Abstract：
The Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a critically endangered top predator that struggles on the brink of extinction due to threats such as canine distemper virus (CDV), habitat loss, and inbreeding depression. Here we develop a viability analysis metamodel that combines a traditional individual-based demographic model with an epidemiological model to assess the benefits of alternative population management actions in response to multiple distinct threats. Our results showed an extinction risk of 10.3%-99.9% if no management actions were taken over 100 years under different levels of inbreeding depression. Reducing the risk of CDV infection in Amur leopards through the low-coverage vaccination of leopards and the management of sympatric domestic dogs could effectively improve the survival probability of the leopard population, and with habitat expansion added to these management measures, the population expanded further. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur leopard necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort, and controlling multiple threats together may significantly escalate overall viability of a species, especially for small-isolated threatened population. More broadly, our modeling framework could offer critical perspectives and scientific support for conservation planning, as well as specific adaptive management actions for endangered species around the world.
摘要：
阿穆尔豹（Pantherapardusorientalis）是一种极度濒危的顶级捕食者，由于犬瘟热病毒（CDV）等威胁而濒临灭绝，栖息地丧失,和近交抑郁症。在这里，我们开发了一种可行性分析元模型，该模型将传统的基于个人的人口统计学模型与流行病学模型相结合，以评估针对多种不同威胁的替代人口管理行动的好处。我们的结果表明，如果在近交抑郁的不同水平下不采取100年以上的管理措施，则灭绝风险为10.3％-99.9％。通过豹子低覆盖率的疫苗接种和同伴犬的管理，降低非洲豹子感染CDV的风险，可以有效提高豹子种群的生存概率。随着这些管理措施增加了栖息地的扩张，人口进一步扩大。我们的发现强调，保护阿穆尔豹需要多方面的协同努力，同时控制多种威胁可能会显著提升一个物种的整体生存能力，特别是对孤立的受威胁人口。更广泛地说,我们的建模框架可以为保护规划提供关键的观点和科学支持，以及针对世界各地濒危物种的特定适应性管理行动。
