PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide the basic data needed to estimate future urologist supply and demand by applying various statistical models related to healthcare utilization.
METHODS: Data from multiple sources, including the Yearbook of Health and Welfare Statistics, Korean Hospital Association, Korean Medical Association, and the Korean Urological Association, were used for supply estimation. Demand estimation incorporated data on both clinical and non-clinical urologists, along with future population estimates. In-and-out moves and demographic methods were employed for supply estimation, while the Bureau of Health Professions model was utilized for demand estimation. Supply estimation assumptions included fixed resident quotas, age-specific death rates, migration rates, and retirement age considerations. Demand estimation assumptions included combining clinical and nonclinical urologist demands, adjusting population size for age-related healthcare usage variations. Urologist productivity was determined by adjusting productivity levels to 100%, 90%, and 80% of the base year based on actual clinical practice volumes.
RESULTS: Estimations of both demand and supply consistently indicate an oversupply of urologists until 2025, followed by an expected shortage by 2035 owing to increased deaths and retirements attributed to the aging urologist population. This shortage becomes more pronounced when employing more reliable models, such as logit or ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), underscoring the growing need for urologists in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: All estimation models estimated an oversupply of urologists until 2025, transitioning to a deficit due to reduced supply thereafter. However, considering potential unaccounted factors, greater effort is needed for accurate predictions and corresponding measures.
METHODS: Data from multiple sources, including the Yearbook of Health and Welfare Statistics, Korean Hospital Association, Korean Medical Association, and the Korean Urological Association, were used for supply estimation. Demand estimation incorporated data on both clinical and non-clinical urologists, along with future population estimates. In-and-out moves and demographic methods were employed for supply estimation, while the Bureau of Health Professions model was utilized for demand estimation. Supply estimation assumptions included fixed resident quotas, age-specific death rates, migration rates, and retirement age considerations. Demand estimation assumptions included combining clinical and nonclinical urologist demands, adjusting population size for age-related healthcare usage variations. Urologist productivity was determined by adjusting productivity levels to 100%, 90%, and 80% of the base year based on actual clinical practice volumes.
RESULTS: Estimations of both demand and supply consistently indicate an oversupply of urologists until 2025, followed by an expected shortage by 2035 owing to increased deaths and retirements attributed to the aging urologist population. This shortage becomes more pronounced when employing more reliable models, such as logit or ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average), underscoring the growing need for urologists in the future.
CONCLUSIONS: All estimation models estimated an oversupply of urologists until 2025, transitioning to a deficit due to reduced supply thereafter. However, considering potential unaccounted factors, greater effort is needed for accurate predictions and corresponding measures.
摘要：
目的：本研究旨在通过应用与医疗保健利用相关的各种统计模型，提供估算未来泌尿科医生供需所需的基础数据。
方法：来自多个来源的数据，包括《卫生和福利统计年鉴》，韩国医院协会,韩国医学会,和韩国泌尿外科协会，用于供应估算。需求估计纳入了临床和非临床泌尿科医师的数据，以及未来的人口估计。采用进出移动和人口统计学方法进行供应估计，而卫生局职业模型被用于需求估计。供应估计假设包括固定居民配额，特定年龄的死亡率，迁移率，和退休年龄的考虑。需求估计假设包括结合临床和非临床泌尿科医生的需求，根据年龄相关的医疗保健使用变化调整人口规模。泌尿科医生的生产率是通过将生产率水平调整到100%来确定的，90%,以及基于实际临床实践量的基准年的80%。
结果：对需求和供应的估计一致表明，到2025年，泌尿科医生供过于求，随后由于泌尿科医生老龄化导致死亡和退休增加，预计到2035年将出现短缺。当采用更可靠的模型时，这种短缺变得更加明显，如Logit或ARIMA(自回归积分移动平均线)，强调了未来对泌尿科医生日益增长的需求。
结论：所有估计模型都估计到2025年泌尿科医生供过于求，此后由于供应减少而过渡到赤字。然而,考虑到潜在的下落不明因素，需要付出更大的努力来进行准确的预测和相应的措施。
方法：来自多个来源的数据，包括《卫生和福利统计年鉴》，韩国医院协会,韩国医学会,和韩国泌尿外科协会，用于供应估算。需求估计纳入了临床和非临床泌尿科医师的数据，以及未来的人口估计。采用进出移动和人口统计学方法进行供应估计，而卫生局职业模型被用于需求估计。供应估计假设包括固定居民配额，特定年龄的死亡率，迁移率，和退休年龄的考虑。需求估计假设包括结合临床和非临床泌尿科医生的需求，根据年龄相关的医疗保健使用变化调整人口规模。泌尿科医生的生产率是通过将生产率水平调整到100%来确定的，90%,以及基于实际临床实践量的基准年的80%。
结果：对需求和供应的估计一致表明，到2025年，泌尿科医生供过于求，随后由于泌尿科医生老龄化导致死亡和退休增加，预计到2035年将出现短缺。当采用更可靠的模型时，这种短缺变得更加明显，如Logit或ARIMA(自回归积分移动平均线)，强调了未来对泌尿科医生日益增长的需求。
结论：所有估计模型都估计到2025年泌尿科医生供过于求，此后由于供应减少而过渡到赤字。然而,考虑到潜在的下落不明因素，需要付出更大的努力来进行准确的预测和相应的措施。
