Abstract：
OBJECTIVE: At present, some studies have pointed out several possible climate drivers of bacillary dysentery. However, there is a complex nonlinear interaction between climate drivers and susceptible population in the spread of diseases, which makes it challenging to detect climate drivers at the size of susceptible population.
METHODS: By using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), the climate drivers of bacillary dysentery dynamic were explored in China\'s five temperature zones.
RESULTS: We verified the availability of climate drivers and susceptible population size on bacillary dysentery, and used this information for bacillary dysentery dynamic prediction. Moreover, we found that their respective effects increased with the increase of temperature and relative humidity, and their states (temperature and relative humidity) were different when they reached their maximum effects, and the negative effect between the effect of temperature and disease incidence increased with the change of temperature zone (from temperate zone to warm temperate zone to subtropical zone) and the climate driving effect of the temperate zone (warm temperate zone) was greater than that of the colder (temperate zone) and warmer (subtropics) zones. When we viewed from single temperature zone, the climatic effect arose only when the size of the susceptible pool was large.
CONCLUSIONS: These results provide empirical evidence that the climate factors on bacillary dysentery are nonlinear, complex but dependent on the size of susceptible populations and different climate scenarios.
METHODS: By using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), the climate drivers of bacillary dysentery dynamic were explored in China\'s five temperature zones.
RESULTS: We verified the availability of climate drivers and susceptible population size on bacillary dysentery, and used this information for bacillary dysentery dynamic prediction. Moreover, we found that their respective effects increased with the increase of temperature and relative humidity, and their states (temperature and relative humidity) were different when they reached their maximum effects, and the negative effect between the effect of temperature and disease incidence increased with the change of temperature zone (from temperate zone to warm temperate zone to subtropical zone) and the climate driving effect of the temperate zone (warm temperate zone) was greater than that of the colder (temperate zone) and warmer (subtropics) zones. When we viewed from single temperature zone, the climatic effect arose only when the size of the susceptible pool was large.
CONCLUSIONS: These results provide empirical evidence that the climate factors on bacillary dysentery are nonlinear, complex but dependent on the size of susceptible populations and different climate scenarios.
摘要：
目标：目前，一些研究指出了细菌性痢疾的几种可能的气候驱动因素。然而,在疾病传播中，气候驱动因素和易感人群之间存在复杂的非线性相互作用，这使得在易感人群的规模上检测气候驱动因素具有挑战性。
方法：通过使用经验动态建模(EDM)，探讨了中国五个温区细菌性痢疾动态的气候驱动因素。
结果：我们验证了气候驱动因素和易感人群对细菌性痢疾的可用性，并将这些信息用于细菌性痢疾的动态预测。此外，我们发现它们各自的效应随着温度和相对湿度的增加而增加，当它们达到最大效果时，它们的状态(温度和相对湿度)不同，随着温带(温带至暖温带至亚热带)的变化，温度效应与疾病发病率之间的负效应增加，温带(暖温带)的气候驱动效应大于较冷(温带)和较暖(亚热带)的气候驱动效应。当我们从单个温度区观察时，只有当易感池的大小很大时，气候效应才会出现。
结论：这些结果提供了经验证据，表明气候因素对细菌性痢疾的影响是非线性的，复杂，但取决于易感人群的规模和不同的气候情景。
方法：通过使用经验动态建模(EDM)，探讨了中国五个温区细菌性痢疾动态的气候驱动因素。
结果：我们验证了气候驱动因素和易感人群对细菌性痢疾的可用性，并将这些信息用于细菌性痢疾的动态预测。此外，我们发现它们各自的效应随着温度和相对湿度的增加而增加，当它们达到最大效果时，它们的状态(温度和相对湿度)不同，随着温带(温带至暖温带至亚热带)的变化，温度效应与疾病发病率之间的负效应增加，温带(暖温带)的气候驱动效应大于较冷(温带)和较暖(亚热带)的气候驱动效应。当我们从单个温度区观察时，只有当易感池的大小很大时，气候效应才会出现。
结论：这些结果提供了经验证据，表明气候因素对细菌性痢疾的影响是非线性的，复杂，但取决于易感人群的规模和不同的气候情景。
