Abstract：
Meteorological parameters modulate transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the causative agent related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) development. However, findings across the globe have been inconsistent attributed to several confounding factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between reported meteorological parameters from July 1 to October 31, 2020, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 4 Brazilian cities: São Paulo, the largest city with the highest number of cases in Brazil, and the cities with greater number of cases in the state of Parana during the study period (Curitiba, Londrina and Maringa). The assessment of meteorological factors with confirmed COVID-19 cases included atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar irradiation, sunlight, dew point temperature, and total precipitation. The 7- and 15-day moving averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained for each city. Pearson\'s correlation coefficients showed significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and all meteorological parameters, except for total precipitation, with the strongest correlation with maximum wind speed (0.717, <0.001) in São Paulo. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with wind speed (between ≥0.3381 and <1.173 m/s), atmospheric pressure (<930.5mb), and solar radiation (<17.98e+3). Lower number of cases was observed for wind speed <0.3381 m/s and temperature <23.86°C. Our results encourage the use of meteorological information as a critical component in future risk assessment models.
摘要：
气象参数调节SARS-Cov-2病毒的传播，与冠状病毒病-2019（COVID-19）发展相关的病原体。然而,全球的调查结果不一致，归因于几个混杂因素。本研究的目的是调查2020年7月1日至10月31日报告的气象参数与巴西4个城市确诊的COVID-19病例数量之间的关系：圣保罗，巴西病例最多的城市，以及研究期间巴拉那州病例数量较多的城市(库里蒂巴，Londrina和Maringa）。对确诊COVID-19病例的气象因素评估包括大气压力，温度,相对湿度,风速,太阳辐射，阳光,露点温度,和总降水量。获得每个城市确诊COVID-19病例的7天和15天移动平均值。皮尔逊相关系数显示COVID-19病例与所有气象参数之间存在显著相关性，除了总降水量，圣保罗与最大风速(0.717，<0.001)的相关性最强。回归树分析表明，确诊的COVID-19病例数量最多与风速相关（在≥0.3381和<1.173m/s之间），大气压（<930.5mb），和太阳辐射（<17.98e+3）。对于风速<0.3381m/s和温度<23.86°C，观察到的情况较少。我们的结果鼓励使用气象信息作为未来风险评估模型的关键组成部分。
