Abstract：
The purpose of this paper is twofold: analyzing stationarity of energy consumption by source in the United States and studying their cycles and pairwise synchronization. We study a panel of nine time series of monthly energy consumption for the period 1973-2022. Four of the series (namely coal, natural gas, petroleum, and nuclear electric power consumption) are non-renewables, whereas the remaining ones (hydroelectric power, geothermal, biomass, solar, and wind energy consumption) are renewable energy sources. We employ a nonparametric, panel stationarity testing approach. The results indicate that most of the series may be trend-stationarity, with nuclear and geothermal energy consumption being the only exceptions. Additionally, a study on potential cycles in the series of energy consumption by source is carried out, and subsequently we analyze pairwise concordance between states of different energy sources and between states of energy sources and the business cycle. Significant correlations are detected in the latter analysis, which are positive in the case of fossil fuel sources and negative for two renewable sources, namely geothermal and biomass energy consumption.
摘要：
本文的目的是双重的：分析美国能源消耗的平稳性，研究其周期和成对同步。我们研究了1973-2022年期间每月能源消耗的九个时间序列。系列中的四个(即煤炭，天然气,石油,和核电消耗)是不可再生能源，而其余的(水力发电，地热,生物量，太阳能,和风能消费)是可再生能源。我们使用非参数，面板平稳性测试方法。结果表明，大多数系列可能是趋势平稳性的，核能和地热能的消耗是唯一的例外。此外,进行了一系列能源消耗中潜在循环的研究，随后，我们分析了不同能源状态之间以及能源状态与商业周期之间的成对一致性。在后一种分析中检测到显著的相关性，对于化石燃料来源是积极的，对于两种可再生能源是消极的，即地热和生物质能消费。
