 cluster-randomized trials, 5 trials that randomized households or individuals within rings, and 1 individually randomized trial. The most common interventions were postexposure prophylaxis (n = 23) and focal mass drug administration and screening and treatment (n = 7). Ring trials require robust surveillance systems and contact tracing for directly transmitted diseases. For rare diseases with strong spatiotemporal clustering, they may have higher efficiency and internal validity than cluster-randomized designs, in part because they ensure that no clusters are excluded from analysis due to zero cluster incidence. Though more research is needed to compare them with other types of trials, ring trials hold promise as a design that can increase trial speed and efficiency while reducing bias.

Malaria elimination has been a recurring policy goal in Solomon Islands and has historically succeeded in attracting substantial donor support. Drawing on literature review and key informant interviews, we examine the influence of foreign aid on malaria control and elimination efforts in Solomon Islands between 2002 and 2016, as a unique case study of an Asia-Pacific country with high malaria burden and high donor funding. While aid appears to have contributed to reduced malaria prevalence, the ways in which aid was delivered in the short term had health systems impacts with implications for the elimination agenda. Key areas that will be critical to the future pursuit of malaria elimination in Solomon Islands include: integration of the vertical malaria program, while strengthening provincial-level service delivery; maximising incentives of performance-based financing modalities; and policy alignment between donors and domestic actors. We conclude by discussing principles exemplified in the case study of broader relevance to malaria-endemic countries.

In Brazil, malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax presents control challenges due to several reasons, among them the increasing possibility of failure of P. vivax treatment due to chloroquine-resistance (CQR). Despite limited reports of CQR, more extensive studies on the actual magnitude of resistance are still needed. Short-time recurrences of malaria cases were analyzed in different transmission scenarios over three years (2005, 2010, and 2015), selected according to malaria incidence. Multilevel models (binomial) were used to evaluate association of short-time recurrences with variables such as age. The zero-inflated Poisson scan model (scanZIP) was used to detect spatial clusters of recurrences up to 28 days. Recurrences compose less than 5% of overall infection, being more frequent in the age group under four years. Recurrences slightly increased incidence. No fixed clusters were detected throughout the period, although there are clustering sites, spatially varying over the years. This is the most extensive analysis of short-time recurrences worldwide which addresses the occurrence of P. vivax CQR. As an important step forward in malaria elimination, policymakers should focus their efforts on young children, with an eventual shift in the first line of malaria treatment to P. vivax.

Introduction: Novel interventions are needed to accelerate malaria elimination, especially in areas where asymptomatic parasitemia is common, and where transmission generally occurs outside of village-based settings. Testing of community members linked to a person with clinical illness (reactive case detection, RACD) has not shown effectiveness in prior studies due to the limited sensitivity of current point-of-care tests. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of active case finding in village-based and forested-based settings using novel high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests in Lao People\'s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Methods and analysis: This study is a cluster-randomized split-plot design trial. The interventions include village-based mass test and treat (MTAT), focal test and treat in high-risk populations (FTAT), and the combination of these approaches, using high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDTs) to asses P. falciparum infection status. Within four districts in Champasak province, Lao PDR fourteen health center-catchment areas will be randomized to either FTAT or control; and within these HCCAs, 56 villages will be randomized to either MTAT or control. In intervention areas, FTAT will be conducted by community-based peer navigators on a routine basis, and three separate rounds of MTAT are planned. The primary study outcome will be PCR-based Plasmodium falciparum prevalence after one year of implementation. Secondary outcomes include malaria incidence; interventional coverage; operational feasibility and acceptability; and cost and cost- effectiveness. Ethics and dissemination: Findings will be reported on clinicaltrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and through stakeholder meetings with Ministry of Health and community leaders in Lao PDR and throughout the Greater Mekong Subregion. Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03783299 (21/12/2018).