PDF(Sci-hub)
Abstract：
Assessing water supply capacity is crucial to meet stakeholders\' needs, notably in the Mediterranean region. This region has been identified as a climate change hot spot, and as a region where water demand is continuously increasing due to population growth and the expansion of irrigated areas. The Hérault River catchment (2500 km(2), France) is a typical example and a negative trend in discharge has been observed since the 1960s. In this context, local stakeholders need first to understand the processes controlling the evolution of water resources and demands in the past to latter evaluate future water supply capacity and anticipate the tensions users could be confronted to in the future. A modelling framework is proposed at a 10-day time step to assess whether water resources have been able to meet water demands over the last 50 years. Water supply was evaluated using hydrological modelling and a dam management model. Water demand dynamics were estimated for the domestic and agricultural sectors. A water supply capacity index is computed to assess the extent and the frequency to which water demand has been satisfied at the sub-basin scale. Simulated runoff dynamics were in good agreement with observations over the calibration and validation periods. Domestic water demand has increased considerably since the 1980s and is characterized by a seasonal peak in summer. Agricultural demand has increased in the downstream sub-basins and decreased upstream where irrigated areas have decreased. As a result, although most water demands were satisfied between 1961 and 1980, irrigation requirements in summer have sometimes not been satisfied since the 1980s. This work is the first step toward evaluating possible future changes in water allocation capacity in the catchment, using future climate change, dam management and water use scenarios.
摘要：
评估供水能力对于满足利益相关者的需求至关重要，特别是在地中海地区。该地区已被确定为气候变化热点，以及由于人口增长和灌溉面积的扩大，对水的需求不断增加的地区。赫罗特河集水区(2500公里(2),法国）是一个典型的例子，自1960年代以来一直观察到排放的负面趋势。在这种情况下，当地利益攸关方首先需要了解过去控制水资源和需求演变的过程，以评估未来的供水能力，并预测用户未来可能面临的紧张局势。提出了一个为期10天的建模框架，以评估水资源在过去50年中是否能够满足水的需求。使用水文模型和大坝管理模型评估了供水。估计了家庭和农业部门的水需求动态。计算供水能力指数以评估子流域规模上满足水需求的程度和频率。模拟径流动态与校准和验证期间的观测结果非常吻合。自1980年代以来，国内用水需求大幅增加，其特点是夏季出现季节性高峰。下游子盆地的农业需求增加，而灌溉面积减少的上游则减少。因此,尽管在1961年至1980年之间满足了大多数水需求，但自1980年代以来，夏季的灌溉需求有时无法满足。这项工作是评估流域未来水资源分配能力可能变化的第一步，利用未来的气候变化，大坝管理和用水方案。
