Bayes factor hypothesis testing provides a powerful framework for assessing the evidence in favor of competing hypotheses. To obtain Bayes factors, statisticians often require advanced, non-standard tools, making it important to confirm that the methodology is computationally sound. This paper seeks to validate Bayes factor calculations by applying two theorems attributed to Alan Turing and Jack Good. The procedure entails simulating data sets under two hypotheses, calculating Bayes factors, and assessing whether their expected values align with theoretical expectations. We illustrate this method with an ANOVA example and a network psychometrics application, demonstrating its efficacy in detecting calculation errors and confirming the computational correctness of the Bayes factor results. This structured validation approach aims to provide researchers with a tool to enhance the credibility of Bayes factor hypothesis testing, fostering more robust and trustworthy scientific inferences.

Force Health Protection programs in the U.S. Air Force endeavor to sustain the operational readiness of the warfighters. We have previously identified hundreds of chemical substances of interest and toxicity reference value (TRV) knowledge gaps that constrain risk based-decision-making for potential exposures. Multiple approaches to occupational TRV estimation were used to generate possible guideline values for 84 compounds (18% of the substances of interest). These candidate TRVs included values from international databases, chemical similarity (nearest neighbor) approaches, empirical adjustments to account for duration differences, quantitative activity relationships, and thresholds of toxicological concern. This present work describes derivation of provisional TRVs from these candidate values. Rodent bioassay-derived long-term worker Derived No-Effect Levels (DNELs) were deemed presumptively the most reliable, but only 19 such DNELs were available for the 84 substances with TRV gaps. In the absence of DNELs, the quality of the approaches and consistency among candidate values were key elements of the weight of evidence used to select the most suitable guideline values. The use of novel nearest-neighbor approaches, empirical adjustment of short term TRVs, and occupational exposure bands were found to be options that would allow occupational TRV estimation with reasonable confidence for nearly all substances evaluated.

A flexible approach is described for incorporating a weight-of-evidence (WoE) methodology into a tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA)/management framework for chemicals. The approach is oriented toward informing decisions about chemicals. Communication is regarded as a critical component of the risk assessment process. The paper resulted from insights gained from seven ERA workshops held by SETAC (Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, www.setac.org) in the Asia-Pacific, African, and Latin American regions. Formal ERA methods are not fully developed or applied in many of these countries and assessments often begin with tables of risk values and test methods from countries where ERA is already implemented. While appropriate and sometimes necessary, workshop participants had questions about the reliability and relevance of using this information for regionally specific ecosystems with different receptors, fate processes, and exposure characteristics. The idea that an assessment of reliability and relevance of available information and the need for additional information was necessary at an early stage of the assessment process was considered. The judgment of reliability and relevance is central to WoE approaches along with the identification of information needs and the integration of such information. The need to engage in WoE considerations early and throughout the assessment process indicates that a tiered approach is appropriate for unifying the evaluation process in a consistent way from early screening-level steps to later more involved evaluations. The approach outlined in this article is complementary to WoE guidance developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and many national guidance documents. To link assessments of risk to management decisions, emphasis is given to communications at each tier between the risk assessor (technical side) and the decision-makers (policy and regulatory side). Tools and information sources are suggested for each tier and suggestions are meant to be illustrative and not prescriptive. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1-15. © 2024 SETAC.

The mission of the Force Health Protection (FHP) program of the U.S. Air Force (USAF), sustaining the readiness of warfighters, relies on determinations of acceptable levels of exposure to a wide array of substances that USAF personnel may encounter. In many cases, exposure details are limited or authoritative toxicity reference values (TRVs) are unavailable. To address some of the TRV gaps, we are integrating several approaches to generate health protective exposure guidelines. Descriptions are provided for identification of chemicals of interest for USAF FHP (467 to date), synthesis of multiple TRVs to derive Operational Exposure Limits (OpELs), and strategies for identifying and developing candidate values for provisional OpELs when authoritative TRVs are lacking. Rodent bioassay-derived long-term Derived No Effect Levels (DNELs) for workers were available only for a minority of the substances with occupational TRV gaps (19 of 84). Additional occupational TRV estimation approaches were found to be straightforward to implement: Tier 1 Occupational Exposure Bands, cheminformatics approaches (multiple linear regression and novel nearest-neighbor approaches), and empirical adjustment of short term TRVs. Risk assessors working in similar contexts may benefit from application of the resources referenced and developed in this work.

The aim of embryo-fetal developmental toxicity assessments for pharmaceuticals is to inform potential risk of adverse pregnancy outcome, which has traditionally relied on studies in pregnant animals. Recent updates to international safety guidelines (ICH S5R3) have incorporated information on how to use weight of evidence and alternative assays to reduce animal use while still informing risk of fetal harm. Uptake of these alternative approaches has been slow due to limitations in understanding how alternative assays translate to in vivo effects and then relevance to human exposure. To understand the predictivity of new approach methodologies for developmental toxicity (DevTox NAMs), we used two pharmaceutical examples (glasdegib and lorlatinib) to illustrate the value of DevTox NAMs to complement weight of evidence (WoE) assessments while considering the relationship of concentration-effect levels in NAMs to in vivo studies. The in vitro results generated in a battery of assays (mEST, rWEC, zebrafish, and human based stem cells) confirmed the WoE based on literature and further confirmed by preliminary embryo-fetal development data. The data generated for these two compounds supports integrating DevTox NAMs into the developmental toxicity assessment for advanced cancer indications.

