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Abstract：
This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of expectations and belief reversals in a evolutionary and complexity economics framework. It formulates its analysis in terms of the concept of reflexivity, drawing on the ideas regarding reflexivity in financial markets of George Soros, and lays out a model of how a financial cycle expresses a systematic pattern of interacting feedback effects. The paper develops this analysis as a complex interaction between sets of heterogeneous expectations derived from the behavior of reflexive economic agents. Positive and negative feedback phases in a cycle are distinguished and associated with boom and bust stages of that cycle. A central role is played by agents\' beliefs and judgments underlying their expectations, and how those beliefs and judgments in uncertain circumstances are changeable and subject to abrupt reversals which can manifest themselves in \"Minsky moments.\" The paper argues that agents\' belief reversals result from their misconceptions about causal processes in booms and upswings, a misconception that reflects their tendency to think causally in terms of negative feedback patterns rather than positive ones.
摘要：
本文旨在为进化和复杂性经济学框架中的期望和信念逆转分析做出贡献。它根据反身性的概念来进行分析，借鉴乔治·索罗斯关于金融市场反身性的想法，并展示了一个金融周期如何表达相互作用反馈效应的系统模式的模型。本文将此分析发展为从自反经济主体的行为得出的异质期望集之间的复杂相互作用。周期中的正反馈阶段和负反馈阶段是有区别的，并且与该周期的繁荣和萧条阶段相关联。代理人的信念和判断是他们期望的基础，以及在不确定的情况下，这些信念和判断是如何变化的，并受到突然逆转的影响，这些逆转可以在“明斯基时刻”中表现出来。“论文认为，代理人的信念逆转是由于他们对繁荣和上升中的因果过程的误解，一种误解，反映了他们倾向于以负反馈模式而不是积极反馈模式进行因果关系思考。
