Abstract：
The urban thermal environment undergoes significant influences from changes in land use/land cover (LULC). This article uses CA-ANN and ANN algorithms to forecast LULC and changes in the urban thermal environment in Nanjing for the years 2030 and 2040. It investigates the interplay between LULC changes, land surface temperature (LST), and the urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI). The findings reveal that urban land exhibited a significant expansion trend from 2000 to 2019, reaching 1083.43 km2 in 2019. The forecast indicates that urban land may increase by 8.79% and 10.92% by 2030 and 2040, respectively. Conversely, vegetation and bare land may decrease. The LST is likely to continue to rise, accompanied by a significant expansion of the high temperature range and a contraction of the low temperature range. By 2030 and 2040, the area with LST<20 °C is likely to decrease by 2.17% and 3.19%, while the area with LST>30 °C is likely to expand by 5.68% and 8.08%, respectively. The UTFVI area of urban land may decrease at none and middle levels but may notably expand at stronger and strongest levels. The areas with UTFVI at none, weak, and middle levels show a declining trend, while the increase in UTFVI at the strong level may exceed 46.29% and the strongest level of UTFVI may continue to expand. This study offers new insights into urban sustainable development and thermal environment governance.
摘要：
城市热环境受到土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）变化的重大影响。本文使用CA-ANN和ANN算法对2030年和2040年南京城市热环境的LULC和变化进行了预测。它调查了LULC变化之间的相互作用，地表温度（LST），和城市热场方差指数(UTFVI)。研究结果表明，2000年至2019年，城市用地呈现显著扩张趋势，2019年达到1083.43km2。预测表明，到2030年和2040年，城市土地可能分别增加8.79％和10.92％。相反，植被和裸露土地可能会减少。LST可能会继续上升，伴随着高温范围的显着扩展和低温范围的收缩。到2030年和2040年，LST<20°C的区域可能会减少2.17％和3.19％，而LST>30°C的区域可能会扩大5.68%和8.08%，分别。城市土地的UTFVI面积可能在无水平和中等水平上减少，但可能会以更强和最强的水平显着扩大。没有UTFVI的地区，弱,中层呈现下降趋势，而UTFVI在强势水平的增幅可能超过46.29%，UTFVI的最强水平可能继续扩大。这项研究为城市可持续发展和热环境治理提供了新的见解。
