Abstract：
Analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) change and its drivers and impacts in the biodiversity hotspot of Bale Mountain\'s socio-ecological system is crucial for formulating plausible policies and strategies that can enhance sustainable development. The study aimed to analyze spatio-temporal LULC changes and their trends, extents, drives, and impacts over the last 48 years in the Bale Mountain social-ecological system. Landsat imagery data from the years 1973, 1986, 1996, 2014, and 2021 together with qualitative data were used. LULC classification scheme employed a supervised classification method with the application of the maximum likelihood algorithm technique. In the period between 1973 and 2021, agriculture, bare land, and settlement showed areal increment by 153.13%, 295.57%, and 49.03% with the corresponding increased annual rate of 1.93%, 2.86%, and 0.83%, respectively. On the contrary, forest, wood land, bushland, grass land, and water body decreased by 29.97%, 1.36%, 28.16%, 8.63%, and 84.36% during the study period, respectively. During the period, major LULC change dynamics were also observed; the majority of woodland was converted to agriculture (757.8 km2) and grassland (531.3 km2); and forests were converted to other LULC classes, namely woodland (766.5 km2), agriculture (706.1 km2), grassland (34.6 km2), bushland (31.9 km2), settlement (20.5 km2), and bare land (14.3 km2). LULC changes were caused by the expansion of agriculture, settlement, overgrazing, infrastructure development, and fire that were driven by population growth and climate change, and supplemented by inadequate policy and institutional factors. Social and environmental importance and values of land uses and land covers in the study area necessitate further assessment of potential natural resources\' user groups and valuation of ecosystem services in the study area. Hence, we suggest the identification of potential natural resource-based user groups, and assessment of the influence of LULC changes on ecosystem services in Bale Mountains Eco Region (BMER) for the sustainable use and managements of land resources.
摘要：
分析贝尔山社会生态系统生物多样性热点地区的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化及其驱动因素和影响，对于制定合理的政策和战略以促进可持续发展至关重要。该研究旨在分析LULC的时空变化及其趋势，范围,驱动器,以及过去48年对贝尔山社会生态系统的影响。使用了1973年，1986年，1996年，2014年和2021年的Landsat图像数据以及定性数据。LULC分类方案采用监督分类方法，并应用最大似然算法技术。在1973年至2021年期间，农业，裸露的土地，沉降面积增长153.13%，295.57%,和49.03%，相应的年增长率为1.93%，2.86%,和0.83%，分别。相反,森林,林地,灌木丛,草地,水体减少29.97%，1.36%，28.16%,8.63%，研究期间为84.36%，分别。在此期间,还观察到了主要的LULC变化动态；大部分林地被转换为农业（757.8km2）和草地（531.3km2）；森林被转换为其他LULC类别，即林地(766.5平方公里)，农业（706.1平方公里），草地(34.6km2),灌木丛(31.9平方公里)，沉降（20.5km2），和裸露土地（14.3km2）。LULC的变化是由农业扩张引起的，结算，过度放牧,基础设施建设,以及由人口增长和气候变化驱动的火灾，并辅之以不充分的政策和体制因素。研究区域土地使用和土地覆盖的社会和环境重要性以及价值需要进一步评估研究区域的潜在自然资源使用者群体和生态系统服务评估。因此，我们建议识别潜在的基于自然资源的用户群体，并评估了LULC变化对贝尔山脉生态区（BMER）的生态系统服务的影响，以实现土地资源的可持续利用和管理。
