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Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trend and spatial pattern of intimate partner rape reports against women in Northeast Brazil.
METHODS: Ecological time-series study and spatial analysis with secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2013 and 2022. Gross rape rates were calculated by type of intimate partner and by age group of the victim. Prais-Winsten regression was used to calculate the trend, and the global and local Moran indices were used for spatial analysis.
RESULTS: A total of 5,542 cases of intimate partner rape were reported. Spousal rates ranged from 0.34/100,000 women in 2013 to 0.51/100,000 in 2017, with greater increases between 2018 (1.04/100 thousand) and 2022 (1.28/100 thousand). There was an upward trend in the Northeast as a whole (APC=19.47; 95%CI 15.88-23.22) and in almost all states, except Paraíba and Sergipe. Cases perpetrated by boyfriends (APC=23.90; 95%CI 12.80-36.09) and among women aged 15 to 19 years (APC=22.63; 95%CI 4.18-44.35) showed the highest annual variation. A concentration of high rates was observed in several municipalities in the northwest of Ceará and southeast of Pernambuco.
CONCLUSIONS: The trend in intimate partner rape rates against women increased in the Northeast, especially among younger women and by boyfriends, with a greater agglomeration of notifications in Ceará and Pernambuco.
METHODS: Ecological time-series study and spatial analysis with secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System between 2013 and 2022. Gross rape rates were calculated by type of intimate partner and by age group of the victim. Prais-Winsten regression was used to calculate the trend, and the global and local Moran indices were used for spatial analysis.
RESULTS: A total of 5,542 cases of intimate partner rape were reported. Spousal rates ranged from 0.34/100,000 women in 2013 to 0.51/100,000 in 2017, with greater increases between 2018 (1.04/100 thousand) and 2022 (1.28/100 thousand). There was an upward trend in the Northeast as a whole (APC=19.47; 95%CI 15.88-23.22) and in almost all states, except Paraíba and Sergipe. Cases perpetrated by boyfriends (APC=23.90; 95%CI 12.80-36.09) and among women aged 15 to 19 years (APC=22.63; 95%CI 4.18-44.35) showed the highest annual variation. A concentration of high rates was observed in several municipalities in the northwest of Ceará and southeast of Pernambuco.
CONCLUSIONS: The trend in intimate partner rape rates against women increased in the Northeast, especially among younger women and by boyfriends, with a greater agglomeration of notifications in Ceará and Pernambuco.
摘要：
目的：分析巴西东北部针对妇女的亲密伴侣强奸报告的趋势和空间格局。
方法：生态时间序列研究和空间分析，具有2013年至2022年间来自应通报疾病信息系统的次级数据。总强奸率是按亲密伴侣的类型和受害者的年龄组计算的。Prais-Winsten回归用于计算趋势，并使用全球和本地Moran指数进行空间分析。
结果：共报告了5,542例亲密伴侣强奸。配偶率从2013年的0.34/100,000女性到2017年的0.51/100,000女性，2018年（1.04/10万）和2022年（1.28/10万）之间的增长更大。整个东北地区都有上升趋势（APC=19.47;95CI15.88-23.22），几乎所有州，除了Paraíba和Sergipe.男朋友（APC=23.90；95CI12.80-36.09）和15至19岁女性（APC=22.63；95CI4.18-44.35）的案件年变化最高。在塞阿拉州西北部和伯南布哥州东南部的几个城市中观察到了高利率的集中。
结论：东北地区对女性的亲密伴侣强奸率呈上升趋势，尤其是年轻女性和男朋友，在塞阿拉和伯南布哥州有更多的通知聚集。
方法：生态时间序列研究和空间分析，具有2013年至2022年间来自应通报疾病信息系统的次级数据。总强奸率是按亲密伴侣的类型和受害者的年龄组计算的。Prais-Winsten回归用于计算趋势，并使用全球和本地Moran指数进行空间分析。
结果：共报告了5,542例亲密伴侣强奸。配偶率从2013年的0.34/100,000女性到2017年的0.51/100,000女性，2018年（1.04/10万）和2022年（1.28/10万）之间的增长更大。整个东北地区都有上升趋势（APC=19.47;95CI15.88-23.22），几乎所有州，除了Paraíba和Sergipe.男朋友（APC=23.90；95CI12.80-36.09）和15至19岁女性（APC=22.63；95CI4.18-44.35）的案件年变化最高。在塞阿拉州西北部和伯南布哥州东南部的几个城市中观察到了高利率的集中。
结论：东北地区对女性的亲密伴侣强奸率呈上升趋势，尤其是年轻女性和男朋友，在塞阿拉和伯南布哥州有更多的通知聚集。
