Abstract：
The adoption of fiscal policies based on the specific taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been recommended by international health agencies, as they are measures that potentially reduce consumption. This study is an ex ante risk comparison that estimates the impact of three tax scenarios (20, 25, and 30%) with a 100% pass-on rate to SSBs on the prevalence of high weight and obesity in the Brazilian population. Data on the consumption habits, weight, and height of 46,164 adults aged 20 years or over from Brazilian recent national surveys were used. The shift in consumption after taxation was estimated based on the price elasticity of the demand. The percentage changes in overweight for 20, 25, and 30% taxation were 1.84% (95%CI: 1.82; 1.86), 1.89% (95%CI: 1.87; 1.90), and 2.25% (95%CI: 2.24; 2.27), respectively. The change in the prevalence of obesity was 1.93% (95%CI: 1.87; 2.00), 2.90% (95%CI: 2.80; 3.02), and 4.16% (95%CI: 4.01; 4.32), respectively. Taxes on SSBs may have a more favorable result among the heaviest consumers, who are young adults (20-29 years), especially men, thereby promoting a greater reduction in the prevalence of high weight and obesity.
摘要：
国际卫生机构建议采用基于含糖饮料（SSB）特定税收的财政政策，因为它们是可能减少消费的措施。这项研究是一项事前风险比较，估计了三种税收方案（20％，25％和30％）对SSB的100％转嫁率对巴西人口高体重和肥胖患病率的影响。有关消费习惯的数据，体重,根据巴西最近的国家调查，使用了46,164名20岁或以上的成年人的身高。根据需求的价格弹性估算了税后消费的变化。20％，25％和30％税收的超重百分比变化为1.84％（95CI：1.82；1.86），1.89%（95CI：1.87；1.90），和2.25%（95CI：2.24；2.27），分别。肥胖患病率的变化为1.93%(95CI:1.87;2.00),2.90%（95CI：2.80；3.02），和4.16%（95CI：4.01；4.32），分别。在最重的消费者中，对SSB征税可能会有更有利的结果，年轻人（20-29岁），尤其是男人,从而促进高体重和肥胖症患病率的更大降低。
