Abstract：
The use and manufacture of methamphetamine has increased in Afghanistan in recent years. Recent research and reports have pointed to the ephedra plant, which grows wildly, as a key source of ephedrine used in the manufacture of methamphetamine. This paper aimed to estimate the relative efficiencies and scale of inputs required to manufacture methamphetamine in Afghanistan.
Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals.
For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7 t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed.
Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan\'s methamphetamine.
Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals.
For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8 kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6 kg) needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9 kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8 kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7 t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed.
Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1 kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan\'s methamphetamine.
摘要：
目标：近年来，阿富汗甲基苯丙胺的使用和制造有所增加。最近的研究和报道指出了麻黄植物，它疯狂地生长，作为用于制造甲基苯丙胺的麻黄碱的主要来源。本文旨在估计阿富汗制造甲基苯丙胺所需投入的相对效率和规模。
方法：蒙特卡洛模拟阿富汗提供一公斤纯甲基苯丙胺所需的麻黄或感冒药量模型，考虑从文献和其他地方获得的关键参数范围的不确定性。最终估计数外推至最近的缉获总数。
结果：对于干麻黄，产生1kg甲基苯丙胺所需的估计值中位数为196.8kg(第25-75百分位数119.3-346.6kg),而感冒药则为27.9kg(第25-75百分位数21.9-36.8kg).2021年，阿富汗缉获了近2.7吨甲基苯丙胺。假设纯度范围为50%-90%，大约266-478吨干麻黄或38-68吨感冒药需要加工。
结论：模拟估计表明，在阿富汗生产1公斤甲基苯丙胺需要大量的麻黄或感冒药。这引起了人们对麻黄作为阿富汗甲基苯丙胺的主要来源的合理性的质疑。
方法：蒙特卡洛模拟阿富汗提供一公斤纯甲基苯丙胺所需的麻黄或感冒药量模型，考虑从文献和其他地方获得的关键参数范围的不确定性。最终估计数外推至最近的缉获总数。
结果：对于干麻黄，产生1kg甲基苯丙胺所需的估计值中位数为196.8kg(第25-75百分位数119.3-346.6kg),而感冒药则为27.9kg(第25-75百分位数21.9-36.8kg).2021年，阿富汗缉获了近2.7吨甲基苯丙胺。假设纯度范围为50%-90%，大约266-478吨干麻黄或38-68吨感冒药需要加工。
结论：模拟估计表明，在阿富汗生产1公斤甲基苯丙胺需要大量的麻黄或感冒药。这引起了人们对麻黄作为阿富汗甲基苯丙胺的主要来源的合理性的质疑。
