METHODS: We built a stochastic compartmental model, which was informed using data from national data sources, literature, and expert opinion. We report median values with 95% credible intervals (CrI).
RESULTS: The model estimated 30 (95% Crl: 13-52) new infections among active PWID in 2022, or 0.37/100 (95% Crl: 0.17-0.65), down from a peak of 726 (95% Crl: 506-1,067) in 2000. Across all groups, the model estimated 3,202 (95% Crl: 1,273-6,601) chronically infected persons in 2022. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSIONS: Norway provides an example of the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination in a setting with a concentrated epidemic, high coverage of harm reduction services and no treatment restrictions. Continued momentum is needed to further reduce the transmission and burden of hepatitis C in Norway.
方法:我们建立了一个随机隔室模型,使用来自国家数据源的数据,文学,和专家意见。我们报告了95%可信区间(CrI)的中值。
结果:该模型估计2022年活跃PWID中有30个(95%Crl:13-52)新感染,即0.37/100(95%Crl:0.17-0.65),从2000年的726(95%Crl:506-1067)的峰值下降。在所有团体中,该模型估计了2022年3,202名(95%Crl:1,273-6,601)慢性感染者。敏感性分析结果稳健。
结论:挪威提供了在集中流行的环境中消除丙型肝炎的可行性的示例,高覆盖率的减害服务和无治疗限制。需要继续保持势头,以进一步减少挪威丙型肝炎的传播和负担。