PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Salt-sensitive hypertension is common among individuals with essential hypertension, and the prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) has increased. However, data from early identification of the risk of developing LVH in young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension are lacking. Thus, the present study aimed to design a nomogram for predicting the risk of developing LVH in young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension. A retrospective analysis of 580 patients with salt-sensitive hypertension was conducted. The training set consisted of 70% (n = 406) of the patients, while the validation set consisted of the remaining 30% (n = 174). Based on multivariate analysis of the training set, predictors for LVH were extracted to develop a nomogram. Discrimination curves, calibration curves, and clinical utility were employed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The final simplified nomogram model included age, sex, office systolic blood pressure, duration of hypertension, abdominal obesity, triglyceride-glucose index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). In the training set, the model demonstrated moderate discrimination, as indicated by an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.863 (95% confidence interval: 0.831-0.894). The calibration curve exhibited good agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities of LVH in the training set. Additionally, the validation set further confirmed the reliability of the prediction nomogram. In conclusions, the simplified nomogram, which consists of seven routine clinical variables, has shown good performance and clinical utility in identifying young adults with salt-sensitive hypertension who are at high risk of LVH at an early stage.
摘要：
盐敏感性高血压在原发性高血压患者中很常见，左心室肥厚（LVH）的患病率增加。然而,缺乏早期识别患有盐敏感性高血压的年轻成年人发生LVH的风险的数据.因此，本研究旨在设计一个列线图,用于预测患有盐敏感性高血压的年轻成年人发生LVH的风险.方法对580例盐敏感性高血压患者进行回顾性分析。训练集由70%(n=406)的患者组成，而验证集由剩余的30%(n=174)组成。基于对训练集的多变量分析，我们提取了LVH的预测因子以建立列线图.辨别曲线,校正曲线,和临床效用被用来评估列线图的预测性能。最终的简化列线图模型包括年龄，性别,办公室收缩压,高血压的持续时间，腹部肥胖，甘油三酯-葡萄糖指数，和估计的肾小球滤过率(eGFR)。在训练集中，该模型表现出适度的歧视，如受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积为0.863（95％置信区间：0.831-0.894）所示。校准曲线在训练集中LVH的预测概率和实际概率之间表现出良好的一致性。此外,验证集进一步证实了预测列线图的可靠性.在结论中，简化的列线图，由七个常规临床变量组成，在识别早期处于LVH高风险的盐敏感性高血压年轻人方面显示出良好的性能和临床实用性。
