Abstract：
BACKGROUND: The global incidence target for the elimination of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs (PWID) is <2/100. In Norway, the hepatitis C epidemic is concentrated in PWID. Immigrants are the second most important risk group for chronic infection. We modelled the incidence of hepatitis C among active PWID, and the prevalence of chronic infection among active PWID, ex-PWID and immigrants in Norway until 2022.
METHODS: We built a stochastic compartmental model, which was informed using data from national data sources, literature, and expert opinion. We report median values with 95% credible intervals (CrI).
RESULTS: The model estimated 30 (95% Crl: 13-52) new infections among active PWID in 2022, or 0.37/100 (95% Crl: 0.17-0.65), down from a peak of 726 (95% Crl: 506-1,067) in 2000. Across all groups, the model estimated 3,202 (95% Crl: 1,273-6,601) chronically infected persons in 2022. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSIONS: Norway provides an example of the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination in a setting with a concentrated epidemic, high coverage of harm reduction services and no treatment restrictions. Continued momentum is needed to further reduce the transmission and burden of hepatitis C in Norway.
METHODS: We built a stochastic compartmental model, which was informed using data from national data sources, literature, and expert opinion. We report median values with 95% credible intervals (CrI).
RESULTS: The model estimated 30 (95% Crl: 13-52) new infections among active PWID in 2022, or 0.37/100 (95% Crl: 0.17-0.65), down from a peak of 726 (95% Crl: 506-1,067) in 2000. Across all groups, the model estimated 3,202 (95% Crl: 1,273-6,601) chronically infected persons in 2022. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSIONS: Norway provides an example of the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination in a setting with a concentrated epidemic, high coverage of harm reduction services and no treatment restrictions. Continued momentum is needed to further reduce the transmission and burden of hepatitis C in Norway.
摘要：
背景：在注射毒品（PWID）人群中消除丙型肝炎的全球发病率目标是<2/100。在挪威,丙型肝炎的流行集中在PWID。移民是慢性感染的第二重要风险群体。我们模拟了活跃PWID中丙型肝炎的发病率，以及慢性感染在活跃的PWID中的患病率，前PWID和挪威的移民，直到2022年。
方法：我们建立了一个随机隔室模型，使用来自国家数据源的数据，文学,和专家意见。我们报告了95%可信区间(CrI)的中值。
结果：该模型估计2022年活跃PWID中有30个（95％Crl：13-52）新感染，即0.37/100（95％Crl：0.17-0.65），从2000年的726（95%Crl：506-1067）的峰值下降。在所有团体中，该模型估计了2022年3,202名(95%Crl:1,273-6,601)慢性感染者。敏感性分析结果稳健。
结论：挪威提供了在集中流行的环境中消除丙型肝炎的可行性的示例，高覆盖率的减害服务和无治疗限制。需要继续保持势头，以进一步减少挪威丙型肝炎的传播和负担。
方法：我们建立了一个随机隔室模型，使用来自国家数据源的数据，文学,和专家意见。我们报告了95%可信区间(CrI)的中值。
结果：该模型估计2022年活跃PWID中有30个（95％Crl：13-52）新感染，即0.37/100（95％Crl：0.17-0.65），从2000年的726（95%Crl：506-1067）的峰值下降。在所有团体中，该模型估计了2022年3,202名(95%Crl:1,273-6,601)慢性感染者。敏感性分析结果稳健。
结论：挪威提供了在集中流行的环境中消除丙型肝炎的可行性的示例，高覆盖率的减害服务和无治疗限制。需要继续保持势头，以进一步减少挪威丙型肝炎的传播和负担。
