Abstract：
Clonorchiasis is a zoonotic disease mainly caused by eating raw fish and shrimp, and there is no vaccine to prevent it. More than 30 million people are infected worldwide, of which China alone accounts for about half, and is one of the countries most seriously affected by Clonorchiasis. In this work, we formulate a novel Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model to discuss the biological attributes of fish within authentic ecosystems and the complex lifecycle of Clonorchis sinensis. This model includes larval fish, adult fish, infected fish, humans, and cercariae. We derive the basic reproduction number and perform a rigorous stability analysis of the proposed model. Numerically, we use data from 2016 to 2021 in Guangxi, China, to discuss outbreaks of Clonorchiasis and obtain the basic reproduction number R0=1.4764. The fitted curve appropriately reflects the overall trend and replicates a low peak in the case number of Clonorchiasis. By reducing the release rate of cercariae in 2018, the fitted values of Clonorchiasis cases dropped rapidly and almost disappeared. If we decrease the transmission rate from infected fish to humans, Clonorchiasis can be controlled. Our studies also suggest that strengthening publicity education and cleaning water quality can effectively control the transmission of Clonorchiasis in Guangxi, China.
摘要：
华支睾吸虫病是一种人畜共患疾病，主要是通过食用生鱼和虾引起的，没有疫苗可以预防。全世界有超过三千万人被感染,其中仅中国就占了一半左右,是受华支睾吸虫病影响最严重的国家之一。在这项工作中,我们建立了一个新的常微分方程（ODE）模型，以讨论真实生态系统中鱼类的生物属性和华支睾吸虫的复杂生命周期。这个模型包括幼体鱼，成鱼,被感染的鱼,人类,和尾蚴.我们推导了基本再生数，并对所提出的模型进行了严格的稳定性分析。数字上,我们使用广西2016年至2021年的数据，中国,讨论华支睾吸虫病的爆发，并获得基本繁殖数R0=1.4764。拟合曲线适当地反映了总体趋势，并复制了华支睾吸虫病病例数的低峰。通过降低2018年尾蚴的释放率，华支睾吸虫病病例的拟合值迅速下降，几乎消失。如果我们降低从受感染鱼类到人类的传播率，华支睾吸虫病是可以控制的。我们的研究还表明，加强宣传教育和清洁水质可以有效地控制广西华支睾吸虫病的传播。中国。
