背景:2017年8月,缅甸武装部队,Tatmadaw,对若开邦北部数百个罗兴亚占多数的村庄发动了精心策划的袭击。这项研究旨在验证Tatmadaw以前对该地区罗兴亚人的暴力行为报告的一致性,边防警察,和若开邦村民在2017年夏末和初秋。
方法:内部验证数据来自三臂研究。在外部三角测量中分析的数据是通过文献综述获得的,公开可用的调查和访谈。两组数据都记录了2017年夏末和初秋在若开邦北部针对罗兴亚人的暴力事件。对五个暴力指标的一致性进行了评估:纵火,乱葬坑的存在,性暴力和人身伤害的报告,以及人类死亡,在若开邦北部的611个地区。进行了进一步分析,以衡量按区域设置和按指标跨区域设置的报告的一致性。
结果:总体而言,对94个小村庄的内部验证发现,这些地区中有98%在5个指标中的至少4个指标上是一致的(80%+一致性)。纵火和人类受伤报告是各地最一致的指标(100%和99%的一致性,分别)和性暴力是最不一致的指标,84%的参与地区在定性和定量数据之间表现出一致的性暴力报告。同样,对57个地点的外部验证发现,57个地点中有50个(88%)在指标间是一致的.纵火是来源最一致的(96%),而不同地点的来源协议在性暴力报告中最不一致(58%)。
结论:缅甸政府否认参与了2017年对若开邦北部罗兴亚社区的袭击,并声称有关暴力和破坏的报道被夸大了。然而,来自同一地区的多个来源的一致报告清楚地强调了所记录证据的真实性,无论是由调查小组和罗兴亚暴力幸存者叙述。我们希望这种对现有数据的分类和比较,随着这项研究对其一致性的评估,将有助于正在进行的问责工作。
BACKGROUND: In August 2017, Myanmar\'s Armed Forces, the Tatmadaw, launched an orchestrated attack on hundreds of Rohingya-majority villages in northern Rakhine state. This study seeks to validate the
consistency of previous
reports of violence against the Rohingya people in the region carried out by the Tatmadaw, Border Guard Police, and Rakhine villagers in the late summer and early fall of 2017.
METHODS: Internal validation data is from a three-armed study. Data analyzed in the external triangulation was sourced through a literature review of known, publicly available surveys and interviews. Both sets of data documented instances of violence against the Rohingya people in northern Rakhine state during the late summer and early fall of 2017.
Consistency was evaluated across five indicators of violence: arson, presence of mass graves,
reports of sexual violence and human injuries, as well as human fatalities, across 611 locales in northern Rakhine state. Further analysis was conducted to measure
consistency of
reports by locale and across locales by indicator.
RESULTS: Overall, an internal validation of 94 hamlets found that 98% of these locales were consistent across at least four of the five indicators (80% +
consistency). Arson and reports of human injuries were the most consistent indicators across locales (100% and 99%
consistency, respectively) and sexual violence was the least consistent indicator, with 84% of participating locales exhibiting consistent reports of sexual violence between the qualitative and quantitative data. Similarly, an external validation of 57 locations found that 50 of the 57 locations (88%) were consistent across indicators. Arson was the most consistent across sources (96%), whereas source agreement across locations was the least consistent for reports of sexual violence (58%).
CONCLUSIONS: The government of Myanmar has denied involvement in the 2017 attacks on Rohingya communities in northern Rakhine state and purports that reports of the violence and destruction are overstated. However, consistent reporting from multiple sources on the same locales clearly underscores the veracity of the evidence documented, both by investigative groups and as recounted by Rohingya survivors of violence. It is our hope that this cataloging and comparison of available data, along with this study\'s assessment of its consistency, will aid ongoing accountability efforts.