PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
There are numerous prognostic predictive models for evaluating mortality risk, but current scoring models might not fully cater to sepsis patients\' needs. This study developed and validated a new model for sepsis patients that is suitable for any care setting and accurately forecasts 28-day mortality. The derivation dataset, gathered from 20 hospitals between September 2019 and December 2021, contrasted with the validation dataset, collected from 15 hospitals from January 2022 to December 2022. In this study, 7436 patients were classified as members of the derivation dataset, and 2284 patients were classified as members of the validation dataset. The point system model emerged as the optimal model among the tested predictive models for foreseeing sepsis mortality. For community-acquired sepsis, the model\'s performance was satisfactory (derivation dataset AUC: 0.779, 95% CI 0.765-0.792; validation dataset AUC: 0.787, 95% CI 0.765-0.810). Similarly, for hospital-acquired sepsis, it performed well (derivation dataset AUC: 0.768, 95% CI 0.748-0.788; validation dataset AUC: 0.729, 95% CI 0.687-0.770). The calculator, accessible at https://avonlea76.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/ , is user-friendly and compatible. The new predictive model of sepsis mortality is user-friendly and satisfactorily forecasts 28-day mortality. Its versatility lies in its applicability to all patients, encompassing both community-acquired and hospital-acquired sepsis.
摘要：
有许多用于评估死亡风险的预后预测模型，但目前的评分模型可能无法完全满足脓毒症患者的需求。这项研究开发并验证了一种适用于任何护理环境的脓毒症患者的新模型，并准确预测了28天的死亡率。派生数据集，2019年9月至2021年12月从20家医院收集，与验证数据集形成对比，从2022年1月至2022年12月从15家医院收集。在这项研究中,7436名患者被归类为派生数据集的成员，和2284名患者被分类为验证数据集的成员。点系统模型是预测脓毒症死亡率的测试预测模型中的最佳模型。对于社区获得性败血症，模型性能令人满意(推导数据集AUC:0.779,95%CI0.765-0.792;验证数据集AUC:0.787,95%CI0.765-0.810).同样，医院获得性败血症，它表现良好(推导数据集AUC:0.768,95%CI0.748-0.788;验证数据集AUC:0.729,95%CI0.687-0.770).计算器,可访问https://avonlea76。shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/,是用户友好和兼容。脓毒症死亡率的新预测模型是用户友好的，并且可以令人满意地预测28天的死亡率。它的多功能性在于它适用于所有患者，包括社区获得性和医院获得性败血症。
