非洲猪瘟(ASF)是由ASF病毒(ASFV)引起的高度传染性疾病,其在家猪中具有高致死率,导致高社会经济影响。越南的生猪业务最近首次受到ASF的影响。因此,这项研究旨在开发一种疾病动态模型,以解释ASFV如何在越南猪种群中传播,并提出预防未来爆发所需的保护性疫苗覆盖率。疫情数据是从越南第一波ASF疫情中的十个私人小规模农场收集的。使用三种方法估计基本繁殖数(R0),包括指数增长法,最大似然法,和攻击率方法。平均R0值估计为1.49(95CI:1.05-2.21),1.58(95CI:0.92-2.56),和1.46(95CI:1.38-1.57),分别。根据最坏的情况,猪群中的所有猪都将在50天内被感染并被移走。我们建议,一旦获得商业批准的ASF疫苗,就在每个农场接种至少80%的猪。然而,仍然鼓励提高小规模农场的生物安全水平,以防止病毒的引入。
African swine fever (
ASF) is a highly contagious disease that is caused by the
ASF virus (ASFV) with a high fatality rate in domestic pigs resulting in a high socio-economic impact. The pig business in Vietnam was recently affected by
ASF for the first time. This study thus aimed to develop a disease dynamic model to explain how ASFV spreads in Vietnamese pig populations and suggest a protective vaccine coverage level required to prevent future outbreaks. The outbreak data were collected from ten private small-scale farms within the first wave of
ASF outbreaks in Vietnam. Three methods were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), including the exponential growth method, maximum likelihood method, and attack rate method. The average R0 values were estimated at 1.49 (95%CI: 1.05-2.21), 1.58 (95%CI: 0.92-2.56), and 1.46 (95%CI: 1.38-1.57), respectively. Based on the worst-
case scenario, all pigs in a herd would be infected and removed within 50 days. We suggest vaccinating at least 80% of pigs on each farm once a commercially approved
ASF vaccine is available. However, an improvement in biosecurity levels in small-scale farms is still greatly encouraged to prevent the introduction of the virus.