PDF(Pubmed)
Abstract：
Survival and gonotrophic cycle duration are important determinants of the vectorial capacity of malaria vectors but there are a limited number of approaches to estimate these quantities from field data. Time-series of observations of mosquitoes at different stages in the life-cycle are under-used.
Anopheles funestus mosquitoes were caught using various methods over a 7.6-year period in Furvela, Mozambique. Survival and oviposition cycle duration were estimated using (i) an existing time-series approach for analysing dissections of mosquitoes caught in light-traps, extended to allow for variability in the duration of the cycle; (ii) an established approach for estimating cycle duration from resting collection data; (iii) a novel time-series approach fitted to numbers and categories of mosquitoes caught in exit-traps.
Data were available from 7,396, 6,041 and 1,527 trap-nights for exit-traps, light-traps and resting collections respectively. Estimates of cycle duration varied considerably between the different methods. The estimated proportion of female mosquitoes surviving each day of 0.740 (95% credible interval [0.650-0.815]) derived from light-trap data was much lower than the estimated daily survival of male mosquitoes from the model fitted to exit-trap data (0.881, 95% credible interval [0.747-0.987]). There was no tendency for the oviposition cycle to become shorter at higher temperature while the odds of survival of females through the cycle was estimated to be multiplied by 1.021 for every degree of mean weekly temperature increase (95% credible interval [0.991-1.051]). There was negligible temperature dependence and little inter-annual variation in male survival.
The time-series approach fitted to the exit-traps suggests that male An. funestus have higher survival than do females, and that male survival was temperature independent and unaffected by the introduction of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The patterns of temperature dependence in females are at variance with results of laboratory studies. Time series approaches have the advantage for estimating survival that they do not depend on representative sampling of mosquitoes over the whole year. However, the estimates of oviposition cycle duration were associated with considerable uncertainty, which appears to be due to variability between insects in the duration of the resting period, and the estimates based on exit-trap data are sensitive to assumptions about relative trapping efficiencies.
Anopheles funestus mosquitoes were caught using various methods over a 7.6-year period in Furvela, Mozambique. Survival and oviposition cycle duration were estimated using (i) an existing time-series approach for analysing dissections of mosquitoes caught in light-traps, extended to allow for variability in the duration of the cycle; (ii) an established approach for estimating cycle duration from resting collection data; (iii) a novel time-series approach fitted to numbers and categories of mosquitoes caught in exit-traps.
Data were available from 7,396, 6,041 and 1,527 trap-nights for exit-traps, light-traps and resting collections respectively. Estimates of cycle duration varied considerably between the different methods. The estimated proportion of female mosquitoes surviving each day of 0.740 (95% credible interval [0.650-0.815]) derived from light-trap data was much lower than the estimated daily survival of male mosquitoes from the model fitted to exit-trap data (0.881, 95% credible interval [0.747-0.987]). There was no tendency for the oviposition cycle to become shorter at higher temperature while the odds of survival of females through the cycle was estimated to be multiplied by 1.021 for every degree of mean weekly temperature increase (95% credible interval [0.991-1.051]). There was negligible temperature dependence and little inter-annual variation in male survival.
The time-series approach fitted to the exit-traps suggests that male An. funestus have higher survival than do females, and that male survival was temperature independent and unaffected by the introduction of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The patterns of temperature dependence in females are at variance with results of laboratory studies. Time series approaches have the advantage for estimating survival that they do not depend on representative sampling of mosquitoes over the whole year. However, the estimates of oviposition cycle duration were associated with considerable uncertainty, which appears to be due to variability between insects in the duration of the resting period, and the estimates based on exit-trap data are sensitive to assumptions about relative trapping efficiencies.
摘要：
■存活和促性腺激素周期持续时间是疟疾病媒矢量能力的重要决定因素，但从现场数据估计这些量的方法有限。蚊子在生命周期不同阶段的时间序列观测没有得到充分利用。
■在Furvela的7.6年中，使用各种方法捕获了按蚊蚊子，莫桑比克。使用（i）现有的时间序列方法来分析捕获在陷阱中的蚊子的解剖，估计了生存和产卵周期的持续时间。扩展以允许周期持续时间的可变性；（ii）根据静息收集数据估算周期持续时间的既定方法；（iii）一种新颖的时间序列方法，适用于捕获在出口陷阱中的蚊子的数量和类别。
■可从7,396、6,041和1,527个陷阱-晚上获得出口陷阱的数据，光陷阱和休息收集分别。不同方法之间对循环持续时间的估计差异很大。从光阱数据得出的每天存活的雌性蚊子的估计比例为0.740（95％可信间隔[0.650-0.815]），远低于从模型拟合的雄性蚊子的每日存活率退出陷阱数据（0.881，95％可信间隔[0.747-0.987]）。在较高的温度下，产卵周期没有变短的趋势，而每周平均温度每升高一度，雌性在整个周期中的存活几率估计为1.021倍（95％可信间隔[0.991-1.051]）。男性生存的温度依赖性可以忽略不计，年际变化很小。
■适合于出口陷阱的时间序列方法表明，雄性An。Funestus的存活率比雌性高，男性的生存与温度无关，不受长效杀虫网（LLINs）的引入的影响。女性的温度依赖性模式与实验室研究结果不同。时间序列方法具有估计存活率的优势,因为它们不依赖于蚊子在全年的代表性采样。然而,产卵周期持续时间的估计与相当大的不确定性有关，这似乎是由于昆虫在休息期间的变化，并且基于出口陷阱数据的估计对有关相对陷阱效率的假设很敏感。
■在Furvela的7.6年中，使用各种方法捕获了按蚊蚊子，莫桑比克。使用（i）现有的时间序列方法来分析捕获在陷阱中的蚊子的解剖，估计了生存和产卵周期的持续时间。扩展以允许周期持续时间的可变性；（ii）根据静息收集数据估算周期持续时间的既定方法；（iii）一种新颖的时间序列方法，适用于捕获在出口陷阱中的蚊子的数量和类别。
■可从7,396、6,041和1,527个陷阱-晚上获得出口陷阱的数据，光陷阱和休息收集分别。不同方法之间对循环持续时间的估计差异很大。从光阱数据得出的每天存活的雌性蚊子的估计比例为0.740（95％可信间隔[0.650-0.815]），远低于从模型拟合的雄性蚊子的每日存活率退出陷阱数据（0.881，95％可信间隔[0.747-0.987]）。在较高的温度下，产卵周期没有变短的趋势，而每周平均温度每升高一度，雌性在整个周期中的存活几率估计为1.021倍（95％可信间隔[0.991-1.051]）。男性生存的温度依赖性可以忽略不计，年际变化很小。
■适合于出口陷阱的时间序列方法表明，雄性An。Funestus的存活率比雌性高，男性的生存与温度无关，不受长效杀虫网（LLINs）的引入的影响。女性的温度依赖性模式与实验室研究结果不同。时间序列方法具有估计存活率的优势,因为它们不依赖于蚊子在全年的代表性采样。然而,产卵周期持续时间的估计与相当大的不确定性有关，这似乎是由于昆虫在休息期间的变化，并且基于出口陷阱数据的估计对有关相对陷阱效率的假设很敏感。
