METHODS: A total of 1121 patients from the Liver Cancer Clin-Bio Databank of Anhui Hepatobiliary Surgery Union between January 2017 and December 2022 were included in this study (673 in the training cohort and 448 in the validation cohort): among them, 458 with BTC, 178 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 23 with combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma, and 462 with nontumor patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy and clinical usefulness.
RESULTS: ROC curves obtained by combining CA50, CA19-9, and AFP showed that the AUC value of the diagnostic MODEL 1 was 0.885 (95% CI 0.856-0.885, specificity 70.3%, and sensitivity 84.0%) in the training cohort and 0.879 (0.841-0.917, 76.7%, and 84.3%) in the validation cohort. In addition, comparing iCCA and HCC (235 in the training cohort, 157 in the validation cohort), the AUC values of the diagnostic MODEL 2 were 0.893 (95% CI 0.853-0.933, specificity 96%, and sensitivity 68.6%) in the training cohort and 0.872 (95% CI 0.818-0.927, 94.2%, and 64.6%) in the validation cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: The model combining CA50, CA19-9, and AFP not only has good diagnostic value for BTC but also has good diagnostic value for distinguishing iCCA and HCC.
方法:本研究纳入2017年1月至2022年12月安徽省肝胆外科联盟肝癌Clin-Bio数据库的1121例患者(训练队列673例,验证队列448例):458与BTC,178例肝细胞癌(HCC),23合并肝细胞-胆管癌,462例非肿瘤患者。应用接收人工作特点(ROC)曲线和判定曲线剖析(DCA)评价诊断效能和临床有用性。
结果:结合CA50,CA19-9和AFP获得的ROC曲线显示诊断模型1的AUC值为0.885(95%CI0.856-0.885,特异性70.3%,和敏感性84.0%)在训练队列中和0.879(0.841-0.917,76.7%,和84.3%)在验证队列中。此外,比较iCCA和HCC(训练队列中的235,157在验证队列中),诊断模型2的AUC值为0.893(95%CI0.853-0.933,特异性96%,和敏感性68.6%)在训练队列中和0.872(95%CI0.818-0.927,94.2%,和64.6%)在验证队列中。
结论:结合CA50、CA19-9和AFP的模型不仅对BTC具有良好的诊断价值,而且对区分iCCA和HCC也具有良好的诊断价值。