背景：确定并建立关于特发性首次发作后慢性疼痛发展的潜在预后因素的共识，非创伤性颈部疼痛.
方法：本研究使用两种共识组方法：改良标称组（m-NGT）和德尔菲技术。
方法：m-NGT的目标是获得并分类一系列潜在的可改变的预后因素。这些因素在两轮德尔菲调查中被提交给多学科小组，该项目于2018年11月至2020年1月期间进行。参与者被问及确定的因素是否具有预后价值，这些因素是否可以修改，以及如何在临床实践中衡量这些因素。共识是先验定义为参与者之间70％的共识。
结果：在专家会议期间，使用改进的NGT确定了84个因素并将其分为7个类别。工作组将列表减少到47个因素，并将它们分为12个类别。在这些因素中,26例被发现是颈部疼痛慢性化的潜在预后(>70%一致)。根据两轮Delphi调查，物理治疗师发现这26个因素中有21个可能可以修改。
结论：根据专家会议（m-NGT）和两轮德尔菲调查，我们的研究记录了26个预后因素的共识(>70%).这26个因素中有21个是可修改的，大多数因素都是心理上的。
BACKGROUND: Identify and establish
consensus regarding potential prognostic factors for the development of chronic pain after a first episode of idiopathic, non-traumatic neck pain.
METHODS: This study used two
consensus group methods: a modified Nominal Group (m-NGT) and a Delphi Technique.
METHODS: The goal of the m-NGT was to obtain and categorize a list of potential modifiable prognostic factors. These factors were presented to a multidisciplinary panel in a two-round Delphi survey, which was conducted between November 2018 and January 2020. The participants were asked whether factors identified are of prognostic value, whether these factors are modifiable, and how to measure these factors in clinical practice.
Consensus was a priori defined as 70% agreement among participants.
RESULTS: Eighty-four factors were identified and grouped into seven categories during the expert meeting using the modified NGT. A workgroup reduced the list to 47 factors and grouped them into 12 categories. Of these factors, 26 were found to be potentially prognostic for chronification of neck pain (> 70% agreement). Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be potentially modifiable by physiotherapists based on a two-round Delphi survey.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on an expert meeting (m-NGT) and a two-round Delphi survey, our study documents
consensus (> 70%) on 26 prognostic factors. Twenty-one out of these 26 factors were found to be modifiable, and most factors were psychological in nature.
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