Counterfactual analysis

反事实分析
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: Adverse childhood experience is thought to be associated with risk of coronary heart disease, but it is not clear which experiences are cardiotoxic, and whether risk increases with the accumulation of adverse childhood experiences.
    UNASSIGNED: Participants were 5149 adults (72.6% men) in the Whitehall II cohort study. Parental death was recorded at phase 1 (median age in years 44.3), and 13 other adverse childhood experiences at phase 5 (55.3). We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with person-time from phase 5 to examine associations of adverse childhood experiences with incident coronary heart disease. We predicted hazard ratios according to count of the experiences, and examined dose-response effect. We finally estimated reduction of coronary heart disease in a hypothetical scenario, the absence of adverse childhood experiences.
    UNASSIGNED: Among study participants, 62.9% had at least one adversity, with \"financial problems\" having the highest prevalence (26.1%). There were 509 first episodes of coronary heart disease during an average 12.9 years follow-up. Among 14 adverse childhood experiences in a multiply adjusted model, \"parental unemployment\" showed the highest hazard of coronary heart disease incidence (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.53; 1.16 to 2.02). No dose-response effect was observed (constant for proportionality in hazard ratio: 1.05, 0.99 to 1.11). Based on the estimates of final model, in the absence of childhood adversities, we estimated a 6.0% reduction in coronary heart disease (0.94; 0.87 to 1.01), but the confidence interval includes one.
    UNASSIGNED: Although individual adverse childhood experiences show some association with coronary heart disease, there is no clear relationship with the number of adverse experiences. Further research is required to quantify effects of multiple and combinations of adverse childhood experiences considering timing, duration, and severity.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    This study has two objectives. First, to analyse the respective roles of parental BMI and the wider environment on children\'s BMI across childhood, using a counterfactual analysis. Second, to determine if the correlations between parents and offspring BMI are partly environmental. We used data on 4437 girls and 4337 boys born in 2000-2001 in the UK and included in the Millennium Cohort Study. Children\'s BMI was measured at ages 3years, 5years, 7years, and 11years. We described the environment using social class and behaviours within the family. At the age of 3, there was no link between the environment and children\'s BMI. In contrast, there was a clear link between the environment and BMI slopes between 3 and 11years of age. At the age of 11, we calculated that if all children had the most favourable environment, mean BMI would be reduced by 0.91kg/m(2) (95% CI: 0.57-1.26) for boys and by 1.65kg/m(2) (95% CI: 1.28-2.02) for girls. Associations between parents\' and offspring BMI remained unchanged after adjustment for environmental variables. Conversely, the link between the environment and children\'s BMI is partly reduced after adjustment for parental BMI. This confirms that parental BMI is partly a broad proxy of the environment. We highlighted that if every child\'s environment was at its most favourable, the mean BMI would be significantly reduced. Thus, the recent rise is likely to be reversible.
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