PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
UNASSIGNED: There is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts.
UNASSIGNED: A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.
UNASSIGNED: The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
UNASSIGNED: Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel\'s rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
UNASSIGNED: A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.
UNASSIGNED: The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
UNASSIGNED: Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel\'s rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.
摘要：
■需要统计方法来审查冲突中的平民伤亡情况，评估战争行为影响平民和违反战争法的程度。采用流行病学方法，这项研究介绍了，开发,并采用了一种新颖的方法来调查冲突中平民与战斗人员的死亡率。
■确定性数学模型，按年龄和性别构成，旨在描述与冲突有关的战斗人员和平民死亡的过程。该模型是使用来自以色列-加沙不同冲突的人口和冲突相关数据进行校准的。量化对平民的影响程度，并确定他们是否是冲突的主要焦点，统计指标，杀害平民的指数，以及相关的标准，是设计出来的。
■模型估计的加沙战斗人员死亡比例为62.1％（95％不确定区间（UI）：57.6-66.2％），51.1%（95%UI：47.1-54.9%），在2008-2009年，2014年和2023年以色列-加沙冲突中占12.7％（95％UI：9.7-15.4％），分别。杀害平民的指数为0.61(95%UI:0.51-0.74),0.96（95%UI：0.82-1.12），和7.01（95%UI：5.50-9.29）在2008-2009年、2014年和2023年的冲突，分别。这些指数值表明，在2008-2009年和2014年的冲突中，平民是战争的对象，但是战斗人员仍然被确定为冲突的主要焦点。在2023年的冲突中,有充分的证据表明平民是战争的对象，平民被确定为冲突的主要焦点。
■研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，以色列的交战规则逐渐发生变化，平民伤亡的接受度越来越高。2023年的冲突与之前的以色列-加沙冲突不同，平民被确定为冲突的主要焦点。
■确定性数学模型，按年龄和性别构成，旨在描述与冲突有关的战斗人员和平民死亡的过程。该模型是使用来自以色列-加沙不同冲突的人口和冲突相关数据进行校准的。量化对平民的影响程度，并确定他们是否是冲突的主要焦点，统计指标，杀害平民的指数，以及相关的标准，是设计出来的。
■模型估计的加沙战斗人员死亡比例为62.1％（95％不确定区间（UI）：57.6-66.2％），51.1%（95%UI：47.1-54.9%），在2008-2009年，2014年和2023年以色列-加沙冲突中占12.7％（95％UI：9.7-15.4％），分别。杀害平民的指数为0.61(95%UI:0.51-0.74),0.96（95%UI：0.82-1.12），和7.01（95%UI：5.50-9.29）在2008-2009年、2014年和2023年的冲突，分别。这些指数值表明，在2008-2009年和2014年的冲突中，平民是战争的对象，但是战斗人员仍然被确定为冲突的主要焦点。在2023年的冲突中,有充分的证据表明平民是战争的对象，平民被确定为冲突的主要焦点。
■研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，以色列的交战规则逐渐发生变化，平民伤亡的接受度越来越高。2023年的冲突与之前的以色列-加沙冲突不同，平民被确定为冲突的主要焦点。
