Abstract：
China\'s dairy farming is undergoing a critical transition from extensive to industrial systems. To achieve sustainable milk production within China\'s dual-carbon goals, understanding the multidimensional impacts of industrialization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is imperative. This study comprehensively analyzed the implications of China\'s dairy industrialization on GHG emissions and explored future mitigation potential. Results indicated that industrial systems exhibited lower methane but higher carbon dioxide intensities, with net GHG intensity lower than other systems. During 2002-2020, China\'s milk production increased by 165%, while GHG emissions increased by 105% to 50.27 Tg CO2eq, accompanying an industrialization rate increased from 16% to 75%. The industrialization progress played a mitigating effect on GHG primarily through intensification within individual production systems before 2008 and transformation between systems post-2008. However, the industrialization\'s effect was relatively modest compared to other socio-economic factors. By 2030, 11.8 Tg CO2eq will be triggered by predicted milk production growth, but only 0.6 Tg can be offset by system transformation. Integrating measures to improve feed, herd, and manure management on industrial farms could decouple GHG emissions from milk production and achieve a carbon peak before 2030. We suggest transforming to improved industrial systems as a necessary step toward sustainable livestock production.
摘要：
中国的奶牛养殖正经历着从粗放型到工业体系的关键转变。在中国的双碳目标范围内实现可持续的牛奶生产，了解工业化对温室气体(GHG)排放的多维影响势在必行。本研究全面分析了中国乳业产业化对温室气体排放的影响，并探讨了未来的减排潜力。结果表明，工业系统表现出较低的甲烷，但二氧化碳强度较高，净温室气体强度低于其他系统。在2002-2020年期间，中国的牛奶产量增长了165%，虽然温室气体排放量增加了105%，达到50.27TgCO2eq，伴随着工业化率从16%提高到75%。工业化进展主要通过2008年之前单个生产系统内的集约化和2008年之后的系统之间的转换来减轻温室气体的影响。然而,与其他社会经济因素相比，工业化的影响相对较小。到2030年，11.8TgCO2eq将由预测的牛奶产量增长引发，但只有0.6Tg可以通过系统转化来抵消。综合措施改善饲料，牛群，工业农场的粪肥管理可以使温室气体排放与牛奶生产脱钩，并在2030年之前达到碳峰值。我们建议向改善的工业系统转型，作为迈向可持续畜牧业生产的必要步骤。
