PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.
METHODS: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.
RESULTS: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.
CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.
METHODS: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.
RESULTS: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.
CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.
摘要：
目标：通过估计超额死亡率，在国家以下一级衡量2020年COVID-19大流行的负担，定义为全因死亡率相对于预期基线死亡率水平的增加.
方法：由21个欧洲国家的生命统计系统为中欧和西欧的561个地区提供的区域全因死亡率数据的统计和人口统计学分析。估计了男性和女性在0岁和60岁时的预期寿命损失。
结果：我们在391个地区发现了预期寿命下降的证据，而2020年只有三个地区的预期寿命显着提高。对于12个地区，预期寿命损失达2年以上，三个地区的预期寿命损失超过3年。我们强调了意大利北部高死亡率的地理集群，西班牙和波兰,虽然在法国西部发现了低死亡率的集群，德国/丹麦和挪威/瑞典。
结论：预期寿命损失的地区差异令人印象深刻，从亏损4年以上到收益8个月不等。这些发现为区域分析提供了强有力的理由，因为国家估计隐藏了巨大的地区差异。
方法：由21个欧洲国家的生命统计系统为中欧和西欧的561个地区提供的区域全因死亡率数据的统计和人口统计学分析。估计了男性和女性在0岁和60岁时的预期寿命损失。
结果：我们在391个地区发现了预期寿命下降的证据，而2020年只有三个地区的预期寿命显着提高。对于12个地区，预期寿命损失达2年以上，三个地区的预期寿命损失超过3年。我们强调了意大利北部高死亡率的地理集群，西班牙和波兰,虽然在法国西部发现了低死亡率的集群，德国/丹麦和挪威/瑞典。
结论：预期寿命损失的地区差异令人印象深刻，从亏损4年以上到收益8个月不等。这些发现为区域分析提供了强有力的理由，因为国家估计隐藏了巨大的地区差异。