Nonclinical safety studies are typically conducted to establish a toxicity profile of a new pharmaceutical in clinical development. Such a profile may encompass multiple differing types of animal studies, or not! Some types of animal studies may not be warranted for a specific program or may only require a limited evaluation if scientifically justified. The goal of this course was to provide a practical perspective on regulatory writing of a dossier(s) using the weight of evidence (WOE) approach for carcinogenicity, drug abuse liability and pediatric safety assessments. These assessments are typically done after some clinical data are available and are highly bespoke to the pharmaceutical being developed. This manuscript will discuss key data elements to consider and strategy options with some case studies and examples. Additionally, US FDA experience with dossier(s) including WOE arguments is discussed.

The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has gained widespread acceptance in toxicological disciplines as a tool for aiding chemical hazard assessment. Despite increased activity in AOP development, progress towards a high volume of fully endorsed AOPs has been slow, partly due to the challenging task of constructing complete AOPs according to the AOP Developer\'s Handbook. To facilitate greater uptake of new knowledge units onto the open-source AOP-wiki platform, a pragmatic approach was recently proposed. This approach involves considering Key Event Relationships (KERs) for individual development through systematic approaches, as they represent essential units of knowledge from which causality can be inferred; from low complexity test data to adverse outcomes in intact organisms. However, more broadly adopted harmonized methodologies for KER development would be desirable. Using the AOP Developer\'s Handbook as a guide, a KER linking \'decreased androgen receptor (AR) activity\' with \'reduced anogenital distance (AGD)\' was developed to demonstrate a methodology applicable for future developments of KERs requiring systematic literature retrieval approaches.

The rodent cancer bioassays are conducted for agrochemical safety assessment yet they often do not inform regulatory decision-making. As part of a collaborative effort, the Rethinking Carcinogenicity Assessment for Agrochemicals Project (ReCAAP) developed a reporting framework to guide a weight of evidence (WOE)-based carcinogenicity assessment that demonstrates how to fulfill the regulatory requirements for chronic risk estimation without the need to conduct lifetime rodent bioassays. The framework is the result of a multi-stakeholder collaboration that worked through an iterative process of writing case studies (in the form of waivers), technical peer reviews of waivers, and an incorporation of key learnings back into the framework to be tested in subsequent case study development. The example waivers used to develop the framework were written retrospectively for registered agrochemical active substances for which the necessary data and information could be obtained through risk assessment documents or data evaluation records from the US EPA. This exercise was critical to the development of a framework, but it lacked authenticity in that the stakeholders reviewing the waiver already knew the outcome of the rodent cancer bioassay(s). Syngenta expanded the evaluation of the ReCAAP reporting framework by writing waivers for three prospective case studies for new active substances where the data packages had not yet been submitted for registration. The prospective waivers followed the established framework considering ADME, potential exposure, subchronic toxicity, genotoxicity, immunosuppression, hormone perturbation, mode of action (MOA), and all relevant information available for read-across using a WOE assessment. The point of departure was estimated from the available data, excluding the cancer bioassay results, with a proposed use for the chronic dietary risk assessment. The read-across assessments compared data from reliable registered chemical analogues to strengthen the prediction of chronic toxicity and/or tumorigenic potential. The prospective case studies represent a range of scenarios, from a new molecule in a well-established chemical class with a known MOA to a molecule with a new pesticidal MOA (pMOA) and limited read-across to related molecules. This effort represents an important step in establishing criteria for a WOE-based carcinogenicity assessment without the rodent cancer bioassay(s) while ensuring a health protective chronic dietary risk assessment.

This manuscript presents a procedure for similarity assessment as a basis for grouping of multi component nanomaterials (MCNMs). This methodology is an adaptation of the approach by Zabeo et al. (2022), which includes an impactful change: the calculated similarities are normalised in the [0,1] domain by means of asymmetric Logistic scaling to simplify comparisons among properties\' distances. This novel approach allows for grouping of nanomaterials that is not affected by the dataset, so that group membership will not change when new candidates are included in the set of assessed materials. It can be applied to assess groups of MCNMs as well as mixed groups of multi and single component nanomaterials as well as chemicals. To facilitate the application of the proposed methodology, a software script was developed by using the Python programming language, which is currently undergoing migration to a user-friendly web-based tool. The presented approach was tested against a real industrial case study provided by the Andalusian Innovation Centre for Sustainable Solution (CIAC): SiO2-ZnO hybrid nanocomposite used in building coatings, which is designed to facilitate photocatalytic removal of NOx gases from the atmosphere. The results of applying the methodology in the case study demonstrated that ZnO is dissimilar from the other candidates mainly due to its different dissolution profiles.

Identification of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) in a regulatory context requires a high level of evidence. However, lines of evidence (e.g. human, in vivo, in vitro or in silico) are heterogeneous and incomplete for quantifying evidence of the adverse effects and mechanisms involved. To date, for the regulatory appraisal of metabolism-disrupting chemicals (MDCs), no harmonised guidance to assess the weight of evidence has been developed at the EU or international level. To explore how to develop this, we applied a formal Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) approach within the European GOLIATH project. EKE captures expert judgment in a quantitative manner and provides an estimate of uncertainty of the final opinion. As a proof of principle, we selected one suspected MDC -triphenyl phosphate (TPP) - based on its related adverse endpoints (obesity/adipogenicity) relevant to metabolic disruption and a putative Molecular Initiating Event (MIE): activation of peroxisome proliferator activated receptor gamma (PPARγ). We conducted a systematic literature review and assessed the quality of the lines of evidence with two independent groups of experts within GOLIATH, with the objective of categorising the metabolic disruption properties of TPP, by applying an EKE approach. Having followed the entire process separately, both groups arrived at the same conclusion, designating TPP as a \"suspected MDC\" with an overall quantitative agreement exceeding 85%, indicating robust reproducibility. The EKE method provides to be an important way to bring together scientists with diverse expertise and is recommended for future work in this area.