Abstract：
BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is a key pathogenetic factor that contributes to the deterioration of kidney function. However, the incidence trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied; therefore, we aimed to analyze the global, regional, and national patterns, temporal trends as well as burden of hypertension-related CKD.
METHODS: We extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD.
RESULTS: In 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.
CONCLUSIONS: Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.
METHODS: We extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD.
RESULTS: In 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.
CONCLUSIONS: Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.
摘要：
背景：高血压是导致肾功能恶化的关键致病因素。然而,高血压相关性慢性肾脏病(CKD)的发病趋势研究较少,我们旨在分析全球，区域,和国家模式，高血压相关CKD的时间趋势和负担。
方法：我们从全球疾病负担（GBD）研究数据库中提取了高血压相关CKD的数据，包括发病率，患病率,残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，死亡率和死亡率(每10万人)，并根据年份进一步描述，location,性别,年龄,社会人口指数（SDI）。计算估计的年度百分比变化（EAPC）以评估发病率的变化，DALYs,和死亡率。我们使用了年龄-周期-队列(APC)模型框架来分析按年龄划分的患病率的潜在趋势，period,和出生队列。进行NordpredAPC分析以预测高血压相关CKD的未来发病率和死亡率。
结果：2019年，全球报告了超过157万例新的高血压相关CKD病例，比1990年增加161.97%。与1990年相比，2019年所有21个地区的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）均有所增加。在除冰岛以外的所有国家和地区，ASIR中的EAPC及其下边界的95%置信区间(CI)均高于0。ASIR,年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)，年龄标准化DALYs比率(ASDR)，2019年，不同SDI地区的国家的年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)并不相同；此外，2019年，ASIR和ASMR在所有SDI地区的性别差异显著。到2044年，全球预测的发病率和死亡率继续增加，男性和女性的ASIR呈上升趋势。
结论：在1990年至2019年之间，高血压相关性CKD的ASIR呈上升趋势，根据我们的预测,在接下来的25年里，它将继续上升。随着全球人口的显著增长，老化，越来越多的高血压患者，高血压相关CKD引起的疾病负担持续增加.
方法：我们从全球疾病负担（GBD）研究数据库中提取了高血压相关CKD的数据，包括发病率，患病率,残疾调整寿命年(DALYs)，死亡率和死亡率(每10万人)，并根据年份进一步描述，location,性别,年龄,社会人口指数（SDI）。计算估计的年度百分比变化（EAPC）以评估发病率的变化，DALYs,和死亡率。我们使用了年龄-周期-队列(APC)模型框架来分析按年龄划分的患病率的潜在趋势，period,和出生队列。进行NordpredAPC分析以预测高血压相关CKD的未来发病率和死亡率。
结果：2019年，全球报告了超过157万例新的高血压相关CKD病例，比1990年增加161.97%。与1990年相比，2019年所有21个地区的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）均有所增加。在除冰岛以外的所有国家和地区，ASIR中的EAPC及其下边界的95%置信区间(CI)均高于0。ASIR,年龄标准化患病率(ASPR)，年龄标准化DALYs比率(ASDR)，2019年，不同SDI地区的国家的年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)并不相同；此外，2019年，ASIR和ASMR在所有SDI地区的性别差异显著。到2044年，全球预测的发病率和死亡率继续增加，男性和女性的ASIR呈上升趋势。
结论：在1990年至2019年之间，高血压相关性CKD的ASIR呈上升趋势，根据我们的预测,在接下来的25年里，它将继续上升。随着全球人口的显著增长，老化，越来越多的高血压患者，高血压相关CKD引起的疾病负担持续增加.
