PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.
摘要：
野生鸟类与家禽的界面是高致病性禽流感（HPAI）病毒出现和传播的重要纽带。尽管最近HPAIH5N1Clade2.3.4.4b入侵北美，但鉴于其规模空前，需要采取应急响应和计划，缺乏现成的数据驱动模型。这里,我们为邻近的美国提供高分辨率的时空传播风险模型。考虑到病毒宿主生态学，我们纳入了每周物种级野生水禽(Anatidae)丰度和地方性低致病性禽流感病毒流行度指标,以及每种商品类型的家禽养殖场数量和两个空间尺度的相对生物安全风险:3公里和县级.溢出风险在水禽迁徙的年度周期中有所不同，并且由于家禽产量较高，某些地区全年表现出持续的风险。使用2022年至2023年HPAI家禽爆发的系统发育分析确定的野生鸟类引入事件进行验证表明模型表现强劲。我们方法的模块化特性有助于在不断变化的条件下建立更新的数据集，测试假设场景，或使用专有数据自定义结果。这项研究展示了一种自适应方法，用于开发模型，以在新爆发时提供准备和响应信息。病毒进化,和其他数据变得可用。
