Abstract：
In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the region\'s socio-economic development. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated in recent years by increasing drought severity. Recognizing the escalating severity of droughts, the study offers a novel contribution by conducting a comprehensive analysis of surface water resource distribution in Lam Dong province, focusing on assessing water demand for agricultural production, a crucial factor in ensuring sustainable crop growth. Two scenarios, Current-2020 (SC1) and Climate Change-2025 (SC2), are simulated, with SC2 based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). These scenarios are integrated into the MIKE-NAM and MIKE-HYDRO basin models, allowing for a thorough assessment of the water balance of Lam Dong province. Furthermore, the study utilizes the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) to measure drought severity, revealing prevalent dry and moderately droughty conditions in highland districts with rainfall frequency ranging from 50 to 85%. Severe drought conditions occur with a rainfall frequency of 95%, indicating an increased frequency and geographic scope of severe droughts. Additionally, the study highlights that under abnormally dry conditions, water demand for the winter-spring crop is consistently met at 100%, decreasing to 85%, 80%, and less than 75% for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, respectively. These findings offer insights into future drought conditions in the Lam Dong province and their potential impact on irrigation capacity, crucial for adaptation strategies.
摘要：
在越南南部中部高地,干旱发生得更频繁，造成重大损害，影响该地区的社会经济发展。在旱季,河流,溪流,水库经常面临有限的水供应，近年来，干旱严重程度加剧了这种情况。认识到干旱的严重性，这项研究通过对林东地表水资源分布进行全面分析，提供了新的贡献，重点评估农业生产用水需求，确保作物可持续生长的关键因素。两种情况，当前-2020(SC1)和气候变化-2025(SC2)，是模拟的，SC2基于自然资源和环境部（MONRE）提供的气候变化和海平面上升情景。这些场景被集成到MIKE-NAM和MIKE-HYDRO盆地模型中，以便对林东的水平衡进行全面评估。此外，该研究利用Keetch-Byram干旱指数(KBDI)来衡量干旱严重程度，揭示了高地地区普遍的干旱和中度干旱条件，降雨频率为50％至85％。严重的干旱条件发生，降雨频率为95％，表明严重干旱的频率和地理范围增加。此外,该研究强调，在异常干燥的条件下，冬春作物的需水量始终满足100%，下降到85%，80%,中等比例低于75%，严重,极端干旱，分别。这些发现提供了有关林东省未来干旱状况及其对灌溉能力的潜在影响的见解，对适应战略至关重要。
