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Abstract：
The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential impacts of different COVID-19 scenarios on the Italian energy sector through 2030, with a specific focus on transport and industry. The analysis takes a multi-disciplinary approach to properly consider the complex interactions of sectors across Italy. This approach includes the assessment of economic conditions using macroeconomic and input-output models, modelling the evolution of the energy system using an energy and transport model, and forecasting the reaction of travel demand and modal choice using econometric models and expert interviews. Results show that the effect of COVID-19 pandemic may lead to mid-term effects on energy consumption. The medium scenario, which assumes a stop of the emergency by the end of 2021, shows that energy-related emissions remain 10% lower than the baseline in the industry sector and 6% lower in the transport sector by 2030, when compared with a pre-COVID trend. Policy recommendations to support a green recovery are discussed in light of the results.
摘要：
本文的目的是估计到2030年不同COVID-19情景对意大利能源部门的潜在影响，特别侧重于运输和工业。该分析采用多学科方法来适当考虑意大利各部门之间复杂的相互作用。这种方法包括使用宏观经济和投入产出模型评估经济状况，使用能量和运输模型对能源系统的演变进行建模，并利用计量经济模型和专家访谈预测出行需求和方式选择的反应。结果表明，COVID-19大流行的影响可能会对能源消耗产生中期影响。中等场景，假设紧急情况在2021年底停止，这表明，与COVID之前的趋势相比，到2030年，工业部门与能源相关的排放量仍比基线低10%，交通部门低6%。根据结果讨论了支持绿色复苏的政策建议。
