Abstract：
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the third leading cause of death worldwide. As the traditional risk factors (like smoking and ambient air pollution) on the burden of COPD being well characterized, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature has been widely concerned. In this study, we extracted the relevant burden data of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature from GBD 2019 and adopted estimated annual percent changes, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and age-period-cohort model to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns, relationships with socio-demographic level, and the independent effects of age, period and cohort from 1990 to 2019. In brief, the global COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures showed declining trends but was still more severe in the elderly, males, Asia, and regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI). And cold had a greater burden than heat. The inverted U-shape is expected for the relationship between SDI and the burden of COPD caused by non-optimal temperatures according to the GPR model, with the inflection point around SDI 0.45. Besides, the improvements were observed in period and cohort effects but were relatively limited in low and low-middle SDI regions. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen this burden predominantly among lower SDI countries.
摘要：
慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）已成为全球第三大死亡原因。由于传统的危险因素（如吸烟和环境空气污染）对COPD的负担有很好的表征，非适宜体温引起的COPD负担一直受到广泛关注。在这项研究中,我们从GBD2019中提取了归因于非最佳温度的COPD的相关负担数据，并采用了估计的年度百分比变化，高斯过程回归(GPR)，和年龄-周期-队列模型来评估时空模式，与社会人口统计水平的关系，以及年龄的独立影响，1990年至2019年的时期和队列。简而言之,由于非最佳温度导致的全球COPD负担呈下降趋势，但老年人的负担仍然更为严重，男性,亚洲,和社会人口指数(SDI)较低的地区。寒冷比热有更大的负担。根据GPR模型，预计SDI与非最佳温度引起的COPD负担之间的关系为倒U形。拐点在SDI0.45左右。此外,在经期效应和队列效应中观察到改善,但在低SDI和中低SDI区域相对有限.公共卫生管理人员应执行更有针对性的计划，以减轻主要在SDI较低国家中的负担。
